Birchtree's Account Talk

[WorkFE]

The VIX is under assault.

 

[Birchtree]

Once we take out that 21.50 support level money will flow like honey into the market. I hope we don't see the 16 level until sometime Q2 in 2011 - that will allow many dollars to be collected before the next serious correction. I may have to move up my market guess today from +212 to +280. Not to be too cynical, but I'd like to see the F fund burn off $0.15 today just to set the tone for next week.

 

[Birchtree]

Holy mackeral Andy, I didn't think anyone other than myself bought the toxic banks when they stunk so badly - sure was a good play.

http://theguruinvestor.com/2010/09/24/top-hedge-fund-manager-talks-strategy/

 

[Birchtree]

"Shorting bonds will be the best trade in the coming decade."

http://www.cnbc.com//id/39344167

 

[ATCJeff]

I'm still in with ya brother!

Jeff

 

[Warrenlm]

I guess it's a good day to be clucking. Two more of our top 15 have moved to the lily pad COB. They are #11 - hotshot and #13 - Truehonest. Thanks guys that break will help come next week. Yup, fear drives out greed in the bears and greed drives out fear in the bulls. Now I'm forced to chase the most bearish bull I know - JTH. He'll move back to safety soon enough and then I boing ahead.

Were you this competitive on the job?

 

[Birchtree]

What a wonderful day - now get ready for some panic buying to kick in next week. There is so much money getting left behind that simply has to get invested - hedge funds especially. I'll do all I can to increase my buying - anything to help the cause. The April high is in sight and we could push right on by that level. Snort. As Mr. Jefferson would say, "Movin on up".

 

[Birchtree]

Moo Ya - check out the video.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/investing/JubacksJournal/be-ready-for-the-rallys-end.aspx

 

[Birchtree]

Moo Ya - check out the video.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/investing/JubaksJournal/be-ready-for-the-rallys-end.aspx

 

[Birchtree]

Well my oceanic fell short of my money goal for the week - but I'll keep trying. Here's what the money looked like throughout the week: +$59K, -$16K, -$18K, -$35K, +$84K = a sum total of +$74K. The account peaked at week #59 with $1294K and bottomed at week #69 with $624K. Now at week #81 off the March '09 low I'm at $1036K - that was a wicked 16% correction we had. I now have 14 more weeks to make the second $M - it's anybodies guess at this point. If we rally hard I'll make the $2M mark - if not well I'll just have to wait until 2011. I have some strong buying power available >$1M and will put some of that coin to work once the VIX goes below support of 21.50. I need to help my bullish friends push this market higher. Don't be cruel to a love that's true. I'm looking for a strong bull ride right into Christmas - but first I've got to get through the pressure of the 4-year cycle. "After this month both the 2-year cycle will be up until next September along with the 4-year cycle and 6-year cycle (which also peaks next September). With these three cycles in the up phase heading into 2011, the stock market should have enough of an impulse to keep the recovery alive and make headway through most of 2011 before the 6-year cycle peaks a year from now". ibid cliff droke.

 

[Birchtree]

I wanted to mention that my sacrificial lamb chop account is still intact and I only came within $37K of having to use it during the correction. I developed the lamb chop to protect my oceanic base from any margin calls. So I'll continue to add assets to the lamb chop as well as further build my base for dividend income. I suspect that by the end of 2011 I'll have a long market value of $5M - the bigger I get the easier it is to make money in a mega trend secular bull market. So if we can get through SPX 1150 the next short term goal would be 1170 - then comes 1222. Gee, we could see 1496 by the end of the year - wouldn't that spin some heads.

 

[Birchtree]

"Stock market keeps rolling higher. The advance-decline line since this rally began has been nothing short of spectacular. The long-term downtrend line on the weekly S&P 500 comes in at 1160."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22983.html

 

[Birchtree]

I know I'm such a dreamer - but here goes. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the third and final reading of the GDP comes in close to 2.0% - because of the durable goods numbers this past week were stronger than estimated. That would absolutely clobber the bond market. And there is nothing holding back the bullish stampede from crushing the short hair bears. If we can pop the SPX level of 1160 all hoofers will go wild - even those on the sidelines. Could this be the beginning of the early stages of a 3 of 3 of 3 move that will last deep into 2011 - ain't nobody going see it coming.

 

[Birchtree]

"Trend channel analysis suggest stocks are about to fall. On the other hand, a decisive rise above the upper boundary line could be quite Bullish."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/18326/trend-channel-analysis-suggest-stocks-are-about-to-fall

 

[Birchtree]

"My best estimate, at this stage of the wave structure, is for a top around the previous SPX 1576 high by February 2012." Allah knows I sure don't want to wait that long.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23007.html

 

[Birchtree]

"On Friday 98% of the S&P 500 companies were up. According to Reuters, after the midterm elections, the S&P 500 has posted gains 18 out of the last 19 times. In the following six months the returns were up 13% on average, and up 17% after 12 months. Maybe the markets are looking ahead."

http://greefaucet.com/the-market/no-fear/64754

 

[Birchtree]

"On Friday 98% of the S&P 500 companies were up. According to Reuters, after the midterm elections, the S&P 500 has posted gains 18 out of the last 19 times. In the following six months the returns were up 13% on average, and up 17% after 12 months. Maybe the markets are looking ahead."

http://greenfaucet.com/the-market/no-fear/64754

 

[Birchtree]

If the futures are correct this evening it's going to be hot, hot, hot on the opening.

 

[Corepuncher]

If the futures are correct this evening it's going to be hot, hot, hot on the opening.

And a "hell" of a lot hotter once we pass 666 and Lucifer is standing on the ledge laughing as we fall past. I hope you are selling the rallies.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm trying to avoid any selling for the rest of the year primarily for tax reasons. I did take some profits back in February and now taxes will be due.

"It now looks as if the SPX started a cyclical bull market in March 2009 and that it completed an intermediate correction at 1011 befotre resuming its uptrend. The first phase of the new uptrend ended at 1130 and a short term correction down to 1041 ensued - probably as a result of the 4-year cycle making its low. Since then, an initial target of 1148 has been met, and the index appears to be deliberating whether it should move up to its next projection of 1168 before correcting into the 9-mo/17-wk cycle lows due around 10/18."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/18330/turning-points