Birchtree's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Hey Birch -- just a random thought to end the day with.

Did you ever wonder if the 'Rocket Fumes' might be too strong ...

...make the BULL ... pass out ... before he gets the strengh he needs ??

 

[WorkFE]

BT,
Penny for your thoughts on that 20%

 

[Birchtree]

I'm waiting for Godot with my 20%. I'm inclined to hang onto it a few more days and pay the price as we rally. The G20 may send a negative catalyst and then it'll be time to spend.

 

[Birchtree]

"Stock market at critical juncture."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24111.html

 

[WorkFE]

Either your telling me you won't recognise the moment in which you will plunge your 20% or you're toying with me.

 

[Birchtree]

I wanted to hold out for a $17.75 price on the S fund - but that may not happen because of QE2 - but $18.75 may come into play. We will undoubtedly have a consolidation and all I can do is wait patiently. Hell it might all happen in several days and then the pain turns into joy - or we just continue to rally and I'll throw in the towel of capitulation and take what the market feels I deserve. I'm waiting on the hammer.

 

[Birchtree]

A few good graphs and comments on the dollar.

http://wwwmarketoracle.co.uk/Article24120.html

"The stock markets LEAD the economy, as asset prices inflate then so does the economy follow. The best investment returns are made by anticipating major economic change before it happens. Bottom line, a year from now people will be wishing they had bought stocks when they were cheap just as they missed buying stocks in March 2009. Imminent correction to target Dow 10,700 by mid Nov. 2010."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24102.html

 

[Steadygain]

I wanted to hold out for a $17.75 price on the S fund.

You're the man - Birch

You are The MAN

 

[Birchtree]

I confess that I'm beginning to feel the anxiety of panic in missing some of this melt up. There is just too much liquidity available and the hedge funds are buying. The SPX is headed to the fibonacci 61.8% level of 1230 and when that happens I expect a massive move in stocks and the melt up will continue as seasonality is positive. Apparently the four year cycle did nest in July and now we have the 2-year, 4-year, and 6-year upward cycle pressure working in concert so it's time to throw my 20%G under the bus. If the S fund tanks later it probably will be harmless in depth because the money flows are at all time new highs along with breadth in some of the indexes. At COB I'll be 50C, 20S, 30I. I feel more comfortable all in anyway. Snort.

 

[Holden_Caufield]

go birch, go!

 

[nnuut]

Welcome to the MB HC, how's that Rye Grass?

 

[JTH]

I confess that I'm beginning to feel the anxiety of panic in missing some of this melt up. There is just too much liquidity available and the hedge funds are buying. The SPX is headed to the fibonacci 61.8% level of 1230 and when that happens I expect a massive move in stocks and the melt up will continue as seasonality is positive. Apparently the four year cycle did nest in July and now we have the 2-year, 4-year, and 6-year upward cycle pressure working in concert so it's time to throw my 20%G under the bus. If the S fund tanks later it probably will be harmless in depth because the money flows are at all time new highs along with breadth in some of the indexes. At COB I'll be 50C, 20S, 30I. I feel more comfortable all in anyway. Snort.

Just curious, do new tax rules take effect next year, if so how do you expect investers to prep finishing out this year? Also, are we going to get the seasonal small caps selloff?

 

[Scout333]

Just curious, do new tax rules take effect next year, if so how do you expect investers to prep finishing out this year? Also, are we going to get the seasonal small caps selloff?

My personal WAG is that current tax rates will be extended on a short-term basis - to be revisited next year. When the economy improves interest rates will be raised and taxes will be increased to pay off the enormous debt we have accumulated in the last two years. Count on it!

 

[Birchtree]

Scout33 has it right - I've decided not to fight the Fed after today so bring the market on down. There will not be a need for tax loss selling this year. There are very few losses to sell.

 

[Birchtree]

Gee, I just realized that CVX (Chevron) is buying out my ATLS (Atlas Energy) for $43. The stock is up $10.68 today. This is a natural gas play on the Marcellus Shale properties. Sure would like to see a bidding war on this one. All my natural gas stocks seem to be popping. When it's good it's good. My AME is going to do a 3/2 stock split. And dividends are finally being increased - sure glad I'm not stuck in a drowning house situation.

 

[SWAVET]

Today is a good day to come in and finally you're 100% in the race. I should get some I fund, but just don't want to waste one IFT.

 

[JTH]

At COB I'll be 50C, 20S, 30I. I feel more comfortable all in anyway. Snort.

I've spend a fair part of this year stuck from the 50s to 70s on the tracker. It's tougher to break into the Top 50 as the year comes to an end, but perhaps with this latest IFT you'll break some new ground.

 

[Steadygain]

http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/09/news/international/energy_forecast_china_oil/index.htm

Birch,
I've had a longstanding 'personal disclosure' with OIL related investments.

China's energy demand is expected to increase by 75% through 2038.


Anyway, I felt like kind of a hippocrit last night -- but all I was reflecting on was how the 'dirt balls' can get away with anything. Then you've got little pieces of dust (Maddoff) in comparison -- then on a submicroscopic level you've got the rest of us.

Felt it only fair to let you know -- my investments are (and will remain) with oil - and key aspects related.

 

[Birchtree]

JTH,

More and more good folks are stepping aside to the lily pad, recently: chemmie, lacaprup,
Quickstrike, and Mack-Daddy. The lanes are opening up

 

[Boghie]

I think you timed it perfectly...

I'll probably move my (F)ools Fund to S tomorrow. 10% seemed kinda light. Kinda like the G Fund. Not enough to do anything.

Anyway, as far as the tax code...
I think the current Libs will allow the current tax code to lapse. Then the next Congress will make the Bush tax code permanent. It will affect our withholdings for a month or so. What a mess...