Birchtree's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

So Birch,

Do you think GS and the BIG Banks will be weakened ~ or seriously damaged by the US Political clowns

or do you still think it's largely BS? :laugh:

 

[FAB1]

Birch has not written about any positive market news today. Hmmm.

No, but a shot of what Im having right now might do you good...forget.:blink:

 

[Frixxxx]

I moved to safety today. I don't know if I made a wrong move. Usually do when I go to safety. Something is encouraging to me however. Birch has not written about any positive market news today. Hmmm.

He's weeding his grass....Dividends don't pay til June........He will grab his wallflowers tomorrow!

 

[Birchtree]

http://theguruinvestor.com/2010/05/18/winters-short-term-thinking-not-the-way-to-get-rich/

 

[Boghie]

So much fear,
So much loathing...

Time to start getting back into equities

But, I can only do so in <1% increments. I hate the IFT limits. However, this time it may save me

 

[Birchtree]

"If anything, my analysis has only strengthened my oft-stated belief that tremendous profit opportunities still lay ahead. In short, it is still a good time to be an investor - and definitely not the time to abandon ship in anticipation of a renewed bear market." Steady is right, think longer term.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19574.html

 

[crws]

Birch-
What do you make of this: Does a cheap Euro help the I-Fund?

Meanwhile, we're seeing the same overseas. China may be tightening, but its companies' sales are surging. Elsewhere, Korean GDP in the first quarter was 7.8% year-over-year, while Hong Kong imports are up 38.5% annualized and German machinery orders are up 21% this year -- a fact that will be helped by the recent plunge in the euro. As you can see in the chart above, the manufacturers' Purchasing Managers' Index has surged in recent weeks despite the Greek debt fears.

In short, the global economy is probably healthy enough to resist much of the predations of European credit weakness unless the continent's leaders really blow their chance. My expectation is that the recent declines will actually boomerang on credit bears and increase the institutions' appetite for bonds and equities.

http://moneymorning.com/2010/05/17/u.s.-recovery-2/

 

[amoeba]

"If anything, my analysis has only strengthened my oft-stated belief that tremendous profit opportunities still lay ahead. In short, it is still a good time to be an investor - and definitely not the time to abandon ship in anticipation of a renewed bear market." Steady is right, think longer term.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19574.html

Yeah, like you say - those profit opportunities lay ahead. Think long term. Meaning not right now. Meaning later. Meaning trying to sucker you into the market during a cliffdrop. Meaning get the EFF out while the getting is still good. We got another 5% to go minimum.

It's either that or Welcome back to negatorium. Me not like.

Nothin like gaining 50 ranking spots while I'm losing less money than others. Nothin like being crept up on by the G-fund.

This is great. This is fun. Marvelous. Yippee eye cay yeah!!!!

 

[visual]

I am predicting the market will go up next week because I am about to take my lost and move all my money to F fund COB.

 

[Birchtree]

I had anticipated several down days at the beginning of this week - so any further weakness is fine with me. I'm just riding the Ducati up and down with the volatility and holding all my positions. Keeping the base intact will be very beneficial when we turn - the bull is just resting. Lots of dividend reinvestments going to work at lower prices for the long term.

 

[fedgolfer]

... yawn, this will turn right about now. Taking off TZA and buying TNA.

 

[JamesE]

... yawn, this will turn right about now. Taking off TZA and buying TNA.

Dunno bout that, the VIX is over 37 (up 12%) at the moment

 

[FAB1]

I can hear the screams already. Landru!! Help us! Fear not just drink deeply and kiss your TSP goodbye.... No, really somebodys going to buy up this weakness. Theres money to be made I think. haw.

 

[Steadygain]

So Birch, is this the calm before the storm ? :toung:

Or is the storm finally over ?



I think it's time to make a little popcorn and just enjoy it. Starting to feel like a 'drama' ... the plot is thickening ... but it's getting a bit long.


Well have a good one -- I've got a bunch of stuff to catch up on.

 

[fedgolfer]

Birch, does the 1219 double top talk in the SPX start in two weeks or three?

 

[Birchtree]

"This analysis results in an outlook of moderately growth for the financially damaged U.S. economy. While that may sound bad on the surface, it ironically provides for a long sweet spot for market participants - in essence, the so-called 'Goldilocks' outlook. That is an outlook that will encourage and enable new bubbles, which are great in the short term for investors, though they are obviously bad once they run their course and poop." This is from the recent posted article 19574.

I just finished reviewing my sacrificial lamb chop account in case we really drop off the earth. I can take more pain before I have to implement that particular strategy - so bring on the pain. No pain no gain - it's always time to buy when the VIX is high.

 

[Birchtree]

There is a great amount of evidence suggesting that the A/D line will not top simultaneously with price. So the time to be on guard will be when the major market averages make new highs, but the A/D line falls short. The A/D line is not diverting, and its very rare the price will top without A/D divergence. Investors who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a speculator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. We are IMHO in a secular, multi-year bull market and it is just getting started.

 

[Rube]

We are IMHO in a secular, multi-year bull market and it is just getting started.

I sure hope so. I'm all in on stocks and would like to continue contributing for another +/- 10 years, provided I stay healthy.

 

[Steadygain]

I sure hope so. I'm all in on stocks and would like to continue contributing for another +/- 10 years, provided I stay healthy.

Well I'll be darned.

Taking in everything -- and here I mean the Big Picture throughout the years including the Great Depression -- we have experienced numerous periods of very great difficulty and each and every one was met with a Substantial Transition.

YET -- without Failure the 'Hardships Subsided' and somehow the Global Population was able to recover and move on with resilience and strength.

BIRCH - is Right - this is in reality 'the beginning' and not what happened in 3/09. In our present situation -- which was a Global Crisis -- We the United States have dealt with and overcome the very worse and the Companies and Industries which are the Backbone and Foundation of the Markets are gaining strength.

Other Nations - simply are needing some fine tuning and as Europe gets the screws tightened -- we feel the effects which are in reality a sign of Strength and not Weakness.

You will do Excellent 'staying in' especially over the next 5 years. The unemployment rate in the USA is no longer a factor and when things start to fly it's not so much because unemployment will disappear. But STRENGTH will undoubtedly be seen across many sectors and eventually the Smart Money - and the Big Money -- will in fact push the Markets like a rocket going in outer space.

By remaining IN -- you are guaranteed to seize every GAIN along the way. Last years Buy and Holders were the best examples.

GL Man and welcome to what we call 'The World of Birch'

 

[visual]

the futures don't look good for today. Glad I got out yesterday.