Birchtree's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

because it may be very explosive.

Well Birch -- I'm closing down for today but 'explosive' is no excuse for staining your underwear at 2:00pm today ...

in my book it's the same as crapping your pants

That's why I made $852K in 32 weeks off the March 9th bottom.

Then I am not going to help pay the cost for you to fly out to Buzz's wedding

I will no longer continue paying for every tip

And I will not keep offering to fill the car with gas.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

We are going to drive to Virginia and Mindylou is going along for the ride. After the wedding we are going to cross North Carolina and go look at some lake land around Lake Glenville and then after a few days head down to Lake Keowee around Seneca, South Carolina - it's only about 30 miles down off the mountain. I actually prefer the Blue Ridge and a place called Chinquapin is just lovely. The broker associate tells me they have been reducing prices. There won't be any leaves on the trees so the views should be excellent. The pricing around Lake Keowee is more moderate with plenty of real estate available but it is more crowded and still humid in the summer. We'll see if money talks. If I select a spot on Lake Keowee I may also have to acquire a summer place that allows me to purchase ten weeks up in Sylva, NC. which is back up on the mountain. There are ten cottages that can be owned by 40 families.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Evidence reported in this research article, as well as elsewhere, shows that the returns that are measured by the in and out decisions of investors are significantly less than those achieved by either buy and hold investors, or, those minority of investors who tend to adopt an opposite (contrarian) type of strategy."

http://safehaven.com/article-14901.htm

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

We are going to drive to Virginia and Mindylou is going along for the ride. After the wedding we are going to cross North Carolina and go look at some lake land around Lake Glenville and then after a few days head down to Lake Keowee around Seneca, South Carolina - it's only about 30 miles down off the mountain. I actually prefer the Blue Ridge and a place called Chinquapin is just lovely. The broker associate tells me they have been reducing prices. There won't be any leaves on the trees so the views should be excellent. The pricing around Lake Keowee is more moderate with plenty of real estate available but it is more crowded and still humid in the summer. We'll see if money talks. If I select a spot on Lake Keowee I may also have to acquire a summer place that allows me to purchase ten weeks up in Sylva, NC. which is back up on the mountain. There are ten cottages that can be owned by 40 families.

It all sounds wonderful Birch -- it really does.

To me it doesn't matter so much what our level of comfort is during the 'Golden Years' - but way more deals with the fact that the struggles and strains and hardships of the past are no longer things we need to contend with.

It is way more that we can at last take time to smell the roses and enjoy all that life has to offer. When Mindylou becomes more the ultimate 'cuddle bug' -- you'll find qualities that go even beyond the Financial Advisor. I know it's hard to believe but it's true.

Soak it all in Birch and never stop soaking because there is no way possible anyone can take in the full measure of all life has to offer.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It is noteworthy that the VIX has surged 48.3% during the past eight trading sessions to its highest level since early July. This fear gauge is used as a contrary indicator as it moves inversely to equity prices. Be sure to read the Jeffery Saut article that Coolhand was kind enough to post. No fear here or there.

 

[fedgolfer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

BT, you think this is a short term bottom? Not that it is a factor in your strategy at all. I have trader tendencies but I've been trying to wear my investor hat more since this IFT limitation. some days its hard to reconcile those conflicting emotions though.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The number of NYSE stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages has dropped to 34.7% from 91.6% in September. Inorder to be bullish about the secondary trend, one would expect the majority of stocks to be above the 50-day line. For a primary uptrend to be intact, the bulk of the index constituents also need to trade above their 200 - day averages. This is a slow indicator, with the number still at a lofty 85.9% but down from its recent peak of 93.4%."

http://safehaven.com/article-14898.htm

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It is noteworthy that the VIX has surged 48.3% during the past eight trading sessions to its highest level since early July. This fear gauge is used as a contrary indicator as it moves inversely to equity prices. Be sure to read the Jeffery Saut article that Coolhand was kind enough to post. No fear here or there.

Birch,
It's bad enough that Uptrend's System put out the 'Buy Signal'

No offense -- but the only way you're going to get Number 1 on the AT -- is by telling everyone just the opposite....


Think of it Birch -- the day you say SELL -- everyone is going to flee for their lives...:worried:

Wait a few months ... and innocently say 'False Alarm'

That will make you #1 - Birch - you'll be in the history books...

be offered millions to publish a book and all kinds of stuff

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I would be terribly grateful if the VIX does not force me to move the tugboat until later December or even into March 2010. I really don't want to do it but as a contrarian it will be necessary to side step that 10 - 15% correction.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"All in all this is suggestive of a downtrend towards 9,400 into mid November with a year end rally to back above 10,000 targeting a rally high in the region of 10,350 to 10,500 during December."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14695.html

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Whenever the VIX hits extreme levels like 32 it not only signals fear but is consistent with market bottoms. Extreme highs on the VIX are generally bullish and current levels qualify as extreme.

 

[JTH]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Whenever the VIX hits extreme levels like 32 it not only signals fear but is consistent with market bottoms. Extreme highs on the VIX are generally bullish and current levels qualify as extreme.

We've already put in a higher swing high, so it depends on where the next swing low is established.

You have to go back to Sep 08 to find a lower swing low than the 20 Oct 20.10 we put in last month.

But really, I care nothing for the vix, it's more media hype designed to induce panic selling to the public...

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"All in all this is suggestive of a downtrend towards 9,400 into mid November with a year end rally to back above 10,000 targeting a rally high in the region of 10,350 to 10,500 during December."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14695.html

Well whatever ....

.... I feel like the Captain of the greatest ship ever built

.......... and it's just not in me to leave until everyone else has gone

.................. I have to be the last Birch .....cause that's how I'm made




Just checked the AT for the first time in ages....

last I looked I was 17% ..... now am down to 8%

when I'm down to -28% I'll know it's time to let go


I'll be the last man standing........

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The global emphasis is important, but you don't have to go overseas, the S&P 500 companies are doing it for us."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33585147

As a reference, highs for the VIX held at 23.80 in 2006, at 18.59 in 2005, at 22.59 in 2004 and 34.69 in 2003. The value of 32 is an extreme and the market should be bought. The NYSE may close positive today.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Just one year after every national economy on earth was in deep trouble, a powerful global rebound is underway, in fact, the global upswing is a lot stronger than most investors realize. So don't let a few days' decline here and there cause you to lose sight of one of the most important investing trends investors will find today."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14706.html

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I do believe the recent panic attack is over until the next one arrives - these attacks are part of any recovery process. Every major market top in Lowry's 76 year history has been preceded by a sustained rise in selling pressure. With selling pressure recording a new 12 month low within the past two weeks, no such rise is now evident. The key level to watch on the SPX is 1070 - if we can hold it for a week then 1200 is next. We are now trading above the SPX 50-day (1052) at 1055. Brian Wesbury says the V shaped recovery will last 2 years.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The Fed staff forcast core inflation to slow somewhat further over the next two years from the pace of the first half of 2009. The core inflation rate of the first half of 2009 was 1.8%. The inflation rental indexes may now be the next domino to drop. A year over year decline in those indexes would significantly increase the risk of zero percent core inflation or outright deflation. Rates will not be going up - just what the market likes.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It is noteworthy that the VIX has surged 48.3% during the past eight trading sessions to its highest level since early July.

Whenever the VIX hits extreme levels like 32 it not only signals fear but is consistent with market bottoms. Extreme highs on the VIX are generally bullish and current levels qualify as extreme.

Birch,
In all sincereity -- this way more supports my view on the ability of Politics or Governments to manipulate things and that alone was the basis of my decison to stay 'fully invested'.

It was like yesterday -- when Tom and others are going on and on about the VIX being near 20 (or some horrifically bad number) and wondering if you are 'seriously ready to bail'.

Given the circumstances that the USA has been facing in the recent past (which is actually the present) - and looking for anything to honestly validate the huge jump in the VIX.

Do you think it's an accurate reflection that things have really substantially improved ?? Or does it more represent the power of Political Forces to manipulate the VIX?

To me it doesn't make any difference and I seriously could care less whether it is 'false manipulation' - or 'real improvement' - The only thing that really matters from my perspective is being fully invested when a sustained Market Surge is underway.

I guess I'm learning more and more to look at 'Politics' and ignore everything else....

but I could be wrong

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I did a little buying this morning: ABK, ACI, BTH, BTU, BW, CNH. And I may return to the market after the Fed speaks.

 

[fedgolfer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

... yeah, the Fed and Treasury and G20 didn't create this asset/equity reinflation bubble to have it pop this early in the recovery. If Benny hints at raising rates in the next several quarters, he's an idiot and we should all run for the hills. Anyway, I don't think he's that stupid so anytime we're in the red or in the lower bowels of the the trend, it is a great time to buy -- until this dollar thing reverses. FAS after the gap up, appears to be in a falling wedge that intersects at 1pm'ish right around the 2 day support trendline... financials may rocket up from there and the ABK bet looks good for a B&H... thanks Birch.