Birchtree's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

What makes you say that SteadyG?

Hi Tom,
I said that in essence throw some COLD WATER on everyone's face.... and get everyone's attention -- as many are prone to kind of drift over the posts... and get a little sleepy.

Don't scare me. There are only a few things we can count on in life - the sun will rise each morning in the east, and Birchtree will be bullish.

I have to admit --- I think Nuclear Bombs will go off and other things along that magnitude

BEFORE BIRCH BALS TO G FUND :nuts:

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

There are many times when you are lucid and perspicuous and then there are those times when you are facetious and endearing.

Birch - In Boot Camp my Drill told us 'You have to BS some of the time or you'll go crazy'



Thought that was one of the Best Statements I've ever heard...

but you can only do that with a few 'Special Friends'

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Friends I'm still at 65C/20S/15I with no plans to change in the immediate future unless the VIX takes a swan dive to below the 20 level.

SentimenTrader.com posted some very interesting historical data that surprised me. When breath is as volatile as it has been, this close to a new high, you'd expect it could be the sign of a top. But the data suggested otherwise.

A lot of the prior occurrences were from many years ago (like the 40's) but the market actually did extremely well going out 6 months under these circumstances. But interestingly, a bear market was around the corner nearly every time, after that 6-month blast off.

 

[fedgolfer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

SentimenTrader.com posted some very interesting historical data that surprised me. When breath is as volatile as it has been, this close to a new high, you'd expect it could be the sign of a top. But the data suggested otherwise.

A lot of the prior occurrences were from many years ago (like the 40's) but the market actually did extremely well going out 6 months. But interestingly, a bear market was around the corner after that 6-month blast off.

if these intermediate bull move patterns hold in the trans and QQQQ, around here looks to be the lows before we bust through the top of the V pattern on the level trendline dating back to Nov of 2008... the start of the V or inverse h&s or whatever the hip term of the week is.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The Rydex market timer, as a representative sample of investors, was buying yesterday's sell off."

http://safehaven.com/article-14845.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The market subsurface is in very good shape, as evidenced by the performance of the advance/decline line. The number of 52 week highs has recently hit their highest level since June 2007. The A/D line is not diverting, and it's very rare the price will top without A/D divergence. Usually most up cycle finishes are marked with a four-six month divergence between a top in the A/D line and major indexes. That is, the A/D line has typically been declining half a year before a final top in the major indexes is made. So a top is likely at least four to six months away.

Something from Dan Sullivan who says: "over the years, we have found that the ideal environment is one in which the S&P 500 records a limited number of trading sessions in which it gains 2% or more. During the prior bull market from 3/12/03 to 10/9/07, the SPX posted an impressive 94% gain, and yet on only 13 occasions did it manage to gain 2% or more in a single session." I guess the slow road is the better option - slow and deliberate.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The market subsurface is in very good shape

the slow road is the better option - slow and deliberate.

Birch - my unshakable rock solid brother and friend

It's rare you'll ever get an appology from me ... but I'm sorry my post this morning offended you

At the time I made that post -- I could invision people:

sitting on the toilet dropping their laptops...

gulps of coffee spaying out ... people coughing ...

stomachs 'gripping' in fear ...

and numerous other senarios --

and that part of me is pretty hard to control. :embarrest:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

No way was I offended - I knew what you were up to. Bullish tonality is still prevalent.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

http://theguruinvestor.com

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

We are now down 5 days out of the last 6 trading days for the SPX and very oversold. I'm anticipating possibly a sharp recovery rally that may run right back up to 1100 or better. I'm waiting for the breakout of the bearish wedge pattern. Will oil save me tomorrow. I still would not be surprised if the SPX does a parabolic blast off to 1300 in the next two months caused by all the liquidity that is sidelined - of course everyone is waiting on the hedge funds to lead the way - cowards that they are. If the GDP comes in stronger than 4% - stand back from the thrust wave.

 

[JTH]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I still would not be surprised if the SPX does a parabolic blast off to 1300 in the next two months caused by all the liquidity that is sidelined - of course everyone is waiting on the hedge funds to lead the way - cowards that they are. If the GDP comes in stronger than 4% - stand back from the thrust wave.

This is the fundamental reason I'm still in this market...

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The average percentage loss of the last seven pullbacks has been around 5.8% - some more some less. If the pullback follows the historical norm we could be looking at an SPX bottom around 1037 - that would mean 26 more points to the down side. I don't think we'll see it - voting for 1137 before 1037.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If the GDP comes in stronger than 4% - stand back from the thrust wave.

I expect GDP to be around 4.5 which should provide us some relief from this pull back. Although that may be short lived. Housing #'s should be better than expected also which may sustain us through this week. If you are going to bail, these next 2 days is the opportunity.

 

[Geaux4it]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I expect GDP to be around 4.5 which should provide us some relief from this pull back. Although that may be short lived. Housing #'s should be better than expected also which may sustain us through this week. If you are going to bail, these next 2 days is the opportunity.

I did see this morning on Bloom that new mortgage apps are down ~12.4%

Also, remember the market is not reacting to positive news like it was recently. GDP and housing numbers may also get shunned in favor of the bear raid.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well Birch --- the PLAYER is wondering if this is a 'correction' in a Upward Trend.

So I'll check out the TSP site and see what happens.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well Birch --- the PLAYER is wondering if this is a 'correction' in a Upward Trend.


So I'll check out the TSP site and see what happens.

Well I'll be darned .....

as Alice Cooper would say
'These things they say are TRUE' :nuts:

'We're all humanary stew :worried:

if we don't pay alligence to The Black Widow'

Anyway - was able to get to 'Account Balance' and amazingly enough I'm still doing great. So 'No Big Deal'

Well according to the Black Widow theory -- this is all a conspiracy designed by the Top Banking Officials and the Heads of Government to pester the TSP MBers....

Well I got news for them -- at this point I'm immune to their tactics because staying put is no big deal.

Later Birch -- another day --- another dollar

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I decided to back up a little more on the oceanic account because the NYSE is so weak. I liquidated my AP and GRA positions to raise some profits. Trying not to be overly aggressive because I know this is temporary. Will buy all these shares back in 30 days. But nabbing a few profits doesn't hurt anything until I have to pay the taxes. As far as the tugboat goes I'm positioned right where I want to be and the C fund pricing is about right also.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Since June 26th I've made 606 individual stock purchases on a DCA basis and have now made 7 sales with a cost of $35. My total sales so far have come to $96,482 of which perhaps $34K is profit. So we are now negative for October on the indexes and we may actually get a little worse before we turn - but when we do turn I'm a buyer with my recent cash. SPX of 1037 should be the low but I doubt we get there.

 

[JTH]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Since June 26th I've made 606 individual stock purchases on a DCA basis and have now made 7 sales with a cost of $35. My total sales so far have come to $96,482 of which perhaps $34K is profit. So we are now negative for October on the indexes and we may actually get a little worse before we turn - but when we do turn I'm a buyer with my recent cash. SPX of 1037 should be the low but I doubt we get there.

I'm with you, in fact I'm planning on doing some research this weekend. There are going to be some great buys setting up and I'm looking for some red-tag sales...

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Since June 26th I've made 606 individual stock purchases on a DCA basis and have now made 7 sales with a cost of $35.

Birch - The other accounts you manage ~ if you put the accounts in your name ~ can you do essentially the same thing at that kind of cost?

I simply can't imagine trading $96,500 for such a trivial amount.