Birchtree's Account Talk

[FAB1]

So when to expect to see the C fund outperform the S funds, Birch?

Not that I doubt that it will. But the timing is cruicial when you have so little (IFTs) to work with.

Today, I would have my money in the S fund.

 

[Birchtree]

I should be out of both the S fund and the I fund by the end of July. I will hold my C fund during any consolidation or deeper correction that may be around the next corner.

 

[FAB1]

Thkns for the tip!

The S certainly turned out to be the loser today.

 

[Steadygain]

I hope ya the best Birch ~~ and I admire your ability to be able to move with the flow ~~ especially since you retired.


Anyway -- it's been awhile and just stopping by to say hi.

Later Bro

 

[JTH]

JTH? - oh yeah he was a bit below me one day. Hes not far ahead though and a nice-sized dip will clip his wings

Rats, looks like I jixed myself. I do believe I'll be in your rear view mirror tonight.

Edit: I'm right on your caboose...

 

[Birchtree]

"Naturally, Bullitt, everyone has the right to believe that the market is going to go in any direction, but based on how we read the charts, it seems that the main stock indices may not top very soon."

http://safehaven.com/article-16276.htm

 

[Birchtree]

"April 1999 was the first and only month for the DJIA to post a gain of 1000 points."

http://[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/pstl/2010/0330.html

 

[merlin]

Birch,

When did you retire? Any way congrats.

 

[Birchtree]

I turned in the keys the first week in February.
"Few firms have been as bullish about the recovery as JP Morgan. And unfortunately for the bears, few firms have had it more spot on at every twist and turn. Their bullishness is only picking up momentum. The economy is much stronger than many presume and the recovery is about to become self sustaining. It is the significant broadenibg in G-3 demand, rather than the pickup in top line growth, that will be the key marker for this transition."
http://pragcap.com/jp-morgan-the-recovery-is-about-to-become-self-sustaining

 

[tsptalk]

I turned in the keys the first week in February.

Congratulations Dennis! I knew it was coming but I must have missed it also.

 

[nnuut]

Congrats Dennis, It's all GOOD!!:laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

This is what's good - making dollars against the wrong consensus.

http://safehaven.com/article-16282.htm

 

[Birchtree]

"Aden Forecast turns bullish on equities and the economy. The chart evidence, they believe, suggests that the great post-1980 bond bull market has finally reversed."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/adens-turn-bullish-on-stocks-economy-2010-04-01

 

[sdouglas3]

"Aden Forecast turns bullish on equities and the economy. The chart evidence, they believe, suggests that the great post-1980 bond bull market has finally reversed."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/adens-turn-bullish-on-stocks-economy-2010-04-01

Is that code word for buy the dips?

Steve

 

[Frixxxx]

Your so sneaky....CONGRATS!!!!!

House the retirement house hunting going????:nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

Summer house hunting - my wife is going to get a promotion and that will slow my exit from Florida a few years but that's ok I'm in no great rush. There will always be property for sale in this economic environment. I'm waiting for the lake place to perhaps come down in price and it will if it doesn't sell over the summer - so that's the sacrifice of waiting. I may lose that opportunity but there are others in this buyers market. This bull market is going to give me plenty of money. The Dow has averaged a gain of 1.94% in April over the last 50 years. The next best month is December with a gain of 1.52%. On Thursday there were over 500 new 52 week highs. 90% of stocks in the SPX are currently trading above their 50-day moving averages. Jan and Feb NFPs were revised upward. There seems to be no evidence of inflation and interest rates are on hold - that could lead to more upside for stocks this year. Monday could be a day to squeeze the short hair bears.

 

[Birchtree]

"This is only the second time in the last 10 weeks that bullish sentiment has been above the historical average of 38.9%. Though many individual investors are hopeful that both the economy and corporate earnings will continue to recover, some investors like Bullitt are concerned that the markets have risen too far, too fast as of late." Not to worry my friends we want fear to dominate those on the sidelines - the bull likes to take as few for the ride as possible.

http://pragcap.com/investor-sentiment-update

 

[Birchtree]

I was going to drop in on Steady's groove pad but didn't want to upset the positive vibrations. I've been relegated to the group "W" bench and I can't find the darn thing - I must have gotten into the wrong hole. Only a few will recognize the group "W" bench at White Hall so I'm safe mentioning it.

 

[JimmyJoe]

The Asian markets went up for the 2nd of April. Will that reflect positive gains for the I fund on Monday?

 

[Birchtree]

I suspect that anything you own right now will participate to the up side - the momentum is strong and is making sidelined cash very nervous for fear of missing the next 80% of gains. I think the fun is just starting and any correction of 10% is months down the road. Now is the time to be long and strong - let the late bloomers push the prices to higher levels. I believe that TSP fund prices will all be at least $1.00 higher by the end of April - but we all know a day of reckoning is out there but I'm staying in front of the train waiting for my blindside hit. I do find that getting run over can be very refreshing at times because the opportunities presented are beneficial to say the least - preparation is the answer.