Birchtree's Account Talk

[KevinD]

Birch - Can you provide a link to the "four year cycle" you talk about?

TIA

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Ah the sweet smell of superlative bull manure - can you smell what the bull is cookin. The hedge funds must be doing some serious buying - this could go on for many months. But where is that four-year cycle nesting - don't let your guard down because the blind side is awaiting - just turn the other cheek is what I usually do but this time I'm going to preempt this swing. The VIX is now below the 19 level and heading lower. I'm going to stay awhile longer - still got nine days before October trading ends.

19.09

 

[Birchtree]

KevinD,

here's one - http://www.safehaven.com/article/18301/a-look-at-the-stock-market-cycles

and another - http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22642.html

 

[KevinD]

Thanks brother!

 

[Birchtree]

http://theguruinvestor.com/2010/10/18/biggs-bullish-wants-more-easing/

 

[Birchtree]

I've been looking at the tracker trying to plot my move up the ranks. There are 31 heavy S funders ahead of me along with 7 F funders and 16 G funders. The approaching blind side will probably catch most of us off guard - but the S funders will bleed the most and there in awaits my opportunity to hustle. I've achieved my $14.25 on the C fund but I will wait a few more days before pulling back some - then hold on for the correction. If the 4-year cycle did in fact nest back in July then I move back into risk 100% and let'er rip. Watching the VIX hold fairly steady makes me think the rest of this week is safe - come the last week in October may be freaky - I hope so. I'd really like to zip into the S fund at $17.75 for the next leg higher after the consolidation.

 

[Birchtree]

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23591.html

Not yet - not until Friday when I'm ready.

 

[Devilduck]

that is a good read. Painful if support breaks especially with IFT's limitations.

 

[Devilduck]

I do have a question if someone can assist. Does moving from S fund for example to G fund use up one of the 2 montly IFT's?

 

[Birchtree]

Yes. You can make as many moves to G as you like - but if they are the first two moves then you have used your two IFTs with only moves to G remaining.

 

[Devilduck]

Thank you Birch. Ouch..nearly 2% down at opener. I'm really disliking analyst right now. Apple was up 5% however "less than" analyst expected so sell the news? That's crap. Crossing fingers on dip buyers to bring back up.

Is it fair to say if the dip buyers bring us back up withing C, S, I that we may then see more sell off from yesterdays buys bringing us back down to a low opener tomorrow? I'm watching the support and optimistic that today and tomorrow may be painful but hoping Thursday returns to a upward trend.

 

[SWAVET]

B.T. - Are you going to sell your MEE anytime soon?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/massey-energy-mulls-sale-shares-rise-2010-10-19?siteid=yhoof

 

[Birchtree]

I believe I'll hold my MEE and see how it shakes out. My desire would be for them to continue as a stand alone company - or perhaps they will buy another coal company.

 

[WorkFE]

S fund at 17.75 would be a significant pull back. I may have to hook my G fund caboose to your money train if that happens:nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

It's only $1.38 down from here - a couple of $0.50 hits would get me real close. Four days of the 4-year cycle pressure would do it. But I'm not ready until next week - today is just a shot across the bow to make good folks nervous. We rally the next several days to rebuild confidence and then the pain arrives. We'll see how it works out.

 

[Devilduck]

Any more big reports do today? Looking like a march sideways,

 

[Valkyrie]

It's only $1.38 down from here - a couple of $0.50 hits would get me real close. Four days of the 4-year cycle pressure would do it. But I'm not ready until next week - today is just a shot across the bow to make good folks nervous. We rally the next several days to rebuild confidence and then the pain arrives. We'll see how it works out.

when the S&P hits 1200 its to the G&F for me.

 

[Birchtree]

"Equity income alternatives to bonds."

http://static.safehaven.com/pdfs/shaw_2010_10_18.pdf

 

[72Zorad]

Birchtree,
I see from the AutoTracker you are 55% in the C....I'm curious why the C. From the share prices graph the C looks like a bad choice. It doesn't appear to perform as well as the S or I when things are good and performs as poorly when things are bad.
Of course my overall returns for the year aren't quite as high as yours so not questioning your intelligence....just looking for the wisdom.

Thanks,

72Zorad

 

[KevinD]

Birchtree is a slow and steady, large cap permaBull. Period.