Birchtree's Account Talk

what u think BT? sounds good to me

Uncommon wisdom - Larry Edelson
"Keep in mind, these figures are applicable only for the last day of trading in 2010, which is December 31. But they must be gauged now, and followed into the end of the year. So let's get started ...


For the S&P 500, as we head into year-end, watch ...

S&P 500 Above 1277.50

— Very possible: If the S&P 500 manages to rally into year-end and close 2010 above 1277.50, it will 100% confirm that the March 2009 low in the S&P 500 was a major low — and that the S&P 500 would then be in a new long-term bull market, headed to a new record high by late 2015, early 2016. Naturally, there might still be a pullback in early 2011 if this signal were to be hit at year-end, but it would be a very BULLISH indication for the market.

S&P 500 Between 925.80 – 1277.50

— Probable: Technically, if the S&P 500 closes the year between these two figures, which I deem probable, this would set up a "neutral" momentum and trend indication for the index for 2011.

It would mean that the S&P 500 will experience extreme swings next year, occurring between 804.60 on the low side, worst case, to 1457.00 on the high side. In other words, a near 600-point trading range!

Stock Market Closing Price 12/31/10
$INDU Dow Industrial Close - 11577.51 Up 7.80
$COMPQ Nasdaq Composite Close -2652.87 Down 10.11
$SPX S&P 500 Close 1257.69 Down 0.19

 
My oceanic account this past week finally showed some momentum with my gain from week #97 off the March lows at $1658K. Here is what the week looked like: +8K, +33K, +33K, -12K, +12K for a gain of $74K. This is much better than treading water like the last two weeks. Still looking forward to making the $2M mark real soon. I've managed to do some considerable buying this week and that should continue - recognizing of course the headless horseman is about with sentiment and I may lose mine but that is the risk I'm willing to take. My coal stocks put a dent in my return this week but then cheaper pricing is always a small blessing to a stock accumulator - I'll be buying more coal and adding to my banks next week. Stay tuned.
 
BT your self professed greed is good enough for me and I believe you!

I am comforted to know when we get a break in the buying and the market heads south that BT will be greedily hanging on and taking his lumps.

Couldn't imagine it any other way :D
 
Birch,
I'm kind of numb. Over the weekend Mom was put on hospice and is expected to die within 3 weeks. Apparently her organs are simply shutting down - and Dad's been having a tough time. My brother - and his family - about an hour from him have been very helpful.

I'll probably take off next week and spend the whole time with Mom and Dad.

The job in PA closes on 2/1 and that is a very major change - a seperation from my wife and likely a new beginning of amazing hope and promise. Money wise things will be incredibly tight - as the apple of my eye is just starting college. Plus I'm striving to leave everything the same for all concerned .... so it will be tough .... but all I need is the basics.

Anyway - think about me once in awhile ... cause everything is happening at the same time -- the worst (and what I believe will be the best).

Steady
 
Steady, sorry to hear about your Mom. My best wishes to your family and to you, be strong.
 
Steady,

You are on a great adventure and now is the time to look forward without forgetting the valuable lessons of the past. Take care of the family with my best wishes and karma will find you. We all face these difficulties at some point and then life resumes - hurry back.
 
Steady,

You are on a great adventure and now is the time to look forward without forgetting the valuable lessons of the past. Take care of the family with my best wishes and karma will find you. We all face these difficulties at some point and then life resumes - hurry back.

She has found me Birch - and apparently it could not happen until I had been through 'the lessons' and learned them well. Thank you soo very much for knowing this and understanding the way you do.

My family has always come first -- always -- and always will.

Thanks to the rest here as well (spoken or unspoken) -- much appreciated.

Will plan to take off next week -- unless something happens.

I love you all.
 
Steady, I'm glad you will be able to be with her and them, for the time she has left. Huge changes ahead. will be thinking of you, prayers go with.
 
steady
my best to you and your family. i just lost my pops Dec. 2009. It is not easy, but once I realized that death is a part of life and we will all get there eventually. that made it easier for me to accept the fact that I'm losing someone very dear to me,but its how you lose that person is what counts. Remember to HONOR their wishes regardless of what YOU might think is best for them. My Pops needed physical therapy upon release from the hospital with terminal cancer. But he told mew "son i want to go home". he did and passed 3 days later at the house with his dignity and wishes silently in the morning. I miss and love him.

again best to you and the family.
john
 
Steady, sorry to hear the news. Stay strong within yourself. May the Force be with you. You will be in out thoughts and prayers.
 
I'm not collecting much buying power today - need to see a small rally in the small cap arena during the last hour. Otherwise I'll have to wait until tomorrow. I'm ready to put more money into coal.
 
Like it or not, the trend is still up until proven otherwise, here is the current writing on the wall...

Dow Transports: New 52 week high today.
NASDAQ: New 52 week high today.
S&P 500: New 52 week high today.
Wilshire 4500: New 52 week high today.
EAFE: New 52 week high today.
 
I'm starting to wonder about the possibility of a blow off top in the near future, especially with the blow out earnings and revenue from Apple. They could be the eventual catalyst to ignite this rally and push the VIX down below its' Bollinger band level at 14.66. I f we get some wild volume and huge moves the time could be short for a nice consolidation which would of course be healthy. But who in their right mind likes to eat those things besides me. Keep your eyes on the CBOE put/call ratio also with a current reading of 0.37 it is primed to take the market lower just like in April 2010 for a 15% ride to the cellar - maybe. A break below 15 will put the VIX back at a level not seen since July 2007. Man I think I'll keep my sticky pants on for a few more days and then pullback a little. There are many 100% S funders up ahead that are going to simply drip red when this thing cracks.
 
Buying some coal today: ANR, ACI, CNX, PCX, JRCC. Small caps are feeling some heat so there may be some fine opportunities to add to my base today - I'll keep looking.
 
Back
Top