Birchtree's Account Talk

[mayday]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

cayman,

It was good to have you drop by and it's always good to have your perspective. I'm still working on my second ever $100K in a week and I will never be able to make $300K in ten minutes - that's way, way out of my league. But I'll keep making progress in my own way. But I do plan to tap the $5M number before this new bull market is finished.

"This usually means a bullish cycle of a larger degree is in play. If that is the case here, and 1053.00 is decisively exceeded, we would be looking for more upside to as high as 1153.00."

http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1252648860.php

Birch: When do you think the next market bubble is smelt?

I think my sphincter is gaining a little pressure.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I told someone yesterday that the market top will be on 9/10/2012 at an SPX of 2706 - that's as accurate as I can predict. We may never see a 10% correction until then. At least the VIX is giving me a little breathing room today.

 

[mayday]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I told someone yesterday that the market top will be on 9/10/2012 at an SPX of 2706 - that's as accurate as I can predict. We may never see a 10% correction until then. At least the VIX is giving me a little breathing room today.

Thanx for your insight Birch but my bubble just bust.

My breathing room must be evacuated.

My serious thoughts must have dissipated on this subject.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I told someone yesterday that the market top will be on 9/10/2012 at an SPX of 2706.

Oh, great. Right before the world comes to an end on December 21, 2012. You'll have 3 months to party.

Doomsday

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

mayday,

I'm a believer in this bull rally simply being a continuation of the 1982 mega trend secular bull market which could mean we have a three to five year move in front of us. A bear market rally would be over in about eighteen months. Either way one must buy early and often - if we rally in the last hour I will pick up a few more lonely wall flowers. Snort.

 

[mayday]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

mayday,

I'm a believer in this bull rally simply being a continuation of the 1982 mega trend secular bull market which could mean we have a three to five year move in front of us. A bear market rally would be over in about eighteen months. Either way one must buy early and often - if we rally in the last hour I will pick up a few more lonely wall flowers. Snort.

Birch: I like what I'm seeing and where I am positioned.

I'll wait till 4 to have my snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Unless and until such weakness developes, the medium and near-term uptrends remain intact and dominant and project still higher prices towards 1100-1120."

http://safehaven.com/article-14456.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

http://safehaven.com/article-14457.htm No hints on this one - it's a surprise.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well shucks, I only took in $96K this week, but I've faced disappointment many times before. Perhaps next week we run through the SPX 1060 gap resistance and then I'll make my goal. At least I didn't have to overpay on the C fund this week at $12.28. The problem is that I'm running short on my time left to continue doing my DCAs - I'm hanging up the white lab coat in January. It's a done deal and then I become a swing trader - ready to push the dollars to the max. I did take in 20 dividends this week and expect about the same number next week. I also anticipate finishing up my current buy list and then moving on to the next one - buy'em early and often in a bull market. So far I've made 440 individual purchases and don't plan to stop until I run out of available buying power which may not happen anytime soon. When the correction arrives it will probably force me to back up a little but that will be par for the game. I don't want to take any unnecessary profits until sometime into next year.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've been reading so many bullish articles today that I'm getting nervous as a renegade contrarian. But then I come across something like this: A 50%-plus rally in the SPX index in six months, the first since 1933. The longer the rally continues, the greater the pain of not being invested. And there may be more pain to come. I'm going to hold tight until the VIX gives me the signal to shift my tugboat - otherwise I'm a prolific buyer of stocks.

 

[Handballer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, you are still The Man. Thanks for your insight. Are you still holding AIG and C? I got spooked this week and sold half my positions. I'm thinking of buying them back.

Well shucks, I only took in $96K this week, but I've faced disappointment many times before. Perhaps next week we run through the SPX 1060 gap resistance and then I'll make my goal. At least I didn't have to overpay on the C fund this week at $12.28. The problem is that I'm running short on my time left to continue doing my DCAs - I'm hanging up the white lab coat in January. It's a done deal and then I become a swing trader - ready to push the dollars to the max. I did take in 20 dividends this week and expect about the same number next week. I also anticipate finishing up my current buy list and then moving on to the next one - buy'em early and often in a bull market. So far I've made 440 individual purchases and don't plan to stop until I run out of available buying power which may not happen anytime soon. When the correction arrives it will probably force me to back up a little but that will be par for the game. I don't want to take any unnecessary profits until sometime into next year.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I still own AIG and C. We could be early in the new bull market. The equity market resembles 1975-1982, when the S&P 500 doubled. We are in I believe the greatest bull market of the decade. Hedge fund money still seems bearish but then again big money does not mean smart money. They will eventually capitulate to the bullish side and when they do the largest short squeeze I've been waiting on will transpire. It could also be historic. Today looks to be weak - but could recover.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Last week the NY Composite RA-AD line (ratio adjusted) went through compression resistance with ease. Nicely above the 1959 RA-AD support line. This does suggest that the next few weeks will continue to beneit the bulls. Both the 10% Trend (19 day EMA) and the 5% Trend (39 day EMA) are above the 1959 support line - a beautiful picture with longevity.

 

[fedgolfer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

Tire trade tariffs didn't scare you off your bullish position? You're crazy

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The only thing that will get me nervous is when the VIX drops through the 20 level - then I know everyone is in deep. The tire issue is sending my GT (Goodyear Tire) higher.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Just completed a few nibbles - do we rally in the last hour? Bought: TWIN, MOT, TLM, GBX, MTW, BDK. If we do break out I'll do a few more completing my list.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well shucks, I only took in $96K this week, but I've faced disappointment many times before. Perhaps next week we run through the SPX 1060 gap resistance and then I'll make my goal. At least I didn't have to overpay on the C fund this week at $12.28. The problem is that I'm running short on my time left to continue doing my DCAs - I'm hanging up the white lab coat in January. It's a done deal and then I become a swing trader - ready to push the dollars to the max. I did take in 20 dividends this week and expect about the same number next week. I also anticipate finishing up my current buy list and then moving on to the next one - buy'em early and often in a bull market. So far I've made 440 individual purchases and don't plan to stop until I run out of available buying power which may not happen anytime soon. When the correction arrives it will probably force me to back up a little but that will be par for the game. I don't want to take any unnecessary profits until sometime into next year.

I hate to admit this Birch, but I thought you said 'Swing Dancer' - not 'Swing Trader'.

That would have been quite a change.

Actually, 'Swing Trader' seems a bit of a change of profession as well

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I need to make $263K in the next three weeks to achieve my goal of $1M in thirty weeks off the March bottom - I think that will work. The technical breakouts will keep on coming. I would like to pull in $1.5M by week #35. Watching that VIX slowly come down - now at 23.82.

 

[alevin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm running short on my time left to continue doing my DCAs - I'm hanging up the white lab coat in January. It's a done deal and then I become a swing trader - ready to push the dollars to the max. I don't want to take any unnecessary profits until sometime into next year.

Wow Birch, nobody reacted to your retirement announcement. I'm astonished. Did you bump it forward due to market rewards? thought you weren't going out for another 2-4 years yet.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
I've made a point of avoiding your home, Squale's home, and Alevie's home during the recent past. I guess you could say I'm a sick man and it's beyond my control. I get too emotionally attached and it's weird but I can't help it and as strange as it sounds I would rather die than be someone else.

Yesterday the dentist made a mold of my upper and lower teeth and said my mouth is shaped like a woman's. :cheesy: I felt good about that because I thought maybe some of my Mom's wonderful genes are part of my makeup.

Well anyway I'm honestly striving to stick with only TSP at this point and not cross the line anywhere. Buster had mentioned his upcoming 'Retirement Celebration' - - and we thought if you knew what Lake you're going to build your home that he would bring the Monk Robes along with the other stuff and I'd buy or rent the glass bottom boat and we'd go out and celebrate.

You are the last person (other than my real brother) I would have any concern about when it comes to Retirement. You are living proof that long range 'sound investments' are the best guarantee to a long, happy, and properous retirement. I think it's wonderful you're starting off while your health is good and 'our sweet little Buzz' is starting her own family.

Take time to smell the flowers my friend; shut out the garbage and really come to know life in it's fullest and most overflowing manner.

Steady