Birchtree's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Birch, how come you're avoiding my questions ??

You coward !! :laugh: I bet that's one name you've never been called. :nuts:


Are you retired now ?

 

[Birchtree]

Steady,

Yes, I'm retired. I'm not avoiding any questions just planning to answer at a later time. I've been too busy washing off the day's bulltinky.

 

[McDuck]

Birch,

Just to show how smart that I am. Yesterday COB, I (Mcduck) was ranked 322 out of 327 on the autotracker here. But I think I'll move up about 50 spots today COB.

 

[Steadygain]

Thanks Birch

You sound as good as ever .... so it's hard for me to picture



Man, I just can't imagine what retirement would feel like cause it's so far off ...

Did you realize if you're making 6 figures ... that could mean 999,000


Anyway -- LIFE is good man -- and I hope your health and everything are as good as they sound.

If you need any help fianancing the house -- run the details by Alevie or Silverbird .... cause I need woman that knows her stuff to OK it !

Well have a good night -- and as you can tell -- for now I'm not letting the Markets phase me -- so I enjoy being happy no matter what.

Oooh I forgot -- I noticed Joy Lynn on --- hey want you to know it's rare I can just blow off days like this ... so don't copy me

 

[Birchtree]

The euro is now at a 7 month low against the dollar. I know this makes one doctor happy that has been spending one of his sons through medical school in Spain - yes there is justice in the world.

"Since the start Q3, $473 billion has left money market funds and $264 billion has gone into the bond mutual funds, while $12.5 billion has found its way out of the equity mutual funds. This has just started to reverse. We think inflows into the equity mutual funds should turn positive from here."

http://pragcap.com/mutual-fund-flows-support-a-bullish-thesis

 

[Warrenlm]

I'm reminding myself today it's very important to not get overly pessimistic about the mid term or longer term based on the near term action.

This implies you've allowed some pessimism in. If you're having any doubts we are in big trouble.

 

[Birchtree]

"Based on the stock market's history, there is only a 9.4% chance that the current decline will turn out to be a bear market."

http://tickersense.typepad.com/

Warrenlm,

Now more than ever, you need to maintain constant vigilance in monitoring your portfolio. Nothing wrong in recognizing fear for what fear is - it's not necessary to react to it. Panic attacks like this are part of any recovery process.

 

[Birchtree]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35248521

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35235311

 

[Birchtree]

"Thursday Stock Market Shocker, Not a Normal Retest."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17022.html

 

[Birchtree]

"Temporary Jobs Will Begin the Job Boom".

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35256057

 

[Steadygain]

Birch,
A lot of people are getting nervous .... so I need to talk in code


I think they are 'slow bleeding us' and maybe next week is when we really get gutted and everything falls out.


Hopefully no one besides you will understand what I'm saying.

 

[turbo23dog]

Is this the beginning of the big smackdown, all the way back to 666? If so, I'll suck it up and enjoy buying low. I'm holding in place, having learned from 2009 that you have to be in to win. And odds are that market timing is nearly always a loosing proposition.

 

[Birchtree]

This market might close positive today - it's surely trying. The more fear the better. In June-July 2009 we had a 9.1% pull back in 18 days. At 1060 we are at an 8% pull back in 13 days. In February 2009, bearish sentiment was above 55% as opposed to 43% currently. It was at 70.3% on the March 2009 bottom. So just hold tight until the storm passes.

 

[Nordic]

Is this the beginning of the big smackdown, all the way back to 666? If so, I'll suck it up and enjoy buying low. I'm holding in place, having learned from 2009 that you have to be in to win. And odds are that market timing is nearly always a loosing proposition.

You might have to tighten down that loosing proposition. :blink:

 

[Warrenlm]

CNBC says use weekend to select stocks to buy, let Monday play out, and redeploy capital at the bottom Monday or Tuesday morning.

 

[Steadygain]

This market might close positive today

You can thank Alevie for that

She gave me the right tune and the Markets went with it !!


Anyway -- Birch I actually learned to ignore everything and just be cool with the whole thing.

Thanks man !! You're a good inspiration

 

[anthony]

Birch, I'd say we just tested successfully and bottomed nicely on this correction within a continuing bull. Conditions are in place for the next wave to begin.

I think you read Prechter's material now and then. I posted a read you might enjoy on my thread off of his website, written by Walayat, but with some Elliot Wave material included.

I'm interested to hear your thoughts on their 2010 (and beyond) outlook, which is bullish long.

 

[Birchtree]

Anthony,

I previously posted that article in my thread #7617 - Nadeem has been very prescient since the March lows.

 

[anthony]

Anthony,

I previously posted that article in my thread #7617 - Nadeem has been very prescient since the March lows.

I figured you might have (funny how I just got the email on it yesterday). I also need to review it again.

How does his assessment fit your theory on the possibility of a stronger correction mid-year 2010, which is pushing your 5% reverse DCA method?

He seems to suggest it in one line saying the major 2010 gains may have been made for now. That fits a lot of reading that suggests a relatively flat year, at least for start point to end point comparisons. I think there will be a lot of bumps on the way. I see us at least 5-10% higher at year end when the dust clears.

 

[Birchtree]

We are now set up for a 300 point symmetry move in the Dow come Monday - many lily padders will miss this move. It would be classic. That was a nice 177 point move off today's bottom in less than an hour - I know the power is ready to get back in and force the shorts to cover with good volume. Everything is in place for a big V recovery. The next problem child will act out at the end of June but I suspect it will be a drip drip sort of deal - taking us gently down into the correction 10% or better. This latest bump in the road was a classic hard and fast consolidation perpetrated by the hedge funds - we may have seen the worse at a give back of less than 8%. If I recall the give back in January 2009 was around -8.5%. So I'll continue to try and remain prepared for the correction that will arrive in the June-July period. When a market doesn't do what it should do when it should do it then it may be about to do the exact opposite in a big way.