Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"In my view, a likely intermediate term scenario is that the market may soon advance in a parabolic manner - an advance at an accelerating rate - before it undergoes its first significant correction since March. The reason I see this as likely is the consistency and lack of any significant correction since the March bottom. Such a steady uptrend without a much awaited for correction is a perfect motivator for 'panic buying'. Optimistic markets can stay optimistic for a long time. Remember 2003 to 2007? We may be into a year to multi-year bull market. It would be wise to look for the next asset bubble that will drive the next sustained bull market and consider that there is every reason to believe that this next bubble will be the stock market itself. Yes, we had a stock market bubble in the late 1990's, but today on Wall Street, people have short memories."

http://financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm by Martin Goldberg 9/17/09

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've made $105K in three days in my oceanic account and probably gave back around $4K today. If I can add to or hold the line tomorrow I'll have my second ever $100K week and will be in like Flint. I could end up deep into the $800K for week 28 off the March lows. I'm still planning on the $1M by the end of week 30. Buy early and buy often in a new bull market. Yes my hoofhearted friends we are in for the greatest bull market of the decade and I plan to make millions of dollars along the way. I want my Maypo.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"October 2007 was the last time that anyone saw New Highs of 340 or better. Back then, the S&P 500 was at 1576. Yesterday, the New Highs were at 340 and the S&P 500 was at 1068 - a full 508 points lower."

http://www.stocktiming.com/Thursday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

 

[Medic72]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

BT for Sec of the Tres

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Amazing that the Dow was 3250 points lower six months ago and yours truly has caught every blessed point on the upside. The bull market is 6 months old. The average cyclical bull market - or bull that follows an economic recovery - has lasted 43 months and gained 130%, so history may indicate this rally has more room to zoom. Ken Fisher says; "It's a V shaped rally and only 50% done and will last another six months." The 13 month MA of the SPX defines delineation of bull market and bear market - and appears to be coming in at 1095. It looks like I'll be buying today.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Amazing that the Dow was 3250 points lower six months ago and yours truly has caught every blessed point on the upside.

That is a nice run B. But think how well you'd be doing if you didn't catch all of the 8000 point drop. It's probably tough to do one without the other, but look at someone like Trader Fred who has picked up half of this year's C fund gains while only losing 2% in 2008. It can be done. I can't seem to do it even when I have the answers in front of me , but it can be done.

 

[Scrappy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I was one of the 40% losers in 2008.......that loss is what prompted my research to try and determine if it could have been avoided that resulted in my finding this great MB.

In my VHO, it so far seems that making money on a roulette wheel could just as easily be accomplished as trying to "conquer" the TSP or market with an investment "system".

:nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've decided to take the investment day off and will not be doing any purchases today - there is plenty of time in the future. If we rocket higher later today I may change my mind because I enjoy buying on the highs simply because I own so many that were bought on the lower ranges. Today I'll just coast and be complacent.

 

[mayday]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've decided to take the investment day off and will not be doing any purchases today - there is plenty of time in the future. If we rocket higher later today I may change my mind because I enjoy buying on the highs simply because I own so many that were bought on the lower ranges. Today I'll just coast and be complacent.

Taking a sabbatical Birch?

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've decided to take the investment day off and will not be doing any purchases today - there is plenty of time in the future. If we rocket higher later today I may change my mind because I enjoy buying on the highs simply because I own so many that were bought on the lower ranges. Today I'll just coast and be complacent.

Sounds like an excellent idea !!

That will help me 'chill out' (not worrying about things) - so I'll head over and take care of the 4 or so that came in last night.

Have a good one Birch --- oh and BTW

BHO KMA would be a nice bumper sticker - :laugh::laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

There is no rest for the wicked. This market is dragging me in deeper - I know how all these managers on the sidelines might feel. Today I bought: KEY, RRI, GT, UBS, ABB, WGO, JAH, ANN, KBH. I'm out of breath chasing this thing but I am a greedy pig and have mostly been patient. If we break 9900 I'll be back with more jewels.

 

[Heroic]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It's certainly been a fun week, and next week looks fun too. All the history discussions I read talk about September as being a tough month, with people and portfolio managers selling for tax reasons. The TSP talk chart showing average returns by day in september supports that it can be a tough month. But this seems like anything but a normal year.

I remember reading once about trends like "sell in may and walk away" which builds on the advice of buy and hold from October to May then sell. I could not find the artice but I thought I read last may an analysis about the exceptions to this rule being during bearish markets. Whatever the case, it seems like this current market will be a strong exception to that rhyme.

Looking to next week, I'm still reading about the treasury issuing what 112M in treasuries. Seems like the U.S. gov has been buying treasuries that they sell lately (i.e. inflation), though some others still buy, but either way it puts more money into the economy. Many of the articles I have read during this bull run talk about the U.S. government flow of money into the market as being the true sustaining driver of the bull run. Decent theory I guess.

Next week also should look at new and existing housing markets I'm betting on this being simliar to cash for clunkers (i.e. exceed government and market expectations). Free money is a big motivator in this country. Wish I could have gotten in on the $8k credit. I was one of the poor saps in that small window at first who in good faith to pay it back, took the $7500 credit in December. If I had waited 1 month......no payback and an extra $500. But, hindsight is 20/20.

However, there is also talk of legislation to extend the housing credit (some even talking of increasing it to 15K, and others reducing it after the current one ends. Either way, it seems to me that the smart person looking for a house right now would delay using the credit till close to the end of this calendar year. Why? Save more money for the downpayment, quicker reciept of the money as it's closer to tax time, and better chance of seeing if the gov will offer something better still. I think the impact may be rearloaded, but I still think the influence of free money always gets underestimated in this country.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I remember reading once about trends like "sell in may and walk away" which builds on the advice of buy and hold from October to May then sell. I could not find the artice but I thought I read last may an analysis about the exceptions to this rule being during bearish markets.

There are lots of "Sell in May and go away" articles out there. It has proven to be a good long term strategy, but it can be painful when it doesn't work. How long can someone follow while it is wrong? Like I said, there can be a long painful dry spells.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

That was a nice post - welcome to the MB and drop in anytime. October has the potential to be overwhelmingly faster paced than September. I'm a rider on the storm.

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Sell in May and go away"

How many followers can follow a method before it's wrong? Only so many folks can lean to one side of the boat.

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

In my VHO, it so far seems that making money on a roulette wheel could just as easily be accomplished as trying to "conquer" the TSP or market with an investment "system".

You're not alone. Perhaps you've read these already?

Random Walk on Wall Street

Fooled by Randomness

 

[dannyboy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I was one of the 40% losers in 2008.......that loss is what prompted my research to try and determine if it could have been avoided that resulted in my finding this great MB.

:embarrest:
Do not feel left out at all, I gambled, riverboat gambler, and won then lost then lost,lost,lost. Then, I parked in the G arage.
I was a regular on the MB, that whole time and i was about the same, give or take a couple dozen or so.
DB

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Why not just go all in and let this thing ride. Because you can get your head handed to you. What most are now forgetting because things are so frothy is that when this does snap, you will be shocked by how hard the market gets hit. That may be days or many weeks away but when it occurs, look out. Not until we're cleanly through that 1080 SPX number can you say we've been successful at taking out this immense gap."

http://safehaven.com/article-14510.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Bull Market Rules Still Apply"

http://[[[financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2009/0918.html

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well I turned up short on the week again - I made only $89K. It was the small caps that ruined the party. However, one must go forward. So I have high hopes for another week to put me over ther top. At the end of week #28 from the March lows the oceanic account has pulled in $826K - that leaves me two more weeks to drill the $1M. I think in the very near future I'll pay off another credit card.