Birchtree's Account Talk

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Another indicator that foreign markets may be poised to outperform their U.S. counterparts: global interest-rate movements. While the Federal Reserve raised rates another quarter point last week and indicated that it intends to keep raising them, in some major overseas markets - such as the United Kingdom - interest rates are holding steady and even falling. Rising rates tend to deflate stock-market performance. Investors who want to put more of their money into foreign stocks face several additional risks and expenses. For one thing. the fees on even the most straightforward investment - a mutual fund that invests in foreign markets - are considerably higher than for a domestic stock fund. Morningstar estimates that the average international mutual fund charges roughly an additional $19 annually in fees on a $10,000 investment.

In addition, there is the risk that currency swings will eat into profits. The vast majority of international funds don't hedge against exchange-rate swings. This year, for instance, the MSCI EAFE index has returned 14.6% in local-currency terms - but the U.S. dollar's rebound in 2005 has lopped off nearly 10 percentage points of that return when converted to dollars.

The last time foreign stocks took off like this, individual investors were largely stuck on the sidelines. Back then, investing abroad was largely the province of an elite circle of institutional investors in a position to deal with the complexities of buying and selling in foreign markets. This time around, individual investors have considerably more ways to join in. Today, for instance, there are more than 700 mutual funds dedicated to investing abroad, compared with just 55 in 1985, according to fund tracker Morningstar Inc. Investors have piled into these international funds even during times they have felt skittish about U.S. stocks. In each of the past six weeks, for instane, domestic-stock funds have suffered net outflows while foreign-stock funds have had inflows. In fact, AMG says that foreign stock funds have experienced outflows only one week this year.

The strong stock-market performance abroad reflects, among other things, an acceleration in corporate restructing in Europe and Japan. Tokyo's Nikkei Stock Average recently hit a four year high -a response to improving consumer demand, rising corporate spending and stronger earnings that attracted foreign investors. Across much of Europe, corporate cos-cutting and restructuring have enabled companies to increase profits, despite the considerable handicaps of weak domestic economies and a strong currency, which makes European exports less globally competitive. There definitely is a lot going on - the story in Europe and Japan is getting very compelling - stay tuned.
 
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Down the road, investors might look back on today's markets and bemoan that the best bargains were hiding in plain sight. In recent quarters, folks who invest other people's money for a living have complained that there are few sectors that stand out as no-brainers. But bargain hunters are shifting their attention to shares of some of the biggest and best known companies in the country. The reason: Many of these giants have seen their shares stagnate over the past five years, while business has chugged along nicely and broadly speaking - dividends have grown. Today you're seeing a lot of great companies trading at fair prices for the first time in a long time. This could be one of those situations where the answers are staring us in the face.

More than 20 of these companies with a market value of more than $5 billion posted operating cash flows over the most recent 12 months at least double those earned in 2000. Their shares, however, have lost ground over that stretch. While not an undisputed divining rod for solid businesses, operating cash flow can be a helpful metric because it focuses more directly on cash the business took in - after its expenses - on its core activities.

Investors have put faith and money in shares of smaller companies in recent years. The Russell 2000 Index, a common yardstick of small stocks, is narrowly on pace to top the S&P 500 stock index for the seventh year in a row. The problem is that no one seems to have noticed the improvements. Instead of starting a steady climb, shares of big companies haven't risen. The right time to be in the C fund approaches only quietly.
 
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A new wave of dividend-paying mutual funds is helping to bring Japan's stubbornly bearish individual investors back to the stock market. Foe the past decade and a half, most ordinary Japanese shunned stocks, disillusioned by a market that lost two-thirds of its value since its peak in 1989. Many Japanese thought stocks were for speculators, and stuck with safer investments like bank deposits and government bonds. In Japan, only 9% of household financial assets are invested in stocks or mutual funds, according to Bank of Japan statistics, compared with 46% in the U.S.

Without a core of domestic long-term investors, stock prices sank, then swung in recent years, as trading was dominated by opportunistic foreign investors and fast moving day traders. But as Japan's economy begins to recover and the market starts to rise, some ordinary investors are beginning to test the waters again. Most aren't bold enough to buy individual stocks; indeed, retail incestors sold $25.9 billion more of stock than they bought this year through the end of August, according to Tokyo Stock Exchange data. The selling came even as the benchmark Nikkei 225 has climbed 14% this year, supported primarily by foreign investors.

Individuals are being lured by a new type of mutual fund that invests in stocks that pay high dividends, and uses those dividends to make regular payments to investors, similar to the equity-income funds popular in the U.S. Fidelity this month unveiled a fund that targets Japanese stocks with prospects for strong dividend growth - the company's first Japanese stock fund in two years. In all, 26 mutual funds targeting high-dividend stocks have made their debuts since late last year and gathered 960 billion yen, or $8.6 billion, in total assets. Mutual funds bought 165 billion yen in Japanese stocks this year through Aug.26. During the same period, foreign investors, the biggest buyers of Japanese shares, poured in $50 billion.

Yet any sign of increased investment by mom and pop buyers is important. Attracting individuals will be key to keeping the Japanese stock market stable and helping to maintain its current upward momentum. With the economy improving, Japanese companies are earning more, meaning they can pay out more as well. According to J.P.Morgan estimates, the dividend-payout ratio, or the percentage of a company's earnings paid out as dividend, is expected to rise to 23% this year in Japan from 21% last year. Projections are the ratio will climb to around 30% by 2010, catching up with levels in the U.S.
 
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China and India are the future of the global economy. But Japan and Germany remain a very big part of its present. So the world and the U.S. economy, in particular, have a lot riding on the outcomes of elections in Japan and Germany. With populations larger than one billion each and economies that are shaking off old shackles, China and India correctly are seen as giants where the rest of the world can sell, produce and profit. But don't overlook the wprld's aging couple, Japan and Germany. Political changes in each could bring them to the cusp of a much-needed economic transformation.

The glare of Shanghai's neon rimmed office towers and the sophistication of Bangalore's software labs sometimes blind Americans to economic reality. The U.S. last year exported twice as much to Germany and Japan ($85.7 billion) as to China and India ($40.9 billion). Sales of U.S. companies in Germany and Japan, setting aside the origin of the goods or services, were more than six times as great as their sales in China and India. For all the hoopla about investing in China, U.S. companies invested $52.7 billion in Germany and Japan from 2000 to 2004, a little more than four times as much as the $13.1 billion they invested in China and India. For every dollar U.S. companies have invested in China lately, they have invested two in Japan.

China and India are the growth stocks. You can take an option on what they'll give you in the future. Germany and Japan are the value stocks. Like GE and 3M, they throw off the dividends. So it matters tiu the U.S. and the rest of the world that Japanese policies continue an encouraging economic trend. After a decade of stagnation, Japan finally may be overcoming deflation and crippled banks , and are now growing again.

I'll be updating my accounts Monday evening - September was actually better than August.
 
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Presently, or I should say as of Friday the oceanic account rests at $941K. September was a little better than August, but not by much. In August I lost $8K and in September I made $13K. During the first week of September I earned $26K, then proceeded to lose $13.5K the next week and another loss of $19.5K for the third week and finally the last week did provide redemption of $20.6K. So far October is setting up to be down, but that is probably a head fake, shake out the weak hands if possible. It's during times like these side ways go no where months that dividend reinvestment provides the silver thread for progress. When the BULL finally arrives I actually think I'll do better than I did in July on a consistant basis- the gain for July was $63K. So I really can't complain - patience is virtuous.

There have been some nice gains in the I fund over the last two months - most of the momentum appeared to originate from Japan. However the United Kingdom presents a 27.5% stake in the I fund and the FTSE-100 index recently closed above the 5500 mark for the first time in four years. When the euro is weak that gives a lift to European export stocks. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index, which tracks companies across Europe, rose to its highest close since April 17, 2002. Both the German DAX 30 Index and the French CAC-40 Index are at their strongest levels since April 2002.

If one looks at the graphs, there is total strength. I certainly can't believe there is anything but a normal correction at work presently - no Hindenberg Omen on my horizon. What the global markets are telling me is that the good ole U.S.A. will not be left behind for long and once fully awakened will certainly outperform the others, I'm putting my money on the C fund and staying focused to continue dollar cost averaging. I participate in the international arena with my wife's account so I have action on both fronts.
 
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Thomas Hoening of the Kansas City Federal Recerve Bank said "So there is this issue of inflation, not that we have it because 2.2% core inflation is a modest level, but we don't want it to get higher than that because then we start changing the inflationary psychology of the economy and we do not want to see that". I'm so glad they are being vigilant, but these fools are always looking back over their shoulders - watching that inflation doesn't spring to life. Folks, you will probably start to see some of my contrary nature pop up. At some point the scales will tip and buying power financed by cheap money to buy real estate will dry up. The BULL will be ready to make a momentous run - how can the market go up with limited available liquidity - just wait and watch.

Average hourly wages rose 3 cents to $16.18, and were up 2.6% from a year earlier, in line with the trend all year and well behind the rate of inflation. Inflation was 3.6% in the 12 months through August, but data is expected to show it topped 4% in September. Inflation will remain tame as long as there is no wage-price spiral. If you already own stocks you will most likely see multiple dividend increases - which adds to my liquidity.

By the way, DowTheory has not confirmed this current downside move- the DJU index just recently was at a new all time high - usually the DJIA has not yet seen its peak until 4 to 6 months later, and the DTA is not confirming its most recent lows. There was plenty of capitulation selling in the commodities again like last time and that turned out to be a wonderful head fake. Eventually one of these hard and fast declines will set up as a bull trap - but not this time in my opinion. The hedge boys will reenter and start buying the large cap names for a play on slower growth which is a normal move at this point in the cycle. Industry will pick up the lead going forward - this expansion is no where even close to being done.
 
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My thinking is I'm still bullish on the future inspite of all the bad news.

Are the 14 week stochastic measures of the averages and the NYSE ten week advance-decline ratio as oversold as they were at the market's last strong intermediate term trend bottom in April? If they are this more significant oversold condition among these indicators should provide a better springboard far a fourth quarter advance.

The CBOE put-call ratio of the 25 day average of this series remains at a very positive reading of 95%, a level which has been associated with market bottoms in recent history. The VIX and Investors Intelligence sentiment surveys should now be more favorable to support a strong intermediate term bottom similar to April.

I plan to post the results of my most recent bout of body blows on Monday. Be warned that I am black and blue, but stll contrary bullish for the future. Again, during trying times like last week it is the dollar cost averaging of dividends that provide the silver thread.
 
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Now that I'm dwelling back in the house of pain I should be content to exercise my masochistic desires. These body punches hurt - but if pain is my gain then I'm on top of my game - sure! The oceanic came in at $900K with a weekly loss of $41K - I did beat that number back in the second week of May with a loss of $46K. But ended up making a nice gain of $22K for the entire month. I expect a similar set of circumstances to prevail this time around too. I'm still up $.32 in the tugboat account so my neck is still out of water - I don't fear drowning because I'm NAUI certified.

Honestly, I'm waiting for the Fed to wake up to reality. They are in the process of trying to destroy this fragile economy - saying that the storms are only temporary forces to slow the economy. I suspose Delphi and possibly General Motors are only temporary situations also. Lads, these are sea change events designed to send you a strong signal - you have already gone to far in tightening. Inflation is not the problem here - it's possible recession. Remember back when the Fed funds rate was down to 1% and industry wasn't moving - they have learned not to trust the Fed. They can not be counted upon to be responsible or reliable - makes it very hard to do any kind of planning knowing these peterheads are out there waiting to ruin all best made plans. Is it necessary to kill the housing industry?
 
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I've been saying for awhile now that inflation is unlikely to seep into the overall economy and become a major worry. Economists point out that competitive pressurs in the consumer sector (which accounts for the bulk of economic activity) appear to be too intense to allow companies to pass along commodity related cost increases.

Today I learned the core CPI edged up just 0.1 percent, the same rise seen each of the four previous months. Forecasts had been for a 0.2 percent rise in the core inflation rate. Overall CPI is likely to retreat in October since gasoline is backing off from September highs. Social security benefit based on CPI will rise 4.1% in 21006, the biggest increase since 1991. Over the last months, the overall CPI is up 4.7 percent, the biggest 12-month change since June 1991. A 34.8 percent rise in energy prices over the last year is responsible for the big jump. The 12 month rise in prices was substantially larger than 3.3 percent rise in average weekly earnings, or the 2.7 percent gain the average hourly pay over the same period.

Read my lips- the core CPI is up a modest 2 percent over the last 12 months, lower than the rise recorded the previous two months. And by golly, the deficits are improving because the economy is better - we can perhaps grow our way to a balanced budget. Maybe this is the holy grail the market will focus towards.
 
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Yeah, but let's talk about some inflation numbers that matter. The price of a 48oz block of locally produced extra-firm tofu is up about $0.25 on the year! The tofu consumers have carried this economy long enough! We're all tapped out! :)
 
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I agree with much of what you mention. Perhaps the airline industry is a good indicator how increased fuel costs haven't really been passed on to the consumer: if one airline tries to raise its ticket prices it is pressured by its competitors to rescind those increases as it may lose market share.

Also, we may look for a nice jump in I bond rates in a couple of weeks. Word is a 6.5% to 6.8% interest rate for the next six months will be paid for that risk free investment.
 
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Airfare has increased through Jan on South West that is scary no cheap Tickets available.

I think Apple will do great at christmas timeand that about it.

My FPL bill has increased about $75/month with no decrease in sight.

I filled up this am at Hess medium price $3.09/Gallon

If the market is dependant on the middle class to drive the economy we are all in for a shock.

The middle class is taped out Home equity is no more they cannot borrow there is nothing left.

TSP borrowers are on the rise.

Credit Card delequiencies are above record levels.

The Saturday talking heads say that the working class do not drive the market. I hope they are right
 
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Honestly, the more negativism that impacts the economy the happier the folks at the Fed are - this is just the type of bad news they want to hear - the more dire the better. And from my perspective as a born again contrarian bordering sometimes on the renegade level I'm happy too. So give me the gloom and doom scenarios and I will buy all day long. Call me stupid if you want, but past history has proven to be very beneficial when everyone is heading the other way. You learn the ropes as you move forward and take your chances. Bottoms are never pleasant - but everything is on sale - certainly not inflationary. And don't forget we still have 5 Hindenburg Omens out there for September'05. That would or should scare the bull tinky out of most inexperienced investors. And one more Halloween fact - as of Friday 10/7 the 12 month moving average of the SPX is at 1197. A monthly close below the 12 mma would certainly raise the issue of whether the cyclical bull market is over. We are currently at 1186. Get prepared for a nice yearend rally - a good one is on the way.
 
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The Saturday talking heads say that the working class do not drive the market. I hope they are right

Am surprised you give credence to these talking heads. Millions of dollars are spent in net advertising by poor shmucks who are lead to believe folks like the pop ups, like being bombarded by spam mail etc..Any sane individual who is not a Harvard MBA will tell you this is p*ssing money away for no one likes this or will not bother doing business with such in your face advertsiment gimmicks. But the fleecing of poor net business continues to date as though the jury is still out on this obnoxious marketing taught in business schools. Most of the times,your so called smart money is dumbest of dumb money. Do you know which professional class is ripped off the most by Wall Street brokers? It is the stupid dentists!. They know how to make money but lose it all to the broker in the hope of fat investment returns. No my friend, the best TV is CNBC with mute button turned on.
 
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Birchtree wrote:

Is it necessary to kill the housing industry?


I don't think the Fed intends to kill the housing industry. I just think they've become too dependent on foreign capital inflows which have been subsiding of late. They will have to raise rates to keep that capital interested. If those inflows of capital dry up, or worse yet, they begin dumping their dollar holdings in earnest,the dollar is toast. If theFed has to choose betweensaving the dollar or saving the realestate bubble,I believe they will attempt saving the dollar. Bubbles come and go, but the dollarrepresents the stock of USA, Inc. I'm not saying they will be successful in salvaging the dollar, but I am saying that will be their primary focus if push comes to shove.

The Fed doesn't fear inflation like many believe, they only fear its effects. The Fed'sjobIS to inflate the currency. That is how wars and other social programs are fundedfor which there isn't enough tax dollars to cover. Taxation isextracted byovert and forcefulmeansto partiallypay for various socialprograms while inflation iscovert and fraudulent in its nature. When people see the cost of fuel, food, and housing skyrocket they don't see the 'hidden tax' of inflated and constantly devaluing currencyas the cause...they just assume some greedy businessman is gouging them.

Through the money creation mechanism of the Fed, boom and busts are a natural occurrence just like night follows day.History has shown that real estate has not beenan exception to this phenomenon. If I lived in one of these bubble areas I would've already sold out and started renting.If I wanted to redeploy my cashed out equity in real estate I would go looking in areas where prices have remainedmore earthbound. Capital preservation is more of a concern than capital appreciation in this current bubble mania.If aperson is not willing to sell their house as it approaches a bubble top or preferably sooner, it is NOT an investment nor an ATM machine in perpetuity, but simply an abode. An abodewhose value maysoon be less than the remaining mortgage balance. Not a good plan in my opinion.
 
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Sr.

I hope you don't mute Larry Kudlow. I mentioned the name Elaine Garrazarelli one time on this site and you would have thought I was a heretic. She made some very valid points at the time and they continue today. You just never know who is going to pop up out of the WWE to do battle. Sr, show us your stuff and get in the game.

You may find that pain has its rewards. It's basically the same in physical exercise - no pain no gain.

Dennis
 
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It's time for the oceanic update - currently at $879K for a loss of $21K on the week. Not really that terrible providing I have seen the worse that this correction can deliver. I'm down now $61K in the last two weeks - it won't be difficult to make that up if we rally strongly from here. During the previous correction in April I got clipped to the tune of $138K and actually survived to return and make it all back. The same will happen this time. The tugboat is now only up $.26 - and I fully expect more gains to come. If my oil refinery stock gets back to $60-$62 I 'm going to take the profit and reinvest in some other opportunities that pay reasonable dividends.

Currently folks I just don't have any fear or panic in me. Wonder Woman suggested a while back that I was a functional psycopathy - she may be correct. I just don't feel the need to seek shelter with the choir folks. Alas, I also see fewer participants seeking shelter this time either - what does that mean? I don't know if we will get a V or W move off this current bottom - it hardly matters at this point - I'm happy just reinvesting my dividends and dollar cost averaging my C fund. I won't shout from the mountain top - but I will subtedly wisper there is a big move on the way. Now The Technician will most certainly disagree, but I have a lot of Bull Tinkey for him. I do appreciate his efforts to provide warnings - and it's not his fault if some of us fools prefer not to listen.
 
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From my friends at Merrill Lynch:

" Anything but America. That's the message from our latest fund managers survey. Of the 176 asset allocators we polled, a net 52% are underweight the U.S. in a global portfolio. That is the biggest net underweight since March 1999. Of the asset allocators that are underweight, one-third say that they have an aggressive underweight stance. America is seen as having the least-favorable outlook for corporate profits of any major region and the most overvalued stock market. The upward revisions to Fed funds forecasts continue to cast a pall over stocks.

America's loss is Japan's gain. Asset allocators affair with Japanese equities continues. A net 54% of them are overweight the Japanese stock market, a record level of enthusiasm matched only in the spring of 2004 and the winter of 1999. Investors think that Japan has the best outlook for corporate profits, the least-expensive equity market, and the most undevalued currency. They also think the region has had the greatest improvement in quality of earnings this year. A point of note: the majority of Japanese equity specialist believe that Japanese monetary policy is stimulative."

Here comes the C fund kicker.

"According to our survey, investors preference for Japanese equities over U.S. equities has never been this great. In the past, some of the difference was attributable to perceptions of global inflation (Japan is one of the few economies that welcomes, and benefits from, a rise in inflation expectations). However, that does not explain the recent shift in sentiment; indeed, a smaller proportion of fund managers now think that inflation will rise than was the case in August. Regular readers know that the survey can act as a contrarian indicator, in particular where an asset class starts to run out of marginal buyers and marginal sellers. Although we do not advise investing simply on the basis of our survey, history suggests that Japanese equities may struggle to outperform U.S. equities during the next several months given the extent to which investors are already positioned in the pro Japan trade."
 
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Time for an oceanic update again, presently resting at $863K which is a loss of $16K on the week. I'm down a total of $77K for the last three weeks. But today may be the start of the next rally which puts me back on the come back trail again. We'll see how long it takes to surpass my previous high of $954K back on 8/3/05. I really need to start adding new positions to the portfolio in preparation for 2006. On 10/04/05 I was at $941K - getting back to that level hopefully will not be too difficult if we have a strong move off this bottom. Dividend reinvestment has been the saving grace so far this year - plus the movement of time puts me into long term capital gain profits when I decide to start taking them. I would dearly like a $40K week this week. Time will tell - but I'm terribly bullish off this bottom just waiting and taking my lumps before opportunity knocks. Take care.
 
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