Birchtree's Account Talk

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Last week when the Dow took a 165 hit my oceanic gave back $59K on that day - however I gained back $51K the next day on a gain of Dow +129. I actually ended up $12K to the good on the week - that doesn't appear to be the case this week. I'm ready for the scarifice because if you can't take the pain forget about the gains. I'd like to see $0.25 or better taken off the S fund - bring it right on down. They're all talking about my Jeremy Grantham post on the floor. Don't miss it. Post #9654.
 
SWAVET,

You have jumped into 100% S fund - you are going to be hard to beat unless we have several more days of downside - in which case I'm on my way to take your tracker rank.
 
My oceanic ended the day down only $18K - quite a change from earlier in the day. I'm becoming a believer that the 4-year cycle did in fact bottom in July. But I'll hold my 20% G position awhile longer just in case we get hit with a quick blind side.
 
Birchtree said:
SWAVET,

You have jumped into 100% S fund - you are going to be hard to beat unless we have several more days of downside - in which case I'm on my way to take your tracker rank.
Click to expand...

I'm hoping history repeat itself of Gridlock, then 20% gain for the next couple months are most likely. Several more days of downside - I hope not, but sells-on-the-news for 11/2 & 11/3...
 
Can anyone shed light on the $SPX 50 day moving up since 21 Oct while the MACD has been moving down? Or am I reading chart wrong?
 
That's certainly not unusual. More divergences are showing up as a warning - but may not mean anything in the longer term - short term we are set up for a sweet consolidation - so I say bring it because I'm waiting. The more pain at this point in time the better - be prepared for the bull rocket lift off in November into Q1 2011.
 
A little more good news for us turtles. #39 lbeeba8862 has moved off the road to the shoulder with 100% G from 100% S. There will be a small price to pay if we close down but it all helps. It won't be long and I'll be singing my Tom Dooley song if the S fund tanks. Hurt me, hurt me, please give me a full dose of that old fashioned pain - you know the kind I like. Hammer me like a fine piece of silver. I got cheated yesterday - but today will make up the difference.
 
I simply couldn't stanz it no more - I had to do some wall flower shopping: MEE, JNY, HUN, MTW, JCI. I'm just a reckless rascal when it comes to value purchasing. This darn market is trying to rebound - the bull will not propitiate.
 
Not yet, but I would like to squeak past you on the tracker - your holding #51 with 60S and 40I - tighter than a wedgie.

"Only if we lost 1143 would there be reason for any major concern. A nive balance is in place and showing no signs of changing, which remains the best possible news for the bulls."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23836.html

I think the Fed is going to go all in with QE2 as their last chance to boost the economy. This leaves several days for the market to consolidate before the announcement - I'm just hedging at 20% G to possibly capture any potential give back. I keep waiting but so far no cigar. This market could eventually blast higher leaving mom and pop in their bonds - it would be a classic move.
 
Believe me, i'm not happy w/ my allocation into the I-fund if the dollar starts strengthening while equities do too. A super strong GDP report could be that catalyst to change the current $/equity trade, but could also be a quick head fake. Oscar makes an awesome technical arguement for it going in that direction. I too think we're going to get some quick sale prices in the coming days in the markets but I also think if the powers that be are willing to risk all these POMO moves and capital, they'd want the charts to look like a breakout versus a double top (there's where'd they'd get the most punch for billions spent). So, just piercing that top and holding for a week or so would completely change short/mid/long term traders future guessing and hedging. That quick shift from bond holders to equity holders that you've been waiting for could be within the next 5 business days.
 
Birchtree said:
I got cheated yesterday - but today will make up the difference.
Click to expand...

Ah Birch, there's no way in #(#+ you can get cheated. Man you are totally set and nothing is going to damage you no matter what happens.

Even in the worse case senario -- where some Solar Flare randomly destroys any trace of any account you have -- and you lose everything and become 'homeless' - with 'no money'. Even in the most remote 'impossibility' like that -- you'd be more than comfortable in my home and I'd take ya out daily -- and come up with random ideas of 'giving you money' ....for walking in a store and doing this .... or going up to whoever and saying ...

You should totally flip your wife out .... tell her it's time to have a little fun and spend a little money ... and do something super spectacular !! But get away from the hustle and bustle -- Hawaii's highlights for instance are the special places ....

Hmmm....I just remembered about you being a suba diving champ with world records and all -- so Costa Rica coast -- Virgin Islands...
 
That's perfect Birch !!!

Absolutely amazing. My most recent plans are so incredibly similar. I'd been looking over some areas near Custer State Park -- in the Black Hills of SD -- to spend a week riding horses -- really wanting a 'get away' I'd never had -- but have inwardly yearned for.

Thanks man --- seriously !! :)
 
"Many investors with formal training in finance will recognize this concept, as the stock market is said to be a leading indicator of economic activity. That is to say that it anticipates developments as opposed to reacting to them. This is why we continually preach that investors can't make money from what has already happened, only by anticipating how the future will unfold."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/18717/market-to-dems-youre-fired
 
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