Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

"Low interest rates can contribute to financial bubbles even if they are not a primary culprit" says Janet Yellen of the Fed. Well how long will I have to wait for my equity bubble.

 

[Birchtree]

http://theguruinvestor.com/2010/10/11/why-the-dissonant-market-is-great-news/

 

[Birchtree]

"Stock market VIX breaks down...implications. If you don't have patience in this type of market environment then you'll likely make a lot of emotional decisions. Expecting big market swings, and then not getting them, can lead to a give up mentality. The chances of the VIX just exploding back up are bascially non-existent."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23431.html

 

[Birchtree]

Here comes SPX 1170 - it might be wise to remember that this bullish rally has surprised many while breaking a lot of rules. Make me money. C'mon hedge money lead me to nirvana.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm trying to ignore that creeping feeling of panic that is starting - the panic of I should be buying myself into happiness. But I'm leary of that 4-year cycle coming home. I'm actually in deep enough to let'er run awhile longer before I really step up enough to do myself damage. I saw the VIX at 18.59 and if earnings are good on CSX after the close we'll get a nice bull leg tomorrow I predict. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

This market is pushy today so I'm doing a few buys early for my lamb chop account: MEE, AA, ACI. Can you feel the anxiety building from the side lines - especialy if anyone watches Oscar. There are so many underinvested and that is a classic bullish stance - keep'em out of the market for as long as possible.

 

[Birchtree]

"The HSNSI currently at 25.9%, consider that it stood at 65.5% on April 26th."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/contrarian-analysis-is-bullish-on-stocks-2010-10-13

 

[JTH]

Here comes SPX 1170 - it might be wise to remember that this bullish rally has surprised many while breaking a lot of rules. Make me money. C'mon hedge money lead me to nirvana.

1170 has been the market pundits target for some time now. For me this usually means the market will find a way to over-shoot our expectations. Note: Please pardon the sloppy drawing, it was done on the fly.

View attachment 10072

 

[Birchtree]

Thanx JTH - not many people are focusing on that inverse head and shoulders pattern - perhaps that's why it's working.

"Chinese stocks have rallied almost 10% in just the last 4 sessions and over 20% from their summer lows."

http://pragcap.com/china-continues-forecast-strong-u-s-equity-environment

 

[WorkFE]

Still a ways to go until the VIX is in the window.

 

[Birchtree]

I noticed where four of our top 50 trackers moved to safety today. Taking equity off the table in this momentum market is a gutsy play. An opportunity knocks.

 

[Devilduck]

Anyone know what kicked AGG into the green in a hurry while downtrending C,S, &I? All in the green puts smiles on my face don't get me wrong, just looking for answer to steep reverse in daily trend?

 

[Birchtree]

Interest rates moved down so bonds went up. More talk on QE2.

 

[Devilduck]

Thanks Birch. QE2 is also known as Queen Elizabeth 2 or in Quantitative Easing known as the titantic...gotta love google.:nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

http://www.safehaven.com/article/18550/the-big-bullish-picture-for-stocks

 

[crws]

Anyone know what kicked AGG into the green in a hurry while downtrending C,S, &I? All in the green puts smiles on my face don't get me wrong, just looking for answer to steep reverse in daily trend?

10 year bond auction
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2010/2010_10year.htm

results here

PS- 30 year tomorrow
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2010/2010_30year.htm

 

[DCRanger]

Enjoyed that article. Thanks for sharing.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/18550/the-big-bullish-picture-for-stocks

 

[Birchtree]

" The amount of money getting pumped into the market cannot last and it will lead to a huge volume reversal day in due time. Until this happens the market will trade higher."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/18556/mid-week-market-report-on-equities-and-metals

 

[WorkFE]

Thanks BT, good read

 

[Birchtree]

I believe I could actually enjoy a little beat down today as long as the I fund holds up. I'm still looking for $17.75 on the S fund as a potential buy in point. If I can get that price I should move up the tracker a few more slots.