Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

"You will not be able to trade in and out successfully during wave 3."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/19570/keeping-you-on-the-right-side-of-the-market

 

[FAB1]

The day to buy in was today.

Somebodys gonna pick up these bargins on Monday.

 

[WorkFE]

I decided to cancel my IFT for today until sometime next week. I thought the NFP number would be much larger than 107,000.

I meant to ask you if you were going to cancel it. I have 30% in the G, today would have been a nice day to deploy.

 

[Birchtree]

We may come back strong next week. Then I'll consider a pullback. I hope we slam down 100 Dow points today - I need some pain as a reminder of my vulnerability.

 

[tsptalk]

The 50-day EMA would be nice. Can we get that lucky?

 

[Birchtree]

SPX 1226 is a long way down but I think liquidity will prevent that from happening. This sideways activity will go a long way to unwind some of the oscillators which would be positive for further gains. Hedgies will probably come in and buy before the close. I'd just like us to hold SPX 1270 on the close.

 

[Birchtree]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/40971762

The NYSE common stock only advance-decline line is approaching its' July '07 highs and 80% of stocks are above their 50-day moving averages but still have not reached prior highs from last year. It's all good.

"The important thing to note is that the CSO A/D line for breadth is confirming the price highs of the current bull market, and it is unlikely that the broad market will run into serious problems under those conditions."

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/carl-swenlin/nyse-common-stock-only-indicators

Did I mention that Goldman sees the S&P 500 at 1500 in 2011. This is a gain of 19%.

 

[Birchtree]

Well this week was a week that wasn't just like last week. I suspose sideways action is beneficial in unwinding oscillators. Having $3.5M working for me could only produce a gain of $9K - just pittiful. However I still have high hopes that I'll crsck the $2M off the March'09 low real soon. Only $416K to go. By the way that $3.5M is in my oceanic account not my TSP tugboat.

 

[Birchtree]

"If we get the same kind of effect frpm QE2 that we got from QE1, then the Dow should add another 50% before the summer and that would put us at Dow 15,000."

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/barry-ferguson/dow-15000-by-year-ben

 

[Birchtree]

Everyone has problems and here is one I'm dealing with. I own 2568 shares of a certain stock with a cost of $26K and a current cost basis of $10.12. The current market price is $29.86 which at $76K gives me a long term capital gain of $50K. Such a problem to have right. The problem is that $76K is only producing $744 worth of dividends at a yield % of 0.93. This company did a split back in 2006 at $54 and usually increases its' dividend yearly. I could possibly hold on and collect another 20 points for an eventual profit of $100k because we are in a bull market. Or should I just ignore this problem and begin more dollar cost averaging up to $50. I guess I'll take the risk and forget about the meek dividend return and go for the next $50K and a potential stock split - then return to the dividend weakness and put some money in another stock with a higher yield. Does that sound practical? This is a real situation. I have other similar problems but no sense becoming a burden.

 

[JTH]

Everyone has problems and here is one I'm dealing with. I own 2568 shares of a certain stock with a cost of $26K and a current cost basis of $10.12. The current market price is $29.86 which at $76K gives me a long term capital gain of $50K. Such a problem to have right. The problem is that $76K is only producing $744 worth of dividends at a yield % of 0.93. This company did a split back in 2006 at $54 and usually increases its' dividend yearly. I could possibly hold on and collect another 20 points for an eventual profit of $100k because we are in a bull market. Or should I just ignore this problem and begin more dollar cost averaging up to $50. I guess I'll take the risk and forget about the meek dividend return and go for the next $50K and a potential stock split - then return to the dividend weakness and put some money in another stock with a higher yield. Does that sound practical? This is a real situation. I have other similar problems but no sense becoming a burden.

With problems like yours who needs friends like me? You already know what you're going to do, I'll just kindly add that it always feels easier to sell the winners, but that doesn't mean it's the right thing to do. IMHO, I'd just let that horse ride as is, and find a better DCA opportunity, with a better paying dividend.

 

[WorkFE]

Did you buy it for the split potential?
Did you buy it for historical dividends?
Did you buy it for stock increase?

You know the answer and how to play it.

Nice problem to have.

 

[Birchtree]

JTH,

Thanx for your response. I do have access to margin so a sacrifice is tolerable. I'll hold for more gains. I'm trying to imagine what a Dow of 15,000 would do to my pshche. I see the small caps just went positive. I know you are in difficult transition from fur to hide - I'll rejoice when you make your declaration and show us graphically the way into the wilderness. A Dow of 14,154 seems just around the corner and after that there may be no top for several years.

 

[Birchtree]

WorkFE,

I originally bought into the stock for the sector it was in. I think potentially as an industrial sector play they may be susceptible as a buy out target especially with all the balance sheet liquidity around for M and A.

 

[JTH]

I wish I could share your optimistic view. If I were to guess (and it would be a guess) these markets will turn down sometime during the next few weeks, but I'm waiting for the markets reaction to ALCOA, as earnings reactions will clue me in as to what this market really wants to do. If we sell off on good news, I may pull the ripcord...

 

[WorkFE]

I did not feel like digging into your past post. I know you target some that are ripe for splitting which in the end equals more dividends, if they pay of course.
I am more the dump on increase type, dam the taxes. Like I did with Ford.

 

[crws]

Everyone has problems and here is one I'm dealing with. I own 2568 shares of a certain stock with a cost of $26K and a current cost basis of $10.12. The current market price is $29.86 which at $76K gives me a long term capital gain of $50K. Such a problem to have right. The problem is that $76K is only producing $744 worth of dividends at a yield % of 0.93. This company did a split back in 2006 at $54 and usually increases its' dividend yearly. I could possibly hold on and collect another 20 points for an eventual profit of $100k because we are in a bull market. Or should I just ignore this problem and begin more dollar cost averaging up to $50. I guess I'll take the risk and forget about the meek dividend return and go for the next $50K and a potential stock split - then return to the dividend weakness and put some money in another stock with a higher yield. Does that sound practical? This is a real situation. I have other similar problems but no sense becoming a burden.

I got some big shoulders brother Birch...sniff... I feel your pain.
But don't worry, you're in good company, and...thanks for sharing...:worried:
If the market tanks, you might net out at zero- would that ease your burden? :laugh:
You could pay cash for some investment properties, become a landlord, and get out of the house more....

 

[Birchtree]

Not only is coal keeping the country warm it is heating up my portfolio today - I think it's all thanks to Australia.

 

[anthony]

I did not feel like digging into your past post. I know you target some that are ripe for splitting which in the end equals more dividends, if they pay of course.
I am more the dump on increase type, dam the taxes. Like I did with Ford.

But how do you know where the increase will end? I'm still holding F and probably will for at least the next 3-5 years.

For myself, I can honestly say I regret selling nearly every stock I ever sold. With a few exceptions that needed to be sold because of crappy valuations, leadership, financials, etc., most of the ones I sold ended up just as good or better than new ones I bought.

It just seems less work intensive to hold onto them and learn them inside and out by a long relationship than it is to do all the research required to find some new company to buy.

 

[Birchtree]

Now your're thinking like a Major.