Birchtree's Account Talk

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It concerns me that we opened with the gap. We did that a couple of weeks ago and closed lower. I agree the markets are at a buying point but that gap at the open is a red flag to me.

Steve
 
The SPX is now above the 200 EMA. This is one heck of a short covering rally - rip the fur right off those bears. If we can see a volume pick up then new buying is coming in. It's going to be a very long day for the negative group because the bulls are stampeding.
 
sdouglas3 said:
It concerns me that we opened with the gap. We did that a couple of weeks ago and closed lower. I agree the markets are at a buying point but that gap at the open is a red flag to me.

Steve
Click to expand...

I agree Birch. Big day today. My thoughts on the gap didn't pan out. So, hopefully the shorts will cover and markets move like they need to.

Steve
 
After the major correction in the 1998 market stocks went on to gain another 66% from the 1998 lows to the bull market highs of 2000. Major corrections of the magnitude we just experienced (16%) are rare within cyclical bulls, so the awesome buying opportunity we've been presented with won't repeat anytime soon. If you let fear get control you'll miss the market's next upward swing. I've got the animal spirits for risk and I'm trying to decide if I want to raise cash for fresh buying or just sit back and put my feet up. Today I'll rest because I'm already in real deep up to my chin.
 
Birchtree said:
The SPX is now above the 200 EMA. This is one heck of a short covering rally - rip the fur right off those bears. If we can see a volume pick up then new buying is coming in. It's going to be a very long day for the negative group because the bulls are stampeding.
Click to expand...

Too much too early, a classic example of blowing your wad before you get out the gate. Rookies...
 
That's only for teenagers. Many bears are now trapped - there is only one way out. A big take off was rather unsuspecting for the majority - but some of us prepare for just such a move. My heat seeker is turned on for next week - don't fire up.
 
I'm again reminded that bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything and I mean everything it can to make the majority skeptical (scared to death) and keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend. This is the time for long term investors to be greedy. When it comes to investing, nervousness is your friend, comfort your enemy.
 
I just checked on my oceanic account - up nicely but I can always use a few dollars more. I sure would like to see the VIX break support soon at 22.50 - that would lead to over 1131 on the SPX. We need to see a little panic buying today - I already did mine last week and now I wait until I can get back into margin buying power - then I'll turn on the bull in me to run in front of the train. Dow 10,350 is what I wish for on the close. I believe the 200 day MA on the VIX is around 23.50.
 
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Hey Birch,
Not trying to 'confuse' anyone here :toung: but I thought the Markets were supposed to fall through the floor and I'm pretty sure I was destined to lose everything by 'Staying IN'.

But you know what 'Big Brother' - when I finally saw the overall picture and considered all that had happened and how it came to play out and how it was 'BOUND TO GO' -- and know it.

Well I went 100% and have been perfectly content ever since. ;):D

So you may be holding your pants -- and maybe it's just cause you're a little older (and wiser) than me.

This has been a really good day !! :cool:
 
The shame of it all is that I have all this money tied up in stock - and here I sit cash poor. I could do some selling to raise cash if I get desperate enough but when ever I sell the prices keeps going up. So I'll try and wait patiently for more valuation which will free up margin cash for buying. I have another week to consider my moves - however I would like to spend myself into happiness. I've made 948 individual purchases since 6/26/09 so I should be content - but this is a generational bull market with so much potential. Snort.
 
Oh Rochester - the targets are falling today. I feel like I'm sitting behind a quad 50. We could ramp up +300 if some buy programs decide to kick in during the last hour.
 
Birchtree said:
The shame of it all is that I have all this money. Snort.
Click to expand...

Man - ya know that's pretty true Birch.

It is a 'shame' you have all that money. Damn it -- you got to go out there and start having fun Birch.

If you're like me, and basically have everything under the sun (and all the more can't seem to justify some needless cost on yourself) - then think of some other ways to do it.

Walk up to some total strangers - randomly - with $50 dollar bills -- and hand one to them and ask them if they can please help you see where it was printed .... or what year it printed ... whatever.

Once it's in their hands - tell em you've got money to blow and for them to do something wonderful with it -- ya know -- get something nice or do something really fun.

Then do that Indian Dance -- you do -- sing Hare Chistna -- and walk away.

Later man - not even half way done
 
It all comes down to this... what really brought us (more or less) to this point in the first place.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/marketforceslive/2010/jul/22/barclay-lloyds-banking-group

FTSE hit two-month high on stress test optimism.

As the day of reckoning dawns on Friday for banks across Europe, stock market traders are expecting the UK high
street's big names to be unscathed by the stress tests.

Barclays and Lloyds helped lead the strong march higher by the FTSE 100 on Thursday as investors generally expected
that the bad news in bank stress tests published by the Financial Services Authority
and its counterparts across Europe would be felt outside the UK.

After a shaky start on the back of Ben Bernanke's gloomy US outlook the night before, the FTSE managed to close at its highest level
for more than two months as banks, miners and energy companies joined forces to drive the rally.

the $ is dropping like a rock -1.03%
When a reversal takes hold in AGG to get back to pre-fear levels, I will be much more encouraged
about a break in this trading range whipsaw cycle.
-Although I continue to note for all interested in hearing, with the close of 7/02 DOW 9686,
today we still started at 4% up for the month.
 
Your 2.5% build today still won't catch me. I used the <1 rule to build to 10% CSI, then reduced to 6% at COB today. I will be at ~1.5% with zippo risk, and you will grow to about half that running naked through a briar patch of daily fluctuation.

I can't say I know what I am doing. But making money always feels good. Beating the G fund remains my next interim goal; maybe early next month.
 
"If you believe, like we do, the tail risk is low, then holding high quality equities with stable earnings in a zero growth environment will provide you with a far better yield than holding cash. If the economy eventually grows then this will be icing on the cake."

http://pragcap.com/left-tail-risk
 
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