Birchtree's Account Talk

[jpcavin]

Whew! That was one hell of a long read. But very interesting.

 

[Birchtree]

I was just in checking my flower buying power for Tuesday and I'm good to go. What I liked about the article was the EWT history of previous wave 3 accelerations. It's worth reading twice. I believe we are in the early stages of Primary 3 as it relates to the NYSE group of stocks. Within Elliott, the third of the third is known as the Point of Recognition, the epicenter of an enormous advance. U.S. equities are now fairly well confirmed to be in a major Wave 3 advance. Keep in mind that the center point of 3 will have the most amount of participation by both breadth and volume related charts. We are in an ultra bullish 3 of 3 of 3 mode. At the 2008 worst case scenario lows the market tried to bury me but I wasn't afraid of taphophobia and now I'm being rewarded. What is hard to do is often the right thing to do so I'm a strong buyer and that will continue.

 

[hotwings]

I have 20% sitting in the TSP G fund just itching to get in..... I only have one IFT left in the chamber for this month...... I keep waiting for that 2-3% pullback but the market keeps rising. Go figure...

 

[Birchtree]

It's never easy leaving money on the table especially in a bull market. We will eventually consolidate but perhaps from even higher levels and then the drop may not be very deep. The moms and pops of the world are starting to shift money to domestic stock funds and so far year to date at a record $12.42 billion - it's hard to fight that inflow going forward.

 

[Birchtree]

"Historically the market has had some very nasty pullbacks when the oscillators have gotten this high for an extended period."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article26413.html

 

[hotwings]

That was a good article..thanks

 

[jpcavin]

 

[Birchtree]

When you're up 100% and you've got this irrational exuberance, the only thing we have to fear is the lack of fear; that's when you've got to be afraid, as with tech or housing or Japanese stock before. It was the fastest climb of 100% since 1936, when the index took 501 days to rocket up to 16.15 from 8.06 according to Birinyi Associates. This time, it took 707 days and it ain't over yet. Large companies have rebounded faster than smaller firms from the recent recession, in part because they are more likely to sell globally and take advantage of economic growth in emerging markets - one of the reasons I like the I fund. My desire is that Tuesday is a nice up day that further contributes to my flower power buying - then get ready for three hammer down days to shake a few weak hands, I've got a truck load of dividends due in March so I can sit out the consequent damage and simply reinvest at lower prices. Now will we finally get some weakness - who knows. It won't be much if it's 1995 again.

 

[Birchtree]

"...underneath stocks are exploding, and everything I'm seeing to day looks bullish."

http://theguruinvestor.com/2011/02/18/cohen-talks-market-strategy-in-rare-interview/

"Historically, the best time to buy common stocks is when unemployment rate is high and falling."

http://theguruinvestor.com/2011/02/18/do;;-says-signs-point-toward-buying-opportunity/

 

[amoeba]

well I'm not sure I believe there is any nasty pullback coming, and, judging from your lack of IFT movement, neither do you. If you did - you wouldn't be leaving money in the market waiting for a drop to take you out.

 

[vegasmith]

"...underneath stocks are exploding, and everything I'm seeing to day looks bullish."

http://theguruinvestor.com/2011/02/18/cohen-talks-market-strategy-in-rare-interview/

"Historically, the best time to buy common stocks is when unemployment rate is high and falling."

http://theguruinvestor.com/2011/02/18/do;;-says-signs-point-toward-buying-opportunity/

Interesting reads.

 

[hotwings]

A good read from by Steven Vincent, BullBear Trading

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/VINCENT.html

 

[Birchtree]

Sometimes I buy'em on the highs and sometimes I buy'em on the lows - just as long as I keep buying: PXP, AGO, BLT, DLX, EXP, KEG, IT. CR. And a few flower power dollars left for tomorrow. This is a needed consolidation to unwind us a little - but not a sign to cut and run. Holding 40C and 60I long and strong.

 

[hotwings]

I hear ya Birch.... I'm looking to "finally" put my 20% G to work this week....I think this week will be a good time to take advantage of the pull pack and rid ourselves of the weak hands before our march upwards. This Bull seems to be too long and strong right now..

 

[Birchtree]

We could see a better than a 3.0% give back in the S fund today - that'll cool a few jets.

 

[anthony]

We could see a better than a 3.0% give back in the S fund today - that'll cool a few jets.

Burn baby burn! I smell limit orders getting cleared out.

 

[Mcqlives]

We could see a better than a 3.0% give back in the S fund today - that'll cool a few jets.

Problem is with this amount of turmoil, and the VIX jump, a lot of money will be out by end of trading to see what happens overnight. If tomorrow AM is bad then will the smart (and dumb) money jump back in tomorrow or wait till the next day?

 

[JamesE]

We could see a better than a 3.0% give back in the S fund today - that'll cool a few jets.

Not gonna happen big guy, your I fund is getting burnt more than S at the moment. We'll have to wait for the FV to see tho.

 

[Mcqlives]

Not gonna happen big guy, your I fund is getting burnt more than S at the moment. We'll have to wait for the FV to see tho.

And the final hour will tell...3% is a possibility, just look at the charts falling over the past 10 minutes.

 

[ArchAngel]

So is this the beginning of the imminent and overdue pullback everyone's been talking about - or just a bad day?