Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

"We don't have to be good at forecasting those gyrations in order to do very well, thank you, in predicting the market's longer-term trend."

http://theguruinvestor.com/2010/05/26/hulbert-two-top-forecasting-models-bullish/#more-4368

 

[Birchtree]

"What started off as a euro-driven decline for equities apperars to be morphing into a stock driven recovery for the single currency."

http://pragcap.com/hopes-rise-for-contained-impact-from-euro-crisis

 

[Steadygain]

"We don't have to be good at forecasting gyrations in order to do very well."

I'd have to disagree with that one Birch.

It is only as we become increasingly better at forecasting gyrations that spring from the deepest and most emcompassing manners that we can know we are where we're meant to be. The mechanics of the movements are empty and meaningless without a total ourpouring that stems from a life that is 'filled and overflowing' - that is deeply happy and content and that has an energy that permeates everthing and soothes and covers every particle of your existence.

You told me that when I was in the 9th grade -- along with telling me to be careful and not to mess up my life and someone else's.

So that's always stuck with me. Thanks man.

 

[fedgolfer]

Buying fear is getting a little easier on this board. Just throw out something silly and the chickens start projecting their greatest fears.

 

[Mcqlives]

OK...back at it now after a month+ long period of tdys and playing catch up. Took it in the shorts at first for not following the markets and lost aboout 8% before I went to G. Did a quick in on Monday (50/50CS) to lose some more until today, I hope.

On to the question for you, Birch and friends, what is this BS I hear about The Pres. not being at the Tomb of The Unknown come Monday? Something about a vacation he had planned? If there is truth to this, the man has no shame at all. Never did I think to see our soldiers and his office dishonored like this.

Have to run now but, to all everywhere that have, do and will serve, God's blessings and...

THANKS!!!

Have a great weekend everyone (mine starts in 15 minutes)

 

[fedgolfer]

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/26/arts/television/26idol.html?src=me&ref=arts

Abandon your view on mankind's progress... Simon is leaving American Idol! This has yet to hit the mainstream. G FUND!!!!!! This is the work of the socialists!

 

[Birchtree]

That's the type of character one builds when affirmative action makes everything easy.

 

[Steadygain]

what is this BS I hear about The Pres. not being at the Tomb of The Unknown come Monday? Something about a vacation he had planned? If there is truth to this, the man has no shame at all. Never did I think to see our soldiers and his office dishonored like this.

Yeah, it's sad. The closer we look and the more we strive to know the details - the worse it gets. The worse part by far is knowing it's not just him --- he's just a piece of the puzzle.

Anyway - have a wonderful weekend !!

 

[Birchtree]

Let's add on that 70 points we lost yesterday in the last 30 minutes and close out above 300 points on the Dow and over 1102 on the SPX - I know it can be done. We are looking at the biggest two year advance in corporate profits since 1998 - the bull has to like those numbers.

 

[eccougar]

BT getting close to the 300 mark, with over 100k in equities, finally a good day.

 

[Warrenlm]

ref the Pres not being at Arlington to present the wreath, I think that's not unusual, remembering other standins in the past. However, I do think the other Pres' were on some official business rather than vacation. I think they had better sense. But I could be misremembering.....

 

[JamesE]

Birch, are you ready to admit crushing defeat by my beloved S fund yet?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^gspc+^dwcpf+efa+agg&d=t

 

[Steadygain]

Oh my gosh Birch !! :nuts:

I just saw how much the Markets actually rose.



I made over $1,000 today -- (new expression for me)

 

[Birchtree]

I'm just saying that if there is one thing about the markets that is a constant it's change. And small caps have seen their day going forward - if one were to get anywhere close to $19.50 again it would be prescient to start moving to other places.

 

[Birchtree]

We may finally get a follow through day tomorrow and that would be healthy, but I'm thinking about my truck load of dividends due in June and it would be great to get these low prices that I had to bleed for to receive. It's only my greed factor kicking in so if the rebound comes with an astonshingly fast big mother V I won't complain. If we drift sideways for the next four weeks it will allow me to catch my breadth - so either way this ole permabull is going to be in the clover.

 

[Birchtree]

"Just when we think nothing good can happen and stocks go nowhere but down, they often surprise on the upside. Having the S&P 500 trade over 1220 seems nearly impossible right now, which makes it more probable than we think."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/16947/technicals-and-fundamentals-could-converge

 

[Birchtree]

"The hardest trade is to buy - but it's the best trade."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37378740

 

[Birchtree]

"When the above warning lights start to flash in tandem, the next recession/bear market will be around the corner and we will switch from 'capital growth' to 'capital preservation' mode."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/16953/blowing-bubbles

 

[Silverbird]

The danger of low interest rates is lenders do not have incentive to lend. More fun and profitable to get into equites, high tech, energy (Enron), commodities...:nuts:

 

[amoeba]

The only thing to worry about is that 1220 may well be the top of a trading range.

Carter II should have the same action as Carter I

Your finger must have slipped; you mean 1,110 perhaps? BTW, birch, can still save a minimum of 5% by bailing to 100% G fund, if today's levels hold. Too bad you didn't do it on that ridiculous bounce yesterday, like I did, since you'll have to waste your first IFT of June on it. Anyway, I thought I'd save you more than a few cents with some common sense.

I see a retest below 1,050 in the next 5-7 sessions. That may be worth putting some chips in, then again, it may go lower ras corepuncher has marked in red on his thread.