Birchtree's Account Talk

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The week that was. My oceanic took down $164K - not my best week ever but certainly pleasant. Some of you may know that I'm a margin player and I've been waiting for enough gains in unrealized capital gains to access some cash buying power. This is a demonstration of how that will work. Once I make another $45K anything above that will present as buying power. If I were already there the $164K I made this week would provide me with $328K buying power - and you realize it's all borrowed money that I have to pay interest on which remains tax deductable and offsets my dividend tax. I currently have a ceiling of $1.7M that I can bump up against - but this ceiling is also mobile and the bull market will keep giving me buying power until my nose bleeds. Oh, it's a dangerous game but this investor has been in preparation for years to make some serious money. And now that we have QE2 in play it's time to ride the wooly beast at full throtle with the pedal to the metal. All I need to do is get our consolidation out of the way and then move forward and upward. The next several months should be glorious and exciting. Remember in the fall of 2008 I gave up $1M in value - well now my friends it's pay back time. Snort.
 
Ahh, yes, always gotta have that pride before the fall. My questions for you, sir, are three-fold:

1) You talk a big game, but there's really zero, zip, nada proof of your claimed performance or accounts, other than an unimpressive TSP tracker performance. Show us the money!

2) With so much capital supposedly at your disposal, why bother with one-way, terribly sluggish TSP mechanics? That much capital, ripe for investment, could make a killing with the new normal volatility, in the right trader's hands.

3) Please, enlighten us, as to how the immense risk in perma-bulling, balances out against rapid value erosion brought on by a devalued US$, & soaring commodity inflation? Let me guess, your Oceanic account is safely vested in Hong Kong & Singaporean markets-currencies, in its entirety... BULL-crap.
 
A belated welcome to the MB, Prometheus! And a note of caution that you may be playing with fire here. Zeus appreciates it when we play nice. :D

Maggie
 
Prometheus,

Read before you write.:o

I don't have to answer for Birch - he is plenty loud...

1. Birch has written over 10,000 posts. In many of them he tells us what he has bought and sold. I can't remember any currency trading. You probably could get a feel for the returns if you read a bunch of posts and computed them - but I understand your point. Birch may be cherry picking his winners. But, then again, if he wasn't winning than he probably would get all depressed and would have stopped posting after a mere 5,000 entries. There are (were) lots of folks here that yelled from the moutain top when things were going good - only to fall silent in 2008 and 2009 (most permanently). Read Birch's posts during the crash. Anything but silent:p

2. Birch is retired and living fine on his TSP. My guess is that he has a very nice nest egg. He plays with other assets. He ain't going to soil the bed he sleeps in. Kinda basic Prometheus.

3. Again, I don't think Birch uses currency trading like George Soros. He does use leverage. Personally, I think he uses too much leverage - but, in the recent down market he more than survived the margin calls.

Finally, I'll watch your returns just as soon as you get on the AutoTracker.

The web is forever:)

prometheus said:
Ahh, yes, always gotta have that pride before the fall. My questions for you, sir, are three-fold:

1) You talk a big game, but there's really zero, zip, nada proof of your claimed performance or accounts, other than an unimpressive TSP tracker performance. Show us the money!

2) With so much capital supposedly at your disposal, why bother with one-way, terribly sluggish TSP mechanics? That much capital, ripe for investment, could make a killing with the new normal volatility, in the right trader's hands.

3) Please, enlighten us, as to how the immense risk in perma-bulling, balances out against rapid value erosion brought on by a devalued US$, & soaring commodity inflation? Let me guess, your Oceanic account is safely vested in Hong Kong & Singaporean markets-currencies, in its entirety... BULL-crap.
Click to expand...
 
Seriously folks, we all know Birchtree has more than enough folks here kissing his azz and now you're going to do his fighting too? How many of you have forgotten about the things he's been busted for?

Give the old gardner some credit and let him pick up his own pitchfork. Let the newbie smack him around a bit, BT can take care of himself just fine, if he so chooses.
 
prometheus said:
Ahh, yes, always gotta have that pride before the fall. My questions for you, sir, are three-fold:
1) Show us the money!
2) With so much capital supposedly at your disposal, why bother with one-way, terribly sluggish TSP mechanics?
3) Please, enlighten us, BULL-crap.
Click to expand...
***
:) Welcome prometheus,
Please try to be as humble as I try to be.
You sound a lot like I felt, once I started on these boards. I, @ 2 decades ago, was just a hot-headed little college-puke, who wanted everything for nothing and hated those who were out of my reach. No-one on these boards can show how much they have only How well they are at working the TSP System. B may or may not have what B claims, B seems to have been born with $$$, all around. If B don't then it's an aweful lot of work to impress TSPTALK. Most of his figures, glancing, are roughly close and his market knowledge or TSP System, works better than most.
http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_balance_all.php , B is #65.
He's got it, He shares it with us, Utilize his info don't anal-yze. I'm not being brash, I just accept everything at face value.
DB
 
prometheus,

This old dog likes nothing better than a drive by shooting - that's why I keep the quad-50 out back. Many have passed this way over the years and most unfortunately fade faster than they arrived. So hit me with your best shot. I will tell you that my long market value is now over $3M - you don't have to believe it because it don't mean a thing. At week #87 of the March '09 low I've made $1347K and you don't have to believe that either. I have six weeks to make $653K to achieve my original goal of $2M off the March bottom. Now I wasn't born with money. My family was poor as a church mouse and I've worked and fought my way to my current status. I started investing in 1972 with $1K and I'm sure I've lost more money than I've made learning investing via the college of hard knocks. But this year the planets are aligned to make me a very rich man. As a margin player it's easy to play with other peoples' money but where there is risk there is bountiful opportunity. There is room in the bullish investing arena for everyone to make their share. Hope you'll participate. Snort.

JTH,

I happen to own AZZ and plan to buy more real soon - it's a great stock.

Oh, I almost forgot. I invest as a family unit for diversification and my tugboat (TSP) is only part of that. My wife also has a very nice defined contribution plan. All the information I access is applicable to all my accounts - even those I manage.
 
"It was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting, got that. My sitting tight. To date, the 30-day moving average for the SPX remains unbroken and therefore the trend is still technically up. As long as this trend kine is unbroken, stock prices can still go higher before the market reverses its trend."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/18846/the-jessie-livermore-stock-market

The NYAD (Daily) Cumulative at 114428.80 is a new all time high - this rally will continue. Friday there were 492 new yearly highs on the NYSE with only 6 new lows. If the NYSE reaches or exceeds its April highs and new 52 weeks highs do not confirm, that would be a red flag.
 
"Since the March 9, 2009 bottom, U.S. stocks are up 80% - the strongest bull run since WWII, according to research firm Birinyi Associates, which this week called the market 'overbought' at current levels but firmly in a multiyear bull market nonetheless. Many daily RSI's in the 80's. Everything 70 or higher."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24087.html
 
Birchtree said:
"It was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting, got that. My sitting tight. ..."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/18846/the-jessie-livermore-stock-market
Click to expand...
That was one of the most important things I learned by reading Jesse Livermore. And every time I've forgotten it my broker has made money but I haven't. Now I really try to remember to stay put as long as I don't get a dead cross on my charts.

Thanks for the reminder!

Maggie
 
this ought to perk you up:
Current Dow Rally, Duration and Magnitude

Current Dow Rally Relative to Prior 27 Bulls Over 110 Years
20101105.gif
 
A few choice comments from my WSJ of a few days back.

"With the Fed poyentially buying $900 billion of that, it leaves very little for the rest of us. That scenario would result in downward pressure on yields across nearly the entire bond market. In turn, that could provide a tail wind for the U.S. stock market, said Erin Browne a macro stock market strategist at Citigroup. From her vantage point, Ms. Browne said it appears that many hedge funds haven't participated in the recent rally in stocks, which has seen the Dow rise 12.3% since late August. Given that stocks are under-owned and valuations are cheap, equities are going to be fast to respond as the Fed actually starts its bond market purchases."
 
Coal is heating up the place today. Here are my DCA prices for ANR: $44.25, $50.40, $53.80, $37.66, $35.56, $37.01, $39.74, $45.24 - it's racking $48.10 today. ACI is also hot but the buys are longer with my last purchase at $27.46 and today it's $29.75. The VIX is slowly receding today with the small cap R2K going positive - who knows we may tack a rally before the close.
 
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