Birchtree's Account Talk

[fedgolfer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

... buy buy Peter Schiff, your gold trade is in the beginning steps of bifurcating the bearish $ trade thanks to the GDP rpt. Equities... numero uno.

 

[fedgolfer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

... buy buy Peter Schiff, your gold trade is in the beginning steps of bifurcating the bearish $ trade thanks to the GDP rpt. Equities... numero uno.

oops... meant bye bye... gotta watch out since the spelling and grammar police are out in full effect.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

Now I understand - the $25,000 will earn a very small return and one reason I decided to let it slide for now.

Thanks Birch, as I misunderstood you as well. I thought you meant you had to pay $25K purely in fees for service - and didn't realize that itself would be an investment bringing any return.

I took it as 'free HBO' and 'free indoor pool' - 'free wireless' but you pay $240 a day for the room that provides this stuff.

But having an extra free 360 trades during a year is tasty especially the way I accumulate my positions.

Well when I set up an account 'we'll work on that'

Can you imagine throwing $25K at a stock and pay no fee.

I can now.

So a $7 hit is really only a small aggravation.

It's night and day compared to the fees I paid for both buying and selling

Today has presented me with some excellent prices and if we continue to consolidate the prices will only get more tasty. I always look at these drops as golden opportunities.

I need you to keep those skills razor sharp -- and always be at the ready -- because only you know when the timing is right.

I mean I could spend $100K on a stock and it would only cost $7.

That's just incredible!!

Kind of makes me feel like going back to all these guys that got incredibly rich off all my trades and letting them know that I now realize I was majorly ripped off -- but it's water under the bridge and I'm over it. But I could at least give them a 'dirty look'.

What a deal to assume some risks - no pain means no gain.

Or perhaps the gain has it's greatest meaning or pleasure after going through a long painful experience.

For instance did I ever tell you about my experiences beginning around 10/07 -- and how that all changed in 3/09??

 

[fedgolfer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

yesterday's close on the s&p out of the rising wedge looks like nothing more than a bear-trap... when the s&p pulled back up near resistance you could feel the shorts lining up and then getting squeezed now that is settled back into the channel. Support line redrawn.

When are you putting those recently sold shares back to work... I know you're not afraid of buying on big green days.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Back to making a few buys on the high: TDF, TLAB, TLM, TWC, UGI, T, GT.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Knocking 3.15 off the VIX (24.76) is way too much at one time. I don't want the 20 level until late December. I am aware that if everyone around you is nervous and excited and you are calm and collected it could be because you don't understand the situation. But there's always the possibility that the crowd is wrong, so judicious buying at times like these could prove to be rewarding. An SPX of 1200 is not unrealistic within a month should banks really rebound further like today.

I wrote these thoughts some time last year and will once again repeat them. This is a once in a life time opportunity for valuations, for all financials. That's why I bought 45 of them last fall. When we look back historically, we will be thinking about the irrational panic of 2007 and 2008. The real secret to being, or becoming, an intelligent investor is bolstering your self-control. Pains taking investors - literally, those who can take the pain of a bear market that seems to drop another 1% everyday - will ultimately triumph, by patiently amassing greater and greater equity positions at better and better prices. An intelligent investor hopes things do get worse. This allows me to buy more shares more cheaply before the bounce back. If you are still in your saving and investing years, a bear market is a gift from the financial gods - and the longer it lasts, the better off you will be. Instead of running from the bear, you should embrace him. Does that make sense. I plan to be back on my game tomorrow buying myself into happiness. Snort.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birch -- I'm just wondering ????

When you travel around in the private suites with several Scandianavian beauties coming in to give you a massage...

that doesn't bother your wife ???

and why do you always have 2 work on you at the same time??


Anyway -- sometimes I wonder about things and as I'm heading home thought I'd throw that out.......

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"As the saying goes - when the VIX is high it's time to buy. The market has had an amazing rally so far this year and I feel we will have a solid year end rally going into Christmas."

http://safehaven.com/article-14862.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The yield on 10 year government bonds is 3.5%, while prospective yield on blue chips over the next year is 3.8%. This is only the third time this has happened since 1945 and each time it marked the beginning of a great bull market. Already we're seeing a revision of earnings momentum that is turning around - a huge development in my opinion.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The SPX at 1037 is still only a 5.8% pullback - although today does feel like a wipeout. I back tracked a little and sold: ANF, HAL, PVH, AIT, ASH for a total of $61,925 and I have no idea how much profit is in there yet. So far during this correction I have unloaded $192,839 for a cost of $105. I suspect the total profit so far is close to $60K which aint bad. This is all emotion today in the market and I'm raising cash so I can move rapidly forward when November arrives. If the hedges don't buy these golden prices they are lame. At any rate I will get the opportunity to buy everything back at a later date. When you invest the way I do you have to remain tolerant of foolishness. Snort.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

You are 100% correct.
This is THIS October, not LAST October.

I don't really understand the 'all in'/'all out' folks. Even now, this market is in a general up line. Right now, I have a foot on each side. I don't know when the market will make a violent (but wonderful) turn around to growth. My guess is soon, very soon. I want to catch some of it while reducing some of the losses. Hopefully, the growth will be slow and sustained.

Do you have an opinion on where the economy will reach statis? The point where boom or bust stop and normal market behaviour takes hold.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

A leading economist from a large bank is predicting a Q1 GDP of 2010 at 4.5%. The preliminary report of 3.5% could easily be revised upward and Q4 could hit the 4% range. I'm just going to ride through this volatility and stay prepared to take opportunity of these golden prices. November could be explosive to the upside. We could take back 100 points before we close. I'm looking for the exports to help the Q4. And now with the VIX back to 31.20 +6.30 - it's serious buying time again. We'll see if the hedge funds dare to step up and show some spine.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

And here I've been worried the VIX at the 20 level would force me to shift some assets - well I'm still worried that will happen before the year ends. This is just another pause that refreshes with the equities following the dollar - but this is about to change. Perhaps we are at a pivot point for the dollar and the market historically goes up when the dollar goes up. Get ready for the bull dip buyers that recognize an opportunity and golden prices.

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm just going to ride through this volatility and stay prepared to take opportunity of these golden prices.

Birch,

One time on "The Simpsons", there was a segment where Homer buys futures/derivatives in January for next year's pumpkin crop. He starts to get excited when the price goes up during the summer. Then he is 100% bullish during September and October. Then in November when the prices goes down some, he is sure that it is only a minor pullback and buys more. By January all of his pumpkin futures are worthless.

I would buy/send you that DVD set if I could remember what season that it was on.

Have a great weekend,
McD

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I wrote something like this awhile back when the Dow was at 9410.29 and the SPX was at 1017.12 - in a true bull market, we often see the RSI's turn back up right where they are now, in the 30's or under. It would be extremely bearish if the market loses those 50 day exponential moving averages across the board. So far we are not seeing that but only selectively. It's a healthy pullback and that's all.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Does this correction bother me - only slightly. I still have 317 stocks that I'll be dollar cost averaging into sooner rather than later. Maybe I can collect one more C fund price in the $11 range at the end of next week - but I'm really doubtful. These lows won't hold for long because we are in a bull market. As I like to say keep in mind that the role of a bull market is to keep you out all the way up until the top. Now I'm going to sit down and figure out what my profit level is off of $193K in sales. I'm now at 613 purchases and 15 sales - so I'm basically holding my base. You have to accumulate, accumulate and accumulate to build a strong base to make money.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch -- you're like a lighthouse in bad weather


Thanks man -- I know I can always come here for a 'booster'



The part that bothers me the most is feeling 'wrong' when so many others look 'right'.

It's not that I lost anything .... but ending the week with those who fled saying 'I told you'


Now it's like too late because if we have a really great week next week.... they're not stuck anymore...

Thanks Birch --- you're a 'good counselor' and I feel better now

Have a good weekend !!

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Stead,
The moods are just reversed. As this market tumbles those that have been on the sidelines are granted some relief for not being in. Those that are in are paying their dues. When you get out determines how much you are willing to pay.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Anyone that is now on the lily pad will stay there even if we get a 1000 point week next week - they'll simply think it's a genuine head fake. Classical market analysis usually places the line of demarcation at 10%. Anything less is a pullback, anything more is a correction. Inorder to catch a big move up off this current bottom you must be pre-positioned for the move because it may be very explosive. That's why I made $852K in 32 weeks off the March 9th bottom. So now I've given some back for the last two weeks - but it's happened before and always moving forward with even greater gains. The bull is only resting giving the courageous another chance to prove their worth.

 

[Boghie]

Is Anyone Really Right Around Here...

Birch,

I am with you. I think we will see 1200 before we see 1000 in the S&P. That is saying something after today and Wednesday. From S&P 1200 onward I don't know how much growth there will be. There has to be a discount for pending tax increases, 'enhanced' regulation, and potential deflation.

The market seemed to be a trading market rather than an investing market during the last half of this month. I had two IFTs so I gambled to minimize risk rather than gamble to enjoy potential benefit. But, this market will find an equilibrium - and that equilibrium will not be at 66% of the high (or, -34%). That seems to be too much of a discount. I hope for slow and measured gain after this pullback. That will let me jump in with next month’s IFTs.

When will this market become an environment conducive for investing rather than trading? It’s slowly moving that way – but then bang and it gets all volatile again. For no real reason. I wistfully daydream of the years I spent not trading my TSP account.


Steady,

Those that do not believe in the market or in the ability of America to survive stupid political and economic tricks will stay on the sidelines. They will yak about gold and oil and head fakes and Obamanomics and the greed of bankers and da boyz and… All those problems are real, but a 34% discount to our economic vitality is way, way overblown. This is a pull back. The ‘All Outers’ will lap it up and explain away growth till the market hits 1200. Then they will start jumping in. Belief in the market keeps me in the market. This recent downturn will just give me more growth and make my contributions more valuable!

My guess is that 1250 is about where BTs VIX 20 will be – yuk, yuk…

Birch will then become a swinger…

Retire at 55!!!