Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

JamesE,

I couldn't find you on the tracker - perhaps I need more candle power with my light. Anyway the way I see it - every dog eventually has his day and mine is coming - I think.

 

[JamesE]

That's cuz I'm not on it! I plan to get on it in Jan. I've done pretty good this year, made 3 emotional moves out and got burned on all of em... Love my S tho!!!!

 

[72Zorad]

Birchtree,
This is what I was asking about yesterday. According to my graphs of all the TSP funds the C never does as well as the S and I when things are good but does as poorly when things are bad. Of course, my charts only go back to 2003. Am I perhaps looking at a subset of data that is too small?

Thanks,

 

[Birchtree]

I started investing in 1973 - so I've seen the cycles. Small caps will rest at some point and the large caps will then provide leadership. Patience is required, though. It will happen subtedly - hardly noticeable at first while everyone is happy. Always shop where the angels fear to tread is my moto. I'm reminded of the song by the Chambers Brothers - "Time Has Come Today".

 

[JTH]

I started investing in 1973 - so I've seen the cycles. Small caps will rest at some point and the large caps will then provide leadership. Patience is required, though. It will happen subtedly - hardly noticeable at first while everyone is happy. Always shop where the angels fear to tread is my moto. I'm reminded of the song by the Chambers Brothers - "Time Has Come Today".

If I recall correctly, last year the selloff happened a bit early (perhaps everyone trying to be first to abandon the ship) Then the S-Fund kicked into gear and out performed going into the new year early as well. Is this correct?

 

[Birchtree]

At the beginning of the year in January '10 I was busy running from a potential margin call. Selling to stay in front of the damage and then the rally started up peaking in April. The rally off the March '09 bottom was led by small caps. When they run out of steam is the question. If the GDP is to remain in the 2% area the small caps may finally hit the wall and the large S&P types step up to the plate with their 40% earnings coming from over seas to include the emerging markets - either way I'm covered to participate.

 

[Birchtree]

Our current rally move is now more reminiscent of the April rally. We may have a few more days of upside until we crack the 1200 level which may be the next temorary peak. This may bring on a consolidation to correct any overbought and divergent trends. How deep will be the question. If the 4-year cycle transmits pressure we could be finished within 4 days and headed back up post election results. My bet is going to be that we take the hit next week - hard and fast right down to the Dow 50 EMA at 10,687 on an intraday move. Just enough to scare the weak hands back to safety. My plan is to sink a 20% position into the S fund as close to $17.75 as I can get. Let the good times roll.

 

[fedgolfer]

yup... it's not a double top... it'll look a cup and handle breakout after the election. the 50 day looks like a great area for support in the handle. Way too many people got defensive approaching the double top. Including me. Weekly candlsticks show breakouts in the $tran, QQQQ's, etc, just so happens that the 50 day will coincide with a retest of the breakout line... if we get a full retest.

 

[JTH]

It's good to see you projecting your goals. Do you have a plan B?

 

[Birchtree]

Plan B is to sit tight and ride this wooley beast as far as it wants to go - we are in a multi-year secular bull market. I'll start doing some stock buying in November pushing my margin balance to the next level. The SPX could be at 1475 by the end of December and I want to participate in that action. Interest rates will likely remain low through the 2H of 2011 - with good earnings projected to last should be a positive for stocks. We'll also have the 2, 4, and 6 year cycles acting in uniform to pull prices higher. It's a great Tony Tiger time to be an investor in risk assets - wait until the bond crowd starts their move to equities...who knows where the top is at this time.

 

[Birchtree]

FWIW I'll be 20G/50C/30I COB 10/22 which just happens to be my wedding anniversary - the wife asked me if I remembered it the other day - got it right on the third try.

 

[Birchtree]

"Since the March 2009 lows and throughout this new Bull Market Cycle, inestors are pulling money out of equity funds in droves and piling into bonds. This is the fight or flight mentality taking hold of the herd, and as they continue to disbelieve in the new bull cycle in stocks, the market continues to power higher. The Elliott wave patterns I've been outlining have continued to foretell a bullish move possibly of historic proportions." Now wouldn't that be classic?

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23653.html

 

[Birchtree]

Will this bull rock my boat tomorrow - I hope so. I've been psyched all day to go out and mow my lawn and then plant more carrots - but the grass is growing slowly now and the carrots are extra - so since I'm retired Mindylou and I are going to take our nap instead. What a privilege. I'll mow the lawn tomorrow, plant those carrots and pick more beans.

 

[Birchtree]

My oceanic account has shown gains for the last 5 weeks - so far this week I'm ahead by $6K but tomorrow may break the trend. Here is what the week looks like so far: +19K, -$59K, +$51K, -$5K. It was my small cap positions that pulled me down from being up $37K early in the morning. Perhaps tomorrow any gains will stick...

 

[Birchtree]

http://financialsense.com/contributors/sy-harding/warning-from-sentiment-and-rsi

 

[Birchtree]

"Best time to buy stocks since 1980s: Legg Mason's Miller."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39739536

 

[Birchtree]

I bought the August 1982 bottom and made $300K in the next ten months - it's what happened next that has me concerned about the small cap indexes. Not sounding any alarms but caution is warranted in my opinion.

 

[Birchtree]

"The dominant interim indicator is based on a rate of change in the NYSE new highs - new lows. This particular indicator has been stubbornly in decline since April. Only when the interim momentum indicator showes decided improvement will the air be cleared enough to embrace an uninhibited bullish bias."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23681.html

 

[Birchtree]

So the Military Times is looking around to give themselves a bad reputation. Please come on in and wear your black boots guys - please be careful not to handle the C4. I know what this is about and this site has been nothing but respectful of the military and their war deaths. You guppies are way out on the extreme.

 

[Steadygain]

So the Military Times is looking around to give themselves a bad reputation. Please come on in and wear your black boots guys - please be careful not to handle the C4. I know what this is about and this site has been nothing but respectful of the military and their war deaths. You guppies are way out on the extreme.

Here I was comming to razz you about the 'S Fund' :nuts:

But now I'd give you a big hug -- and tell ya that's why I love you so much and why you really are such a super wonderful big brother.

Well put Birch