Birchtree's Account Talk

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amoeba said:
I didn't say 20%.
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You must have said it, cause Birch's mind is like steel trap.


WARNING: Making any attempts to cover your countless short circuits and the never ending flaws by which you remember or even perceive anything ~~ will only make you look worse.
 
Birchtree said:
"This is not only a 12-month relative low, but a very strong buy signal in an ongoing bull market. It is not often that you get an entry point that is effectively as low as one a year earlier during such a strong move higher. In absolute terms, the SPX is back to October 2009 levels."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/17028/commodities-stock-buying-op
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Dude, October 2009 is - like, yesterday - and uhhh, you're right in your other post about the first derivative of the 200 DMA, but barely. I - for one - am willing to miss the rock bottom, and I have plenty of dry powder and the IFTs to act in an instant, if I feel like it.

But - no - this isn't the bottom, not yet. Everyone is going to now wait for the NEXT jobs report, as well as the NEXT post-stimulus housing sales number change.

FINALLY, the sentiment is moving towards the question: what is the economy going to be like, when the government stimuli run out?

Answer: more unemployment, fewer housing sales, and low inflation - ergo - low interest rates - ergo no where safe to put your money - best for us is G-fund, maybe F (for the next 2 weeks, and perhaps much longer).

I suppose it is a good time to buy.....gold....that is.
 
I own 15 ounces of gold coins I bought back in 1980 for fun. They were Grant Woods and Louis Armstrongs - probably more valuable as collectors items at this point. But they surely are pretty and have such a nice feel to them with the weight. They will more than likely end up with my grand children.
 
That's just it Birchtree,

We are not in a Bull Market anymore. I'm putting my neck on the line saying this. But I know it's true.

With all the Fed Intervention and PPT pumps we are still stagnant at best.

I missed the Rally from the major correction but I also knew it was a false pumped rally.

You are probably from what I can figure out in the best position to take these Blows but

look at the news. Do you really think we are still in a Bull market.

And for the record I'm sitting at 1/2 mil.

My DJIA Guess for 2010 is and is stated 9385. We are headed that way.

We will find out probably next week because we are at some pretty critical crossroads.

You are a Virtual Bull that will never know when to avoid these pitfall's and that is the problem that I see with you.

You will Never go to the Garage for Safety.
 
The last six weeks have been trying to plow me under but I'm still up $756K from the March '09 lows - my second $M will not escape my vision. We are still in a bull market and this correction has been painful as well as healthy - no pain no gain. I plan to hold my positions intact rather than cutting for the run at the bottom - many dividends due this month to be reinvested at great prices. I can take the pounding. So I'm light $538K due to this correction and I suspect we have a capitulation bottom and the money will flow back to me over time - how quickly doesn't matter to a long term contrarian investor. I'll wait my turn for riches.
 
Birchtree said:
The last six weeks have been trying to plow me under but I'm still up $756K from the March '09 lows - my second $M will not escape my vision. We are still in a bull market and this correction has been painful as well as healthy - no pain no gain. I plan to hold my positions intact rather than cutting for the run at the bottom - many dividends due this month to be reinvested at great prices. I can take the pounding. So I'm light $538K due to this correction and I suspect we have a capitulation bottom and the money will flow back to me over time - how quickly doesn't matter to a long term contrarian investor. I'll wait my turn for riches.
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That is fine and I ackowledge your choices.

Just remember, 10 years of long term investor decisions where lost with this last major correction.

You rode it down and you rode it up and you are still riding. Your overall value is still less than where we where at 2.X years ago.
 
Actually my long market value is still higher than I was 2 years ago. I do take some profits along the way and those are reinvested. I did some selling in 2010 to the tune of $227K but I have no idea what the profit may be on those transactions. I don't really want any more profits for this year - last year was enough. So I'll keep on riding because I'm sure the bull will return with a vengeful stampede.
 
Birchtree said:
Actually my long market value is still higher than I was 2 years ago. I do take some profits along the way and those are reinvested. I did some selling in 2010 to the tune of $227K but I have no idea what the profit may be on those transactions. I don't really want any more profits for this year - last year was enough. So I'll keep on riding because I'm sure the bull will return with a vengeful stampede.
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This whole MB is geared to peoples TSP Accounts. This is the Biggest Account they own. This is there Retirment. You have rode this the whole way as a Bull and that has not been good for you.

Is your actual TSP Account Higher than where we where 2 years ago ?

I will answer that NO

You are confusing people with what they should do with there TSP Accounts by mixing in your other Accounts and Dividends and so on.

Your hedging your TSP Account with the other assets you own and blatantly making suggestions that are inferior with just the TSP Account member.

The Majority of the people on this MB's most valued asset is there TSP Account and your signal's are Bad. I'm sorry but they are. :sick:
 
Actually my dear fellow my TSP account is larger than it was two years ago - I had the benefit of dollar cost averaging all the way down and all the way back up. My DCAs stopped early this year so now I play the patience game. We all have our own strategies and mine for me is just fine. I just set my daughter up into a Roth 401K and that will be her defined contribution retirement plan. I posted the strategy on WorkFE's thread if you are interested. I post a lot of information just like you do to help folks make some informed decisions - and I firmly believe we are still in a bull market that will have a powerful kick when the time is right. From an earlier post on this thread: "Just when we think nothing good can happen and stocks go nowhere but down, they often surprise on the upside. Having the S&P 500 trade over 1220 seems nearly impossible right now, which makes it more probable than we think." When I return to my previous 10% where will you be? Certainly you haven't forgotten the trip from #1 down to the near bottom being frozen on the lily pad - that's not my style, I'll take my chances in the bull arena.
 
Can you possibly imagine how boring it would be if I discussed only my TSP account. No one is encouraged to follow my lead - I invest for my onw gains and that includes my TSP strategy. Snort.
 
Birchtree said:
Can you possibly imagine how boring it would be if I discussed only my TSP account. No one is encouraged to follow my lead - I invest for my onw gains and that includes my TSP strategy. Snort.
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That's just it Buddy, I do too. SNORT....

Your neutral at best on your TSP Account. I've been doing this to long to not know.

SNORT...:nuts:

I'm just saying you are not trading your TSP Account like you understand the markets... The Tracker reflects this. Snort
 
poolman said:
The Majority of the people on this MB's most valued asset is there TSP Account and your signal's are Bad. I'm sorry but they are. :sick:
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This is my 1st post, I've been a long time lurker and I know a little something about investing. I've been waiting for someone to say this for 2 1/2 yrs. Thank you! Mixing investment strategies between TSP and other investment tools is dangerous.
 
I'm actually trying to be more of a swing trader in my TSP account - only I don't swing in large increments because there is so much money involved. I hope you put that aberant hair back in place - pun intended. You like the lily pad and because of your economic outlook that is right for you - I simply see things differently and react accordingly. I had a similar conversation with JTH a while back about the gains available in TSP accounts due to the biweekly contributions - the shares add up much faster on the lows because you are in buying more often than once a month - that increases the odds of good pricing and good pricing means more shares accumulated. The more shares accumulated the faster the returns add up. I've always had my contributions going into the C fund at max level because of my age. You can buy a lot more C fund shares at $8 than $12 and that's what I know.
 
PCRit,

Fortunately we all know a little something about investing. Welcome to the MB. Say what ever is on your mind - I'm a big boy. I talk about my oceanic account to give folks another perspective regarding investing. TSP is a fiduciary account and is meant as a supplement to other investing funds. I'm showing folks that there are other mechanisms available to make money. If someone doesn't like my style the answer is simple - don't force yourself to read my thoughts or any information I post. One of the benefits of a free media country.
 
FWIW I also manage my wife's defined contribution plan so as a family unit we are very diversified and this creates a three legged frame work. Your real retirement plan is the annuity along with social security. Any outside investments are a further opportunity to make serious money - my oceanic account has 319 individual stocks and is now composed of my sacrificial lamb chop account to protect my base from required margin selling. So perhaps I'm in a little different league when it comes to investing but I'm just trying to do the best I can.
 
Thanks for the welcome Birchtree. No doubt you're investment strategies have done very well for you and your family. Congrats. However, very few TSP folks have enough extra cash to make large investments outside their TSP account. And don't worry, I know when to pick-n-choose between any advice on the MB:D
 
That's why an employee needs time in grade to build their asset base - and the higher prices go the longer it will take to build a substantial base. Most will shift their contributions to the G fund during any serious down turn in the markets - that is absolutely the wrong approach because they then miss the golden potential to accumulate more shares at lower prices. I've never minded giving up some valuations when the market turns against me because I know the valuations will return and I'll be even more to the good. For years its been about accumulation but now that I've arrived at my current level it will be more about capital appreciation and that requires taking risks such as moving into the I fund and staying away from the S fund. That's why I'm buying MEE and BP as a contrarian play with time to play it out. It's all fun and pain as they say and then there's taxes to pay.
 
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