Birchtree's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
Small traders are still net short - but of course they have been wrong most of all last year.

Bill Miller says; "The outlook for both the stock market and the economy is considerably better than the consensus forecasts. There ought to be strong returns in U.S. equities this year. I don't think that the risks are anywhere near as great as what the consensus believes. I'm very bullish on certain financial stocks, some still have 40% to 50% of upside left in them." I really appreciate that confirmation. I'd like to add to my stable today if we can rally some.
 
"With the substantial drop in the VIX this past week, we're seeing that the market is beginning to believe that it's smooth sailing ahead. You can bet that when the crowd starts to lean to heavily on one side, the likelihood for a reversal increases substantially."

http://safehaven.com/article-15457.htm
 
Get ready for positive earnings surprises - futures are already showing positive. Today was simply a knee-jerk reaction to the Alcoa earnings which are not important - but I'll probably buy some more tomorrow along with GAP.
 
Birchtree said:
Get ready for positive earnings surprises - futures are already showing positive. Today was simply a knee-jerk reaction to the Alcoa earnings which are not important - but I'll probably buy some more tomorrow along with GAP.
Click to expand...

Birch, That was a pretty big knee jerk because Alcoa was a little bit below estimates.
 
Still adding a few lonely wall flowers: GT, CRI, PFE. If I could get the SPX back to 1146 I'd add even a few more - got time yet.
 
Ferdinand is pushing me further and further into the warm pile of bull manure and it's very comfortable and cozy: SO, SIG, JCI, AGO, GCI, CNX, RRI. I did say I wanted to spend some money this week if the market gave me an opportunity. Snort. Perhaps tomorrow will be another good buying opportunity - chasing the bull.
 
Information originally posted by Nordic - I'm thinking we probably take out the 160 month MA on the SPX tomorrow at 1158, adding to long term support. I remember well how life was on October 10th, 2008 when 93% of all stocks traded on the NYSE were making new annual lows and the hoofhearted stepped up and took some large bites. That was a generational move for me and one that has paid off fine. At this point I think is is entirely appropriate to hedge or harvest some partial positions as the VIX heads lower.
 
Good morning Birch,

No offense --- but screw the VIX --- and forget it altogether.

I believe we have some influence over how things turn out and my gut is telling me to focus on a Christmas Song.

The Drummer Boy .... at this moment that is honestly how I feel

So I'm heading over to the Hospital to take care of some admissions

and I've got this Tune Playing over and over in my head .....


Oh He came to me .....pa rum pa pum pum ........


So what's your take on things today ??
 
BT,

I've been contemplating over the last hour whether to ask about adjusting my 37C/60S to move the other way, i.e., weighted more towards C except I don't know if that is against board netiquette.

But then I see above that your suggesting taking some profits off the board with a move to ?? G/F?

If I'm out of order here, feel free to slap my hand. ;)

I really have no aptitude for this stuff and probably ought to use one of the 20 funds ... but what fun would that be? :laugh:

Thanks,

Mark
 
My take is the same as yesterday - I'll be buying some more lonely but lovely wall flowers if the market allows me the opportunity. I'll be away from the market for two weeks so I'm trying to do my buying now - of course I can make contact by phone or another computer but I'll wait - let'er rip as I watch. I'm so deep in the bull manure already I'll soon need straws in my nostrils. Snort. So bring on the dollars and just let'em pile up until I'm ready to spend'em again.
 
So I'm guessing you see this as an undervaluation of stocks if you're buying right now? Aren't you kind of drinking the broker Kool-Aid in buying at these levels Birch?

I like it better when you do your buying when everyone else sees Armageddon.
 
pigeonguy,

I'm still basically a buy and holder with my tugboat account - only moving 5% per month as we move to higher highs - it will take me until June to reach 30%. You can certainly adjust your position but it will cost you an IFT - I'm more heavily weighted toward the C fund as this bull moves forward and will eliminate my S fund and I fund positions by June. When the correction come I'll absorb the pain and then put the 30% back to work - how much I may leave on the table is the questionable sacrifice. No one knows where the intermediate term top may reside - we may actually not get one all year if we follow 1995 or have several if we follow 2004.
 
Bullitt,

As some have recently suggested the true bull market started at 10,000 Dow. If this is correct then we have a very, very long way to go to reach a top which could be years away. Everything I buy today will be more expensive next month and the month after that. Now we'll have to rebuild Haiti which means more of everything - material stocks should benefit. Time to buy more construction stocks too. When money starts to move out of bonds I'll have a few wall flowers that have bloomed into roses to sell them - afterall I am a capitalist. I bought Armageddon but that was yesteryear and now I have to buy the sunlight and chase Ferdinand through the lush green fields - and you would do well to feel the fear of perhaps missing wave 3 to the upside. Hesitation will only get more expensive.
 
Birchtree said:
My take is the same as yesterday -

I'm so deep in the bull manure already I'll soon need straws in my nostrils. Snort.
Click to expand...

I'm thrilled to hear this Birch !!
(BTW -- along with your other posts)

In all sincereity -- it all comes down to Money :D:D

I could care less if it's Dumb or Smart -- as long as it comes :cool:



Since you'll be gone for a few weeks; I thought about you a lot last night. I'm back in The Unit -- Birch -- so will talk with ya later and fill ya in ---- hopefully before you take off.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk AutoTracker Insights: TSP Investors Lock in Gains
Replies
1
Views
744
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
Problem with IFTs on Monday morning
Replies
3
Views
379
FireWeatherMet
FireWeatherMet
tsptalk
  • Article Article
The winning streak finally ends as stocks dip to start the week
Replies
0
Views
200
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
Stocks continue to act well despite some obstacles
Replies
0
Views
92
tsptalk
tsptalk
J
TSP beneficiary question
2
Replies
26
Views
1K
evilanne
evilanne
Back
Top