Birchtree's Account Talk

[Frixxxx]

Steady,

You did what you could do.....They'll probably do what most people do and kick themselves in the butt when they realize they could be doing more....

Just this year, I convinced my wife to up her 401K contributions. You should have seen the look on her face when I showed her the tax implications alone.

I contribute the max $ amount per pay period to TSP.

I also contribute 40% (Reserve pay) to Roth IRA!

I max every year now!!!!

Keep preachin brother! Soon the flock will listen!

 

[Birchtree]

Many good folks seem to be running from the nfp report tomorrow - now with the jobless claims coming in down 29,000 the report may be the surprise. I'm keeping my sticky pants on and riding the bull. I noticed that sugar and spice at #119 is moving up rapidly - I wonder if she would object if I drafted her for a few weeks. Market breadth continues to remain bullish as the cumulative advance-decline line for the S&P 500 and the NYSE have now breached their January 2010 highs.

 

[Birchtree]

"The bullish case for equities is best summarized by some of the price action that I am seeing especially in the retail, home building, financial and energy sectors. Leadership provided by these sectors would be the right kind of leadership for a broad market rally."

http://safehaven.com/article-15988.htm

 

[Birchtree]

My small dash of good news today is that Elan options trading jumped to the highest level in four months in U.S. trading surged on buyout speculation. That has the potential for a fistful of dollars.

"Simply said, only traders can lose money in a secular bull market. The only way to lose money in this type of market is to buy high and sell low. And a buy and hold strategy is the only sure fire money maker in a long term bull. The problem with the stock market since 2000 is that there is no longer a fundamental driver to produce a secular bull. We haven't discovered the next 'big thing' yet." How about the prospect of back to back 20% earnings to start the new bull on the road to recovery.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17636.html

 

[anthony]

Many good folks seem to be running from the nfp report tomorrow - now with the jobless claims coming in down 29,000 the report may be the surprise. I'm keeping my sticky pants on and riding the bull. I noticed that sugar and spice at #119 is moving up rapidly - I wonder if she would object if I drafted her for a few weeks. Market breadth continues to remain bullish as the cumulative advance-decline line for the S&P 500 and the NYSE have now breached their January 2010 highs.

I would think a dip back down below 10% would be a good sign and would boost confidence. Am I reading this wrong?

 

[Birchtree]

The sacrifice is in the preparation for a 10% correction - there have been instances in the past where the nesting of the four year cycle has been extended for more than nine months. This type of correction will start slowly and simply takes time to nest for a good bottom - it will provide an opportunity for contrarians to load the boat. The key is to step up and participate when the crowd is headed toward safety. Consolidations are quick and nasty while corrections are slow and methodical and historically create more pain - so preparation is paramount.

 

[Birchtree]

"Perhaps dividends will someday reemerge as a mainstay of investing."

http://dshort.com/

 

[Birchtree]

Alrighty, periscope down and bring that VIX back to 18.55.

 

[Steadygain]

The key is to step up and participate when the crowd is headed toward safety. Consolidations are quick and nasty while corrections are slow and methodical and historically create more pain - so preparation is paramount.

Birch,
I've got to hand it to you --- it's all the more comments like this that seperate the real pros from those only focused on where things are at the moment.

Consolidations are about the only thing meant for IN and OUT

Corrections drag on for months and months -- and that is ultimately what I've been waiting on ... and really almost anything that happens during that time is pretty much a bunch of bull rham...

If the 'correction' is finally ending then the 900 point drop predicted by Corepuncher -- and the super low projected by Uptrend -- will be a fading thought -- exactly as everyone kept saying in 3/09 and the months that followed.

If we could establish an agreement where when I go in 100% - you in turn keep what you have and make small but progressive gains by being 100% in G Fund -- then there is still a good chance I could catch up and even beat you.

Are you open and willing to make such an agreement ??

 

[anthony]

The sacrifice is in the preparation for a 10% correction - there have been instances in the past where the nesting of the four year cycle has been extended for more than nine months. This type of correction will start slowly and simply takes time to nest for a good bottom - it will provide an opportunity for contrarians to load the boat. The key is to step up and participate when the crowd is headed toward safety. Consolidations are quick and nasty while corrections are slow and methodical and historically create more pain - so preparation is paramount.

In my post I was referring to unemployment moving below 10% to 9.8%. 10% seems to have an confidence shaking value associated with double digits. I would think a report of 9.8% would somehow increase confidence and encourage the market.

 

[Birchtree]

As Paris would say "It's hot". The Dow and NYSE are in a dead heat today and the VIX is into the 17 range. Something like 17.59. I should move some S fund today but I'm greedy.

 

[Birchtree]

All I need today is a $17K gain in my oceanic for a $100K week - so far I'm way over. To be or not to be - a contrarian. That's how I function and why I have a black horse imprinted on my chest from being hit by the train so many times over the years.

"How to be a contrarian investor."

http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/wagner/2010/0304.html

 

[Birchtree]

I've been holding myself back from doing much buying this week - just adding up the marbles. However, the closer we get to Dow 10,600 the harder my investment adviser (Mindylou) pushes me toward the bull pen - so I'm anticipating continuing my strategy of buying myself into happiness. Really no sense of holding back when the bull is on a one way ramp up rally that may last the entire month of March. Be in to win.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm hitting so mant targets today my neighbor is probably thinking I'm playing with my quad 50 again. From Lowry's; "Forewarnings of major market tops and subsequent declines have been signaled by sustained patterns of expanding supply and contracting demand. At present, though, there are numerous indications of exactly the opposite process - that is, one of expanding demand and contracting supply."

 

[Birchtree]

Dow up 126 - "That's hot."

 

[anthony]

Birchtree, what's your take on the lagging C Fund?

 

[Birchtree]

I wish I had more C fund DCA purchases - but those days are gone. The C fund will outperform the other funds when the big money decides to play. When the next consolidation arrives the C fund will provide relative performance and the S fund will pay a dear price for its outperformance since the rally started - patience is required. My wife has over 25,000 shares of a 500 type fund in her defined contribution retirement plan and buys more every month. So what's hers is mine I think.

 

[anthony]

I wish I had more C fund DCA purchases - but those days are gone. The C fund will outperform the other funds when the big money decides to play. When the next consolidation arrives the C fund will provide relative performance and the S fund will pay a dear price for its outperformance since the rally started - patience is required.

I guess that's why I'm okay with a fair chunk in the C Fund. Maybe it's not outperforming, but its a hedge against volatility. If I see signs of danger I may move some S to C. Its a move to safety without getting out of equities. I just wish the IFT rules were more permissive.

 

[Birchtree]

"Over the past 140 years, the return from American stocks has almost mirrored the growth in corporate earnings. Given the fact that the most recent secular bear market was similar in magnitude to most of the previous secular bear markets, it is conceivable that it may have ended in March 2009. If it turns out to be true, investors are in for a real treat."

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/saxena/2010/0305.html

 

[joylynn]

"Over the past 140 years, the return from American stocks has almost mirrored the growth in corporate earnings. Given the fact that the most recent secular bear market was similar in magnitude to most of the previous secular bear markets, it is conceivable that it may have ended in March 2009. If it turns out to be true, investors are in for a real treat."

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/saxena/2010/0305.html

Thank you so very much for the above link!

joylynn