Birchtree's Account Talk

[72Zorad]

Ah, I knew that....now it all makes sense. Didn't put two and two together.

 

[Steadygain]

Somehow I sense a general lack of optimism and perhaps an uncertainty that feels more like impending doom.

These are often a foreshadowing of the greatest and most substantial gains - and dare I say - when the BULL most comes to life.

Are we entering a new phase of history that counters everything we have known up to this point in time? - or is this simply another moment that has happened repeatedly throughout - where it 'feels like it is' but in the end it turns out everyone was wrong.

In the end - those who stand strong - gain the most and are also the most confident and are by far the ones most prepared for whatever uncertainties lie ahead.

 

[Birchtree]

The small caps are coming off a ten year period of outperformance - it's time for the large caps to have their time in the sun. Prior to the small cap run, the large caps were outperforming for about five years - these sector choices seem to run in long cycles. I have many small caps in my oceanic account so I'm participating in an alternate way and pulling dividends for reinvestment. My wife has 26,000 shares of an SPX index fund in her defined contribution plan - so we wait for the second coming of the large caps. In the meantime she buys a fund that is reasonably priced collecting more shares.

 

[Birchtree]

Steady,

It's time to get invested. The Dow has stayed above its' 200-week moving average now for two consecutive weeks. The average is currently holding 10,974. The SPX can smell the 200-week MA at 1195. Once we get above 1222 there is nothing but air all the way to 1500. With all the cash on the sidelines 300 points is nothing. You don't want to miss the next two months and beyond.

 

[Steadygain]

My wife has 26,000 shares of an SPX index fund.

I'm thrilled to hear this Birch - and she continues displaying the most solid investment strategy imaginable. Obviously she decided to reduce her SPX holdings to achieve greater diversification.

You might consider discussing the possibility of 'in house banking' and see if she's willing to function as the exectutor. Just a thought.


Well time for lunch.

 

[Steadygain]

Steady,

It's time to get invested.

Hmmm

Investments are 'risky' - even to the point many would consider it 'gambling'

I'm good Birch - life is wonderful !!

 

[Birchtree]

The wife wants even more SPX type shares - no reduction for diversification. Her objective is to accumulate as many shares as possible while she is still working. If the market went no where for the next several years she'd be pleased. Getting up toward the 40,000 share level would be ideal - but the higher it goes in price the fewer shares bought. But we can't have everything. The nice thing about this plan is that she is not required to pull income when she retires - that will help us control our income while retired. I like that potential flexibility.

 

[Birchtree]

Here is a little something I pulled from my WSJ a few weeks back. I'm thinking about the 2012 presidential race - Rice/Palin.

"Of the five main players in the Bush administration - Dick Cheney, Colin Powell, Donald Rumsfeld, Ms. Rice and the president himself - Ms. Rice was the one who succeeded best at being imperturbable, even inscrutable, the one to whom the least obloquy came to be attached in the minds of critics. The key to her composure in office - which was a mix of womanly grace and analytical rigor - lies in the manner in which she was raised. In this, America owes a debt to John and Angelena Rice, parents extraordinarilly pushy - parents extraordinarily brave."

 

[Birchtree]

This pain feels good - slowly approaching the time to start buying more stock. So many sweet wall flowers waiting for a home. Down one day up the next - today is just fear. But fear is usually my friend. This should encourage a few more trackers to head for safety and then I creep up the ranks.

 

[Devilduck]

Ready for the dip buyers any minute now...

 

[Birchtree]

Perhaps not - the bull wants to lock in a few more short bears and then take them out back tomorrow. I'll watch and wait because I have no fear yet. The true test may come next week if the 4-year cycle is active - until then I rest.

 

[WorkFE]

Four days of the 4-year cycle pressure would do it.

I've got my poker chips ready in the event that happens.

 

[Steadygain]

The wife wants even more SPX type shares - no reduction for diversification. Her objective is to accumulate as many shares as possible while she is still working. If the market went no where for the next several years she'd be pleased. Getting up toward the 40,000 share level would be ideal - but the higher it goes in price the fewer shares bought. But we can't have everything. The nice thing about this plan is that she is not required to pull income when she retires - that will help us control our income while retired. I like that potential flexibility.

Actually - I knew that Birch

My comment was meant to paint the dream that her 26,000 shares were just a fraction of her current investments.

Was trying to give you the opportunity to say something like: 'Yeah Steady, she put the other 74,000 shares in equally attractive (if not superior) investment.

But you're a good man Birch -- and you're integrity shows.

Here is a little something I pulled from my WSJ a few weeks back. I'm thinking about the 2012 presidential race - Rice/Palin.

"Of the five main players in the Bush administration - Dick Cheney, Colin Powell, Donald Rumsfeld, Ms. Rice and the president himself - Ms. Rice was the one who succeeded best at being imperturbable, even inscrutable, the one to whom the least obloquy came to be attached in the minds of critics. The key to her composure in office - which was a mix of womanly grace and analytical rigor - lies in the manner in which she was raised. In this, America owes a debt to John and Angelena Rice, parents extraordinarilly pushy - parents extraordinarily brave."

Well I'm thinkn' we are finally being bought to a place where the population at large is seeing the real truth and it is one that most of us will deeply resent and rise up against.

The 'government by the people and for the people' and the 'one nation under God ... with liberty and justice for all' is LIE that has been replaced by Corporate greed and corruption.

My guess is a 'Tea Party' - will very strongly dominate the population at large and 'WE' will put in office representatives that topple the machinery that has driven every administration throughout our lives Birch.

2012 - will far more mark the total control of Corporations and their ability to put in place the people of their choosing.

That will make a real 'Tea Party' even stronger - so canidates who deeply possess what you hope these 2 hold - can finally come to power.


Well good night all

 

[Birchtree]

http://pragcap.com/goldman-sp-headed-1275

 

[Steadygain]

Here is a little something I pulled from my WSJ a few weeks back. I'm thinking about the 2012 presidential race - Rice/Palin.

Morning Birch, (and everyone else)

I thought about my post yesterday and it was wrong of me to voice my political views the way I did. In fact too many of my posts overall don't give enough credit to others feelings.

All the more in your own home you should be able to say whatever you want without me adding some garbage or in retrospect taking from what you wanted to make known.

I hope whoever runs the race (and wins) are not only the people you most feel would benefit our country - but all the more I would be thrilled to see them make a notable difference in making our country great.

That's all that matters to me Birch. I want the USA to not only be what it's supposed to be - but all the more would want Nations around the world to recognize and 'respect' the difference we make.

Anyway - Rice/Palin - fine with me.

 

[Birchtree]

From a previous post somewhere in the back. "It is possible that the 4-year cycle bottomed in July along with the 2-year cycle. If it has, this would considerably reduce the impact of that time frame on the market. How much retracement actually occurs will help gauge the probable strength of the next bull market phase. A move beyond 1130 would confirm the start of an uptrend since it would give a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. If the market can hold for the next 10 weeks - we are headed higher to SPX 1492 and Dow 14,000." I'll feel more comfortable at the end of next week if we get the hammer - that's my anticipation as a nice entry point. We may see the Dow 50 EMA of 10,687 come into play for a sweet consolidation.

 

[Steadygain]

I'm really scared about things right now ~ mainly because of the Gulf getting destroyed. I think the 42,000 Gallons spilling out (per day) is a media 'cover up' to down play what's really going on.

At 42,000 gallons per day it would take about 260 days to equal the 11 million gallon spill from the Exxon Valdez in 1989.

The most recent article I read using the Exxon Valdez spill for comparison stated it took '4 days' - to equal that amount.

That would be 65 times higher - 260/4 - but I'm amazed the Markets were not weakened and all the more amazed the gas prices didn't go way up.

I think the market will not consider it.....as long as the oil flow is maintained on the rest of the wells.

I think that's my greatest 'weakness' when it comes to trying to play the Markets. I look too closely at potiential disasterous possibilities and have been far too prone to let geo-political and environmental senarios guide my judgement.

I need to look more at the bottom line (as long as the oil flow is maintained) and factors that are more significant. Anyway, too often I get focused on something that may be extremely important to me and hugely influence my 'emotions' - and then make a very dumb move in changing investments. :embarrest:

Mmmm - maybe I need to make a switch - totally :suspicious:

 

[Birchtree]

You've waited this long - I'd wait until after the election because I think some of the S funders are going to get toasted real soon. Then get back in for the ride.

 

[Birchtree]

This snap back today is just the kind of market that makes you feel good - complacent. I'm afraid it will catch many flat footed - I'm trying to avoid that. I'll be moving another 10% off the table later this week - perhaps COB Friday. Then wait for the hammer to fall for three days before I reenter. My plan is to be 100% risk by 10/29. This maneuver may or may not help me gain on the S funders - but I suspect they may get toasted for a few days. I'd be a buyer of the S fund close to $17.75.

 

[JamesE]

You've waited this long - I'd wait until after the election because I think some of the S funders are going to get toasted real soon. Then get back in for the ride.

Geez Birch, when are you gonna give it up about the S fund? :laugh: We're half way thru October and the YTD numbers STILL look great. I remember you teasing me about it back April, here we are same story.

13.97% for the S
6.22% for the C