Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
I think you should bail to G Fund

mainly to flip everyone out :D:D


Man it's weird being in the 2nd Level ... you still feel like a loser no matter how much you have..

but then again that's something you can't relate too.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

These numbers are high enough to give Ferdinand a case of priapism. All the market wants now is an excuse to move higher. If we make new highs for this year on the ratio adjusted NYAD during this current sequence the sky is the limit. A bullish cycle of a larger degree is in play along with the first quadrant of a new 4 year cycle - look for a move to the upside to as high as SPXS 1153.00. This oinker is sitting tight until I see the whites of their eyes at the VIX level of 20. I want to do some buying later today but I may wait until tomorrow.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
These numbers are high enough to give Ferdinand a case of priapism. All the market wants now is an excuse to move higher. If we make new highs for this year on the ratio adjusted NYAD during this current sequence the sky is the limit. A bullish cycle of a larger degree is in play along with the first quadrant of a new 4 year cycle - look for a move to the upside to as high as SPXS 1153.00. This oinker is sitting tight until I see the whites of their eyes at the VIX level of 20. I want to do some buying later today but I may wait until tomorrow.
Click to expand...


Hey Birch,

The market got an excuse alright, but it wasn't to go higher. What the heck happened??????
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp...&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=INDEXSP:.INX&ntsp=0

There is a lot of focus on short to medium term. I keep looking at the very long term (for example S&P500 since 1970). In the linked graph, from about 1995 on growth trends seemed to diverge drastically as well as overcorrect stronger when compared to the previous decades. Look at the difference in slope prior to 1995. I personally believe that it represents a point where the fundamental of how business is done started to really change moving towards internet and email based methods.

So let's take 1995 as a starting point, and use the 2002/2003 lows as a basis for an ultraconservative linear growth trendline. Just eyeballing, I see the ballpark of 1100 for today. I am purposely ignoring the more recent low, because I believe it was a much bigger kneejerk reaction. I am also a believer that the new way of business we have built, makes us more prone to quickly executre transactions and provides wild swings, and compared to 2002/2003, this round got far more press as a depression and kicked in the panic factor even on "John Q not so regular or even mindful Investor". So yes I am throwing it out in this analysis because I beleive it is not a reliable datapoint.

Now then, looking there, long term sense seems to tell me that we are getting close to a fairly pessimistic support level. So the real question is how optimistic are we for the future? Well, interest rates are low, goverment is throwing money around, and businesses have been reshaping for profitability. I think we could hover here a little as the engine gets going, but I think in the end the forced adaptations of this last year to become more efficient will be what ultimately drive the way forward.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birch --- :confused::confused: --- what the hell ???

It's weird when you're not around !!

Later dude ...

... and tell Mindy Lou I long to cradle her in my arms and whisper sweet little nothings in her ears ... wind her up like a motor and make her purrrrrr so loud .... you'll need ear plugs..:toung::laugh:
 
I Just Can't Handle It...

Bich,

Time to panic!!!
Run fast for the hills!!!
Watch for Ferny's Turds!!!

:laugh:

Yeah, I'll use my final IFT to bail from equities.
After losing a horrific 3.5% or so.
I could have made .03%.
Or, maybe even .3%

Then again,
Not quite.

Got to be in to not be picking Alpo Flavors in my Golden Years. Personally, I'll hold for a 5% - 10% correction - then bail. There is no reason for a market change right now. And, I don't want to be in the 'G Fund' when the big boys play their games at the margin...:p
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"If the market has correctly priced the start of the coming recovery then the recovery is expected to be very strong and lasting. If that is the case, stocks will continue to rally for many months and likely years as earnings pick up; and there will be lots of opportunity for investment. In the bull and bear market debate, the early signs of an economic recovery provide a solid foundation for further expansion of stock market prices."

http://[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/wagner/2009/0924.html
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Oscar's predicting today, Friday, as the second big down day and next week as going up again. Elsewhere Steady said you told him to "hang on" which he now understands to mean you were telling him the market was going down (apparently briefly). Are you planning buys today? Is this looking like a good day to sell more G and buy more equities?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Warrenlm said:
Oscar's predicting today, Friday, as the second big down day and next week as going up again. Elsewhere Steady said you told him to "hang on" which he now understands to mean you were telling him the market was going down (apparently briefly). Are you planning buys today? Is this looking like a good day to sell more G and buy more equities?
Click to expand...

Anytime Steady mentions something about Birch -- it's only with the deepest respect and knowing we have a great deal in common. Please know 90% of my comments 'connected to him' would never be expressed if I didn't fully believe he could take it in the deeper genuine light it was meant to be taken - which is usually 'in fun'.

If Birch ever says 'HOLD TIGHT' - it is always in association with him being the Number ONE 'PERMABULL' - and I know exactly what he's saying...:D:D... but sometimes I just have a little fun.

If you knew Birch you would never ask him about G Fund in general as that is a Fund you'd never catch him connected with.

PEACE MAN - AND THANKS FOR NOTICING
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birch :o

I know I came on pretty strong the other day and I need to say this more for the General MB (and hopefully not for you) but still it came out of left field and you probably weren't expecting it.

When it comes to politics (at least and most definately in regards to WAR) and Social Services...

You see me on ONE EXTREME - someone who wants to dilute everyone down to nothing and I guess the ultimate Socialist...

of course that's far from the truth ~~~ but for argument's sake I'll gladly start from ONE EXTREME

So in turn I've got you on the OTHER EXTREME ....

This way when things get riled up and everyone is going crazy we can say all things fall somewhere between the 2 of us.

If I did offend you 'I'm sorry' --- and even if our worlds are totally at opposite extremes I'm not out to bash ya
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Kumbaya, lets have a love fest.
Atleast over on this thread they are not talking about losers and ignore list.:D
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birchtree

Been on the site for about 4 months and following your lead. I read your messages/comments everyday. You think it's a pullback, correction or is the rally winding down? Been in the I fund for about 4 months and its looking good.

Thanks for all you good info man!

Hangin in there! :cheesy::D
I Fund
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

It looks like we are going to continue our stair step move to the upside. So most set backs, though healthy, are only temporary. I made an offering to the bull this week of $73K from my oceanic account - that ruins my chance of $1M by week #30. I'm now at $753K for week #29 off the March lows. I'll just have to wait a few more weeks. I did get a nice $12.31 price on the C fund - not too many of those left I'm afraid. Next week should be back to bullish movements. I'm staying right where I am until that VIX takes out the 20 level - that'll be the time to duck for cover. Until then enjoy a little rain. Snort.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
It looks like we are going to continue our stair step move to the upside. So most set backs, though healthy, are only temporary. I made an offering to the bull this week of $73K from my oceanic account - that ruins my chance of $1M by week #30. I'm now at $753K for week #29 off the March lows. I'll just have to wait a few more weeks. I did get a nice $12.31 price on the C fund - not too many of those left I'm afraid. Next week should be back to bullish movements. I'm staying right where I am until that VIX takes out the 20 level - that'll be the time to duck for cover. Until then enjoy a little rain. Snort.
Click to expand...

Hope you are right...
Seems that the mood has changed, but I don't expect a free fall. Maybe a day or two more of small losses. But after that a big boom.

Anyway, I have noticed a number of comments regarding C Fund prices that don't seem to map to the Fed paydays. Do you get paid weekly. That would be very nice for contributions. Very nice. :)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm buying on the high today - is there any other way. Taking back what we gave up in three down days with a positive one day upside. That stinks like a bull market should. Today I bought: EBF, FFG, ADC, AES, BVF, MOT, CLP, DIN, BBG, BK. Boghie, many agencies pay on different dates so as not to swamp the system - only every two weeks for civilians and monthly for military.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
I'm buying on the high today - is there any other way. Taking back what we gave up in three down days with a positive one day upside. That stinks like a bull market should. Today I bought: EBF, FFG, ADC, AES, BVF, MOT, CLP, DIN, BBG, BK. Boghie, many agencies pay on different dates so as not to swamp the system - only every two weeks for civilians and monthly for military.
Click to expand...

Its become obvious Birch...

The Illuminati One World Order Types set your pay day (contribution day :)) to maximize your gain...

The rich get richer, me just pokes along :p
 
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