Birchtree's Account Talk

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I expect this threads participants to be bullish, but the mood in general here is also. the tracker is alive with buyers...makes me get the feeling somethings coming to try and shake off the risk adverse. Not adding "hope im wrong" as right now in a postion that only those bailing out will open the way to go higher. I also feel sure this is the year for the S fund and the C isnt going to exceed it.just my 2 cents.
 
Whitney Tilson says; "A year ago the market offered investors 'perhaps a once in a lifetime great opportunity' to be aggressive and play offense. And if you had the courage and the cash like Birchtree, it was an all-time great opportunity to make money."

http://theguruinvestor.com
 
Birch, I luv you !!

...and I don't give a rat's ass who knows it.


BTW - You made over $500 dollars today :D:D



Which reminds me -- when I looked in my wallet this morning before work to see if I had enough for a bagel meal ...

...I'm like WOW !! -- where did all this money come from :rolleyes: and then remembered the WorldCom check ;)

Well have a great weekend !!!

and THANKS for listening (and believing me) when I told you the other day to expect the Markets to SOAR. Was about the only time you really did sound like a BEAR.
 
If I hadn't had the fortunate experience of riding previous bull markets I'd be as nervous as our friend amoeba and constantly finding reasons to back up. But I enjoy making money. So we may get a small pullback which will be healthy and over in two days - or it may come on an intraday basis as we've seen.
 
Way to go Birch. You're a regular pathfinder. I think the last week of April will be bullish with just a touch of a bear. My 2 cents.:D
 
After week #59 from the March '09 bottom I'm at $1293K - working my way towards the second $M. I gave myself until week #93 to get the second $M but it might come sooner than that. Be in to win.
 
Boghie said:
Birch,

You have mentioned Ferdinand before...

Is this the chap you are talking about:confused:

Yuk, yuk...

:D
Click to expand...

This is more like it ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGTVRbpAuRo">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGTVRbpAuRo" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="350">

... and I have no idea why it keeps showing two screens.
 
Thanks Anthony I hadn't seen that cartoon since I was a kid. But that is my Ferdinand. Even today he continues to smell the flowers and help me with my investing. Although I buy wall flowers I prefer to smell the superlative bull manure that has been wafting across the MB. This bull market may still be in the beginning stages which means it has a long way to run. I anticipate another good week.
 
I guess there is a high probability we could be looking at another Monday meltup. If that turns out to be the case I've got $56K to spend. As long as mom and pop stay away from this rally the higher we will go. And the higher we go the more I get to spend - and the more I spend the greater the profit potential. If we do rally strong this week my long market value will exceed the $3M mark - now this is getting interesting. There are just so many good things that deserve a chance to flower in my portfolio. I think I've landed in the sweet spot. Snort.
 
Birchtree said:
I guess there is a high probability we could be looking at another Monday meltup. If that turns out to be the case I've got $56K to spend. As long as mom and pop stay away from this rally the higher we will go. And the higher we go the more I get to spend - and the more I spend the greater the profit potential. If we do rally strong this week my long market value will exceed the $3M mark - now this is getting interesting. There are just so many good things that deserve a chance to flower in my portfolio. I think I've landed in the sweet spot. Snort.
Click to expand...

You gotta start wondering what the LibTards are yakking about when yammering about $13 Trillion dollars stolen from investors. Only a goober would take a two year slice and make a stat of it. What are they going to say in a few months.

It sure seems to be coming back, eh...

Money moves...

Wait till the taxman tries to enhance his take :nuts:

That is the only thing that could dump this +30% potential growth in the market.

And, it is a sure thing...
 
Increased taxes are not a for sure deal if there is a turnout and turover in the November elections. The tea party folks are really ramping up for their causes.

The NYAD (Daily) Cumulative is at new all time highs. "The most important feature of the moment is that the trend of both breadth and volume lines confirms the strong rise in prices from the March 2009 lows."

http://[[[financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2010/0423.html

I'm fully prepared to throw all caution to the winds just like I did in the fall of 2008 and proceed to make myself some very serious money from this continuing mega trend secular bull market. I haven't a clue as to where I'll end up but I'm going for the train ride of my generation. With the help of my TSP friends I may get rich.
 
But, Birch,

The taxes are for the children :p

Regretfully, that may be a true statement. If a temporary increase was tied to an equal – and factual – decrease in spending till the till was balanced I would go for it. For example, a 5% across the board tax increase could be tied to a 5% actual spending cut (using FY2007 actual MTS numbers) would bring us to balance rather quickly. However, that ain’t going to happen. Anybody running annual deficits in excess of Bush’s entire term isn’t going to cut a dime. Thus, that administration will NOT get a dime more from me.

Anyway, I'm starting to think that a fair tax increase should target Boomers - rich and poor. Time for them to pay for their benefit demands. Or, maybe, accept that they didn't pay for them - thus, they should get actuarially what they paid for:)

I think that is where the ‘Tea Party’ movement will go…

And, me thinks we gubmint flaks will be a target of their ire…
 
Me thinks the Dow will try to extend the V-train winning streak - its longest stretch in at least six years. "The fact that individual investors are not grossly over allocated to stocks at this point suggests they still have a fair amount of liquidity to invest. As long as liquidity remains favorable stocks should not experience any deep set backs." I had confidence during the downswing and now I have humility on the upswing. That makes for a good temperament for a tried and true investor.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/liquidity-gauge-aaii-asset-allocation-survey
 
The S&P 500 logged a:
12.52% Average Annual Gain and a
11.51% Compound Annual Growth Rate​
during the Worthless One's (President Jimmy Carter) Presidency

However, inflation adjusted those numbers are:
1.70% Average Annual Gain and a
1.05% Compound Annual Growth Rate​
during the Worthless One's (President Jimmy Carter) Presidency

Excellent calculators available at MoneyChimp:

My guess is that President Obama is a functional duplicate of President Carter. Thus, we will have inflation relatively soon (surprising, eh:nuts:), low job growth, and companies/individuals hiding profits/income. I think Carter II will have his wings clipped this November so maybe the economic damage will be restrained. The other forms of damage will be a gift that keeps on giving!!!

Regardless, the potential for stagflation requires full investment. Bonds will simply suck. At least equities hold value to inflation...
 
"If the S&P and Dow can follow the Russell, Nasdaq, NDX, midcaps and banks to new highs, the odds are going to increase dramatically that the market is now in one of these runaway rallies. (Dell Shannon type). It's anyone's guess as to how long one of these moves will last. The rally of 06/07 lasted 7 months. I can tell you that once a market gets drawn into one of these things you can pretty much throw out every trading tool as the mechanics of the rally just roll over any and all trading strategies. Sentiment becomes useless, cycles get stretched to ridiculous lengths, technical analysis and oscillators are worthless." I want my asset bubble.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article18900.html
 
So the top 50 on the tracker are hold up at 70% S fund - now that could be a tell especially from a contrarian perspective. I previously moved 10% G money into the S fund at $18.80 and it's now residing at $19.54 for a quick $0.74 gain. If we get a melt up Monday that would be an opportunity to take 5% of that money back and perhaps another 5% by the end of the week on 4/30. The momentum chasers will have to pay for their sins. I believe I know what the future may hold and I want to be prepared to benefit.
 
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