Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

"Stock Market Crash of 2014." Since the 1960's, the average bull market has lasted about 1000 trading days and the current run up has exhausted less than 27% of that time. If the current bull run lasts 1000 days, it will reach exhaustion after April, 2013."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article18383.html

 

[Birchtree]

"There is geocosmic support for this bull market continuing. Normally one would expect stocks to be bullish with Venus moving into Taurus March 31-April 25. The market is starting to rise in a parabolic fashion, which is a characteristic of financial bubbles." These may be some of the same bubbles that are being shared elsewhere on this MB - nah.

http://mmacycles.com/

 

[Birchtree]

"Interestingly, eight of the ten best performing days for the S&P 500 Index in the last thirty years have occurred since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Many investors made changes to their portfolio's at that time. Those who moved out of equities would have missed out on a substantial amount of upside return in the following six months. It sometimes pays to be patient and dedicated to a long-term, disciplined investment strategy." Time in the market can be more rewarding than timing the market.

http://www.icmarc.org/xp/rc/marketview/chart/

 

[Birchtree]

"Lower tax collections are bullish for stocks. It is interesting to observe that whenever total revenues get down below 17% of GDP, the years which follow tend to be really good ones for stock prices."

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/MCCLELLAN.html

 

[Birchtree]

I sure would like to see the VIX drop into the 16 zone before the day ends. I still plan on moving a 5% position sometime this month into the G fund - probably away from the I fund if I can get a $19.61 price.

 

[Steadygain]

Birch,
I think we're only about 25% away from the Previous all time Highs.

25% -- sounds pretty unremarkable compared to the 60% we've already made since 3/09.

The general bulk seem convinced we are at (or near the TOP). I don't see that. Mergers and Acquistions are very much at play and that is super news for the BULL. The companies like Lockheed Martin ~~ that are most respondsible for the biggest government projects (and where the Greatest Money moves) are working on The BIGGEST projects to date.

So there's a lot of stuff going on ~ that spells enormous success. Factor in an 'economy' that has yet to take traction and END Results are impossible to miss.

The TOP to come will far exceed the previous (which is roughly 25% away). The Corporations and Industries dominating the Future will be far more powerful than the ones of the past. When 'Traction' take place we will most certainly hit a new TOP.

Don't give up Hope --- Birch ---- now's the time to be Bullish.

I'm going to add more to High Risk (and I seriously don't care what anyone else does with their stuff).

 

[Birchtree]

Steady,

I'm glad you see things in a positive light - that makes me feel better and my confidence has improved.

 

[Steadygain]

Right on Bro !! That's what I'm here for.

There's nothing wrong with people being cautious ~~ and it's largely unavoidable to keep from being 'apprehensive' if you're a Player.

But now is the time to gather all the facts:

1. Whenever the Markets go up -- and all the more as we are hitting 'new highs' off the 3/09 lows The overwhelming bulk of posts are going to be BEARISH.

If 99% are Timers -- then they are way more consumed with the thought 'How long can the present rise last' ??

The higher it goes -- the more they are convinced the end is near; and usually expect a substantial drop to follow.

2. We had the Substantial Correction already -- which lasted towards the end of 09 -- until the recent past --

But we have overcome it -- and are moving forward.

Slow and Steady -- Birch -- will add a little at a time. Was too busy this morning -- but will add another 20%

 

[Medic72]

ahhhhh my first cup of Birchtree Juice in a while! mmmm mmmmm good!

 

[Birchtree]

http://pragcap.com/chart-of-the-day-another-panic-ahead

 

[nasa1974]

Hey Birch,
I am close enough that if you hit your brakes to hard I might not be able to stop in time. Give me a little warning OK.

 

[Birchtree]

Buying for my lamb chop portfolio on weakness while it lasts: MEE, PVH, CXG, RKT, ANR.

 

[Birchtree]

This is perfect - but sooner or later they will come. 3,000 points higher would be just right.

"These muted signs are as good as any that 'irrartional exhuberance' is still some distance away for stocks. And while stocks, as measured by the broad S&P 500 index, have rallied 75% since hitting 12-year lows in March 2009, the move has taken place with shell-shocked retail investors largely absent. They shouldn't be expected to return massively anytime soon, either."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/curbed-enthusiasm-for-stocks-2010-04-06

 

[Birchtree]

I've been watching the VIX soften up today - now off 0.51 to 16.51. To try and find out what it means I found the closest rail system and placed my ear on the track - and there it was the sound of hoofs on a slow amble. Something needs to stir them up so the hoofhearted can make some gains today. I think the stampede is on the way and gathering momentum before we close. Be in to win.

 

[meltorment]

I've been watching the VIX soften up today - now off 0.51 to 16.51. To try and find out what it means I found the closest rail system and placed my ear on the track - and there it was the sound of hoofs on a slow amble. Something needs to stir them up so the hoofhearted can make some gains today. I think the stampede is on the way and gathering momentum before we close. Be in to win.

Looking out to June for the VIX, it looks like options are pricing in a move to about 21.

 

[Birchtree]

If that happens I've got some cash to catch a few falling angels - but I think any quick consolidation will hold off until later September and will probably be a 10% correction putting in a bottom for the November elections - and then we rally in a parabolic manner.

 

[Warrenlm]

If that happens I've got some cash to catch a few falling angels - but I think any quick consolidation will hold off until later September and will probably be a 10% correction putting in a bottom for the November elections - and then we rally in a parabolic manner.

You've been moving the month of an expected dip as time as passed. Now, it's moved 3-4 months from the month you originally suggested. You also indicated that no one knows and that's why you're limiting what you moved into G for competitive purposes. Would you share why you're seeing a possible dip keep moving later and is the movement of timing lessening its likelihood in your mind?

 

[JamesE]

Birch, do you think there will be a significant consolidation this summer? I have no plans on getting out of this anytime soon. I know "pigs get slaughtered" but even some minor speed bumps along the way won't deter me from being a pig. Gone are my days not staying informed on the market front. That got me into this mess.

 

[Birchtree]

Honestly, I wish I knew when the hit was coming but really all one can do is to make contingency plans around possible consequences. There are several cycles to be aware of that might provide some unpleasantness or pressure on the market. The 9 month is nesting now and the 2 year will nest in June and the 4 year will nest from August through October if it is not extended. Otherwise it appears all the sellers have gone home. Most of the negative action going forward may remain intraday during the market - somewhat like today. The market needs higher volatility for traders to swing their trades and with the VIX ready to slip below 16 all is quiet on the eastern front - just the scenario for something to come a long and give us all a blindside - maybe only two days worth of trouble so not jumping off too soon would be the correct strategy. It surely keeps things interesting. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

http://pragcap.com/chart-of-the-day-an-83-win-rate