Birchtree's Account Talk

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My fantasy for the day is to have my oceanic account close +$56K - that would put me +$200K for my first week ever. I've had several negative $200K weeks to the downside during the recent correction. Week #61 - 5/3 to 5/7 saw a -$278K, and week #63 - 5/17 to 5/21 saw a -$209K. Dates that will live in infamy. But I'm back on the come back trail and will reach my previous highs - soon. My previous peak was reached at week #59 from the March 9th low at $1294K - the tide is returning. So open up this market for the buyers. By the way, my low point was week #69 - 6/28 to 7/2 at $624K - you can figure out the hit for yourselves. No pain means no gains. Ah, don't worry JTH I've still got plenty left to throw done the well. My asset base remains intact and will power me back to highs in short order because the bull market rages on.
 
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He's mine today COB. The bullish motor is revving up. Maybe my fantasy will come true. It would be excellent if the VIX were to break its 200 day MA at 23.50 level - then support at 22.50 will break. !0,400 in view.
 
The question now becomes: when will we get the next SPX golden cross? If this type of momentum persists into next week - perhaps the cross will come Friday. The last hour today should be full of climactic activity on the buy side. The sellnerds all got out on Wednesday. Time for bond money to start rolling over into equities.
 
Birchtree said:
Time for bond money to start rolling over into equities.
Click to expand...
My view is that may take a little time, I think it will be noticed more dramatically in Gold first.
Volume looks decent, but has a bit to go to be on par with the weeks average, is that your take?
 
There is a take over offer for Genzyme - we are going to see more M&A activity with interest rates so low and companies drowning in cash. I suspose I'll end up giving up several of my wall flowers to these guys - it always happens but at a premium. So let's see some serious panic buying to spur even more buying - heck we could be up over 200 points on the close again. How sweet it is. My investment adviser (Mindylou) suggests I need to raise selective cash to chase my wall flowers that are running with the bulls.
 
Well I ended up short on my fantasy for today - made only $47K instead of the $56K I wanted. I'll make it up next week and try again. It's time for my daily nap.
 
Men and women who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a speculator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. I'm getting ready for the continuation of the mega trend secular multi-year bull market and the Elliott 'third of the third' point of recognition, the epi center of an enormous advance - catch the wave if you dare.

"My read is that the Dow theory bullish primary trend change that occurred in conjunction with the advance out of the March 2009 low still remains intact in accordance to orthodox Dow theory."

http://financialsense.com/contributors/tim-w-wood-cpa/a-brief-dow-theory-update
 
Hey Birch -- gosh darn it


I frequently clean out the PMs -- and don't even think about it


If you have the PM -- I sent you -- talking about our 'little sister'

would you please send it back -- so I can finsih up
 
Last week was a good week - my oceanic took in $192K which was $8K short of my fantasy. At week # 72 from the March '09 bottom I'm up $915K which leaves me $379K to go to get back to my previous peak of $1294K at week #59. I think I'm going to zip right back on up to the highs. This 16% correction was a miserable one and really took me to task as far as courage goes. If I can have a good week coming perhaps I can get back to $1000K - that's one million. My goal was to make the two million mark by week #93 and I'll stick to that plan. All assets are still intact and ready to go to work for the bull. I did come close to a margin call that never came - looked fate in the eye on that one. I might raise some cash next week to buy more vestal wall flowers before they turn into roses.
 
"As oil demand growth accelerates and supply growth continues to constrict in the coming years, it is hard to imagine oil companies not regaining favor among investors. These companies take big risks and generate huge profit streams, along with high dividend yields that retiring like Betula papyrifera crave. It is almost impossible to imagine a future where investors don't once again start funneling huge amounts of capital into oil stocks and driving their prices much higher."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21344.html
 
Hmmm...
I begin to worry when I agree with too many of your posts, like the last 2. :laugh:
 
As a new margin player what has the recently completed correction taught me? I've learned that if I'm going to play that dangerous game that I must leave a substantial buffer to protect my asset base. My figure appears to be $600K which is a great sacrifice because that much buffer will buy plenty of wall flowers. I did build a nice lamb chop portfolio for protection that I never had to use - but I did come close. Maybe I can leave $300K as a buffer doubting we'll see another steep correction this year and any 8% consolidations will be handled. Now I need $100K this week - with a good bounce in my tugboat account. Let's see if JTH takes a bite this week. Snort.
 
I would like to see the Dow +126 on the close - anything worth owning is worth paying up to get. Mindylou is pushing me to raise cash because this bull might have legs. I just finished looking over my last tax return to familiarize myself with how much more profit I can endure. My greed factor is kicking me to chase - I can wait until margin valuation returns to provide new buying power - but I'm ready to buy now. Life shouldn't be this difficult as an investor. I'll wait until 1300 hours to make my moves - hedging a little because I know what I sell will keep going up.
 
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