Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

http://theguruinvestor.com/2010/12/31/top-forecaster-real-gdp-back-to-pre-recession-levels/

 

[Boghie]

I was surprised, after all the hoopla about high corporate income taxes in the US, to hear an expert yesterday present "effective" rates and show the US in the middle of several nations'. I would have thought there was a greater disparity between them and then ours being huge by comparison, at least that is what Sean the mouth says. Re Obama, you do seem to see him as more pragmatic than many do. Maybe you need more Glenn camp?

WarrenLM,

Conservatives (like me) always game stats by not using 'effective' rates. We do the same regarding individual income tax. How many times have you heard Sean The Mouth yakking up about the highest bracket. By the time someone hits it they have tons of write-offs and are probably in the AMT anyway.

However, the 'effective' rates are only effective if you game the system. Thus, the very nature of high corporate tax rates imply that these entities are gaming the system. That is not a very efficient use of capital. Entities only game the system when it is worth the effort to game the system. Why are we pushing companies to make stupid decisions?

Bring the rates down and simplify the system.

Its been done in the past and it worked.

 

[Birchtree]

That S fund can be mean enough to make a grown man whimper. It hurts so good.

 

[Birchtree]

http://financialsense.com/contributors/carl-swenlin/the-long-view

 

[Birchtree]

"There is roughly $500 billion in new Fed sponsored money creation over the next six months."

http://financialsense.com/contributiond/brian-pretti/2011-the-long-and-short-of-it

 

[Birchtree]

Well my oceanic suffered a token loss on the week of $6K leaving me up $1575 off the March '09 low. So the plan is to pull down $425K for the month of January or as close as possible. That will get me to the $2M mark by week #99 of the 3/9/09 low. Then I'm straight out for the $3M by week #140. This is going to be an exciting bull market to ride. Remember the best investment returns are made by anticipating major economic change before it happens. I'm investing on the edge of delirium with no fear of taphophobia and plan to make several million dollars in 2011. Chance favors the prepared mind. Snort.

 

[cawwilson]

Your I-Fund allocation is going to give you a happy ending to the year

You said happy ending

I still think the S Fund will outperform the I Fund in 2011.. but just barely

 

[Birchtree]

You may be correct but for many reasons I'm going to lean in a different direction.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm optimistic for the next several years along with Norman Fosback. He thinks that stocks will gain about 22% in the next 12 months, and he thinks they'll average 11% annualized over the next five years. That's well and good for my tugboat (TSP) but individual stocks will outperform those percentages. There will be many mergers and acquisitions as well as stock splits and dividend increases to fatten the Birchtree 300 account. I believe the 2009 lows actually marked the start of a new longer term cyclical bull inside the continuation of the mega trend secular bull from 1982. When the money begins to return to equities there will be plenty of liquidity to boost the market past the October 2007 peaks. And don't forget that the 4-year and 6-year cycles are in the ascending phase for all of 2011. Yes, my investing strategy includes the goal of putting the pedal to the metal and making several million dollars - why do I think that you ask. Because I have the stock resource base to power my way through almost any obstacle. It's my reward for buying the 2008 bottom and riding the last 83% gains. My further reward will be participating in the potential of the next 100% gains. It all boils down to courage and a healthy chunk of greed.

 

[Birchtree]

I ended up #73 on the tracker at 17.24% - another week and I could've been a contender. The next six months will be very interesting as last year's leaders begin to fall behind. My oceanic is full of small caps but my tugboat is all large caps and that will make the difference on the tracker. My lonely follower will score this year big time.

 

[eccougar]

I ended up #73 on the tracker at 17.24% - another week and I could've been a contender. The next six months will be very interesting as last year's leaders begin to fall behind. My oceanic is full of small caps but my tugboat is all large caps and that will make the difference on the tracker. My lonely follower will score this year big time.

Not a bad year at all, Birchtree. Best wishes for 2001.

 

[JTH]

I ended up #73 on the tracker at 17.24% - another week and I could've been a contender. The next six months will be very interesting as last year's leaders begin to fall behind. My oceanic is full of small caps but my tugboat is all large caps and that will make the difference on the tracker. My lonely follower will score this year big time.

Actually you're much higher than that, I don't count those who came late to the party. YTD I'm around 76ish

 

[Birchtree]

Are you prepared for a continuation of the Santa Rally and a rockus parabolic acceleration next week that might give us a spectacular vertical blow off top? Then followed by only a 3% consolidation. All those newly created lily padders will gaze in wonderment as they sold too soon and missed the biggest week of the entire upcoming year.

"From a bullish perspective, we could see strength in energy and materials, coupled with strength in the dollar, if U.S. growth, housing, and/or employment surprises on the upside."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/19496/2011-housing-jobs-stocks-commodities-and-dollar

 

[Birchtree]

Apparently I ended up #59 on the tracker at 17.24%. Many members will be buying the S fund on the high today - be prepared for a whipsaw later in the week. I'm just going to ride such a fine day and do some work on my next buy list - I'll have plenty of buying power for the rest of the week if the market holds its' gains from today.

 

[Birchtree]

I talked with a realtor yesterday from western N.C. regarding a lake house I'm interested in. The owner has reduced the asking price another $96K to $759K. My original number was $672 so if I split the difference I would pay $712K. I will look at some existing inventory to see what is available. But all prices are coming down and hardly anyone working in the real estate industry is eating. It's a great time to be a vulture.

 

[FAB1]

Apparently I ended up #59 on the tracker at 17.24%.

Im sorry you couldnt reach that #38 goal.
Heres hoping we all do better in 2011

 

[FAB1]

I talked with a realtor yesterday from western N.C. regarding a lake house I'm interested in. It's a great time to be a vulture.

Yeah, but when do the flippin home prices Stop Dropping?

Find that point and then buy.

 

[Birchtree]

If I can nail down $425K by the end of January in my oceanic I'll be happy - I'm shooting for that #38 again in 2011 on the tracker. The Case/Shiller index indicates we may be in a double dip for residential real estate. So many people are under water on their mortgages and will remain there for several more years. I have the dividend stream to buy without selling assets. "To the extent that a portfolio can generate sufficient cash income for an investor to avoid the need to sell assets to support lifestyle, the safer the long term financial future for that investor, with a lower risk of out living assets." My stock prices will always fluctuate but the income will remain fairly stable. Of course there will be times when it will be prudent to realize some capital gains but most of that profit will be reinvested.

 

[fedgolfer]

The rare case of flat tops produce market pops. Or, daily sticks trumped by the weekly, again. Jan will be more volatile than Dec though.

 

[FAB1]

The rare case of flat tops produce market pops. Or, daily sticks trumped by the weekly, again. Jan will be more volatile than Dec though.

Why is it "rare"?

Because flat tops usually GOES DOWN :nuts: