Birchtree's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Let the bull run.

I've got to admit -- going in 20% gave me the ability to weather the storm that immediately followed....

....but now any good day feels wonderful !!!!


Thanks Birch, and like I said ... the plan is to add more and more




Well good night all

 

[Birchtree]

"Shouldn't this post crash bounce endwhen nobody is expecting it, making a top next month (April) just as unlikely given many will be betting on such an outcome as well..stocks could even remain firm into May. We can speak of the S&P 500 (SPX) reaching trajectories in the 1300 to 1400 range, manic variety, which should blow a few circuit breakers in the brains of the bears. Again, in case you missed it, it's all the money coming out of bonds looking for a new home that will provide the liquidity. And it's the bearish stock market speculators feuling a squeeze higher that will enable such a sequence."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article18261.html

 

[Birchtree]

"Big banks vs regionals: A buy and hold recommendation." My toxic waste financial portfolio of 45 stinky stocks I bought in 2008 is starting to smell much better.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/36086563

 

[Birchtree]

http://pragcap.com/mondays-must-reads-41

 

[Birchtree]

For my MB friends sitting on the side lines - it's a great place to rest.

http://pragcap.com/morgan-stanley-the-rally-is-near-its-end

 

[Birchtree]

http://dshort.com

 

[JTH]

Hmm, believe me I am just happy to be out of the RED. But I guess I should pay more attention to guys like you sneaking up on me and all.

I have rode two big dips DOWN since joining this board, it sucks.
If I had just held S fund since Jan I would be in a much better spot.
It sucks to be wrong, but I can wait for another day.

Hey FAB where'd you go? Oh, there you are (as JTH looks in his rear view mirror.)

 

[turbo23dog]

So Birch, another 5% into G Fund today???? The perenial is Bull moving some off the table...???

 

[JTH]

So Birch, another 5% into G Fund today???? The perenial is Bull moving some off the table...???

He's a "keep it in the closet" swing trader

 

[Warrenlm]

Keep in mind that the first time he moved 5% into G out of S, he moved it back in shortly after. His target is 30% G so the suspense builds.

 

[Birchtree]

The 5% move doesn't take effect until COB 3/31.

 

[Boghie]

The 5% move doesn't take effect until COB 3/31.

Birch, you keep buying and holding the 'G Fund' and you'll be watching my taillights.

I thought I’d never have a chance to pass you.

Then again, I’m scared :nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

There are many G and F folks sitting above the #60 rank - it should be a delightful breeze for Betula papyrifera to make a run for the border.

 

[Boghie]

I've got a lot of G/Fers above me too...
But the folks behind me are all in

You got some Targets of Opportunity above you, but you have snipers movin' in the woods behind you - yuk, yuk...

Too much in the 'G Fund' is slow and loud. Just watch me, I can't get out of my own way. However, a 10% holding should be no problem - and creates a nice cash reserve to invest in a little downturn...

 

[turbo23dog]

However, a 10% holding should be no problem - and creates a nice cash reserve to invest in a little downturn...

That's what I was thinking and followed that logic with IFT COB today.

 

[Birchtree]

Since I'm no longer eligible to participate in dollar cost averaging from payroll I'm doing a little swing trading to boost my bottom line. On 1/12/10 I took 5% off my I fund at $19.05 and on 2/16 I put 10% back at $17.61. Today I am taking 5% off my I fund hopefully at $18.66 or better. My plan is to remove another 5% from the I fund in April if I can get a $19.61 price. The risk is that when no one expects a consolidation is when the blind side hits - right now many are anticipating a give back that may not materialize until much later so I will stay long and strong with only minimal sacrifice.

"A reason to be concerned."

http://safehaven.com/article-16274.htm

 

[FAB1]

Hey FAB where'd you go? Oh, there you are (as JTH looks in his rear view mirror.)

JTH? - oh yeah he was a bit below me one day. Hes not far ahead though and a nice-sized dip will clip his wings

In my personal spreadsheet, I have correctly predicted the last four trading days, generally flat or slight dips/ gains. (youll just have to take my word for it) :toung:

Its my take that we are seeing a market thats just about out of "steam". Mind you I would not be surprised to see a big gains day before weeks end, maybe today...but it will be a last gasp before a downturn. How far down I wont venture, but I am ready to buy back in when the time is ripe and I was hoping for this before the months end as I need new IFTs.

Interesting times, for sure.

 

[Birchtree]

http://theguruinvestor.com/2010/03/30/sonders-remains-optimistic/#more-3945

 

[Birchtree]

http://pragcap.com/ken-fisher-the-bull-market-is-just-beginning

 

[Birchtree]

"Since the February 8th bottom, large caps have rallied 12.5% while small caps have rallied 18%. The divergence in performance has resulted in an unusual and potentially bearish scenario. The ratio of large cap to small cap performance has plummeted in recent weeks to levels that have been seen just twice in the last 5 years." See what might happen.

http://pragcap.com/high-beta-crash