Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

"As history clearly shows, the stock market tends to close at or very near its high for the year in most 10-year cycle peak years. The implication is for stocks to enjoy a strong fourth quarter this year in spite of widespread fears of another bear market to begin."

http://safehaven.com/article-14270.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The way w see it, those who were pessimistic about stocks and the economy early this year are going through the classic five stages of grief. First, they denied a recovery was going to happen anytime soon. Then they lashed out with anger at those who spotted signs of the recovery. Now, they are bargaining, admitting the existence of the recovery that they did not see coming, but belittling it. Next, as things keep moving up, we can expect them to get depressed. (We got some of them around here). We don't expect acceptance to fully set in until late next year. The good news today, is that the next inverted yield curve is probably years away. Consequently, it would most likely take a true "black swan" to derail the current bull market anytime soon.

Ritholtz, who told Tech Ticker in early March we were in for a monster rally, has 1050-1080 as an upside target for the S&P 500, with a slight chance it can go as high as 1200. If the rally does extend to those outer limits, Ritholtz sees the Dow topping out somewhere around 12,000. After one big down day on Monday and a gap lower on Wednesday, this weeks AAII surveyed showed that the percentage of bullish respondents declined from 51.0% down to 34.1% for its largest one-week decline since January. (you can thank Ferdinand for that)."

http://safehaven.com/article-14272.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Holy mackeral Andy you mean you made $684K in the last 24 weeks off the March bottom. That has gotta mean somebody is doing something right - right? What do you mean they ain't seen nothin yet? We're shooting for $1M and beyond by week #30. Man, can that be possible - hang around and find out.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

A catapult breakout - boy that sure turns me on. We have a nice bottoms above bottoms trend line going all the way back to October on the NYSE breadth MCO with another new breadth thrust above the zero line. Yup, Bullitt was right on that one. The NYSE breadth MCSUM has now curled back up to 1302.42 after finding support on the multiyear bull line and this index is headed higher. Any corrections going forward will be mild. The TICK is at new all time highs and the money flow real positive. I haven't seen a graph yet of the ratio adjusted NYAD line but I know it has to be nicely above the 1959 resistance line. What I can see is buckets of bear blood pouring into the street starting Monday - it will be like a pagan religious ceremony.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

My investing fantasy for the coming week is to make $100K and to spend $50K. I'll worry about September when it gets here. I can always take up spelunking like some of our more infamous doom and gloomers have done recently. Until then my expectation is to buy early and buy often during this new bull market.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
All though it pushes out from your VIX 20 line, what is your take on the Market and the VIX trending in the same direction this morning?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Going in early but being careful in case we whipsaw - if we explode I'm prepared to return. Bought so far today: ARM, CSE, CX, FOE, EXP, SNV, STN, SSD, ODC, MWV. I'm as nervous as a cat on a hot tin roof but will continue to move forward as long as my courage holds up.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

One of the magnificent nine buy ans hold I funders has finally broken ranks - vectorman just reduced his position to 50C and 50I. Just a point of interest.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Welcome back mayday - all information input is appreciated. Today was one of those days where I spent more money than I made - only $1K more. If life were fair this market would continue its' one way stampede ramp-up rally until the end of the month - that would allow me to clear my list. Then it may obediently trend sideways for September so I can invest my boat load of dividends - I've got something working almost every day and that will keep me satisfied until October. I've got 48 stock buys I would like to squeeze in before I can really rest. All this buying is hard work but I'm slowly pushing my way to the $1M mark. There is a reason a bull was blessed with four legs.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

There is a reason a bull was blessed with four legs.

Yeah, so he can out run me when I'm looking for an easy T-BONE dinner:D
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
Welcome back mayday - all information input is appreciated. Today was one of those days where I spent more money than I made - only $1K more. If life were fair this market would continue its' one way stampede ramp-up rally until the end of the month - that would allow me to clear my list. Then it may obediently trend sideways for September so I can invest my boat load of dividends - I've got something working almost every day and that will keep me satisfied until October. I've got 48 stock buys I would like to squeeze in before I can really rest. All this buying is hard work but I'm slowly pushing my way to the $1M mark. There is a reason a bull was blessed with four legs.
Click to expand...

I don't have a million but at least I'm not punching a clock anymore, and I'm out of debt. Now what to do with all my winnings?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The Market 'Melt-Up' Continues. We've just seen the most rapid 50% recovery in the S&P 500 since its inception. The market is being 'reliquified', as wave after wave of money from the sidelines continues to pour into the stock market. Furthermore, as the U.S. dollar declines, some companies (mainly exporters) are helped, while U.S. investors are enjoying a powerful 'tailwind' in their foreign stock holdings."

http://www.navellier.com/commentary/weekly_marketmail.aspx
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
"The Market 'Melt-Up' Continues. We've just seen the most rapid 50% recovery in the S&P 500 since its inception. The market is being 'reliquified', as wave after wave of money from the sidelines continues to pour into the stock market. Furthermore, as the U.S. dollar declines, some companies (mainly exporters) are helped, while U.S. investors are enjoying a powerful 'tailwind' in their foreign stock holdings."

http://www.navellier.com/commentary/weekly_marketmail.aspx
Click to expand...

Sounds like gold is where you want to put your cash
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Ultimately the only thing that matters is the simple fact that the stock market is in a cyclical bull market right now. It is trading above its long-term moving averages and those moving averages are now pointing up while sector after sector in the market is going from a stage one base into a stage two bull market. Almost everything is making higher highs and high lows now. The lesson is in cyclical bull markets you shouldn't be afraid of the bull market until there are real signs that the bull market is over. And there isn't a single sign I can point out to you that says this right now. In bear markets you shouldn't be trying to guess bottoms and in bull markets you shouldn't obsess over tops. I believe buying individual stocks will continue to be the best way to make money in the market."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article12971.html
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
"Ultimately the only thing that matters is the simple fact that the stock market is in a cyclical bull market right now. It is trading above its long-term moving averages and those moving averages are now pointing up while sector after sector in the market is going from a stage one base into a stage two bull market. Almost everything is making higher highs and high lows now. The lesson is in cyclical bull markets you shouldn't be afraid of the bull market until there are real signs that the bull market is over. And there isn't a single sign I can point out to you that says this right now. In bear markets you shouldn't be trying to guess bottoms and in bull markets you shouldn't obsess over tops. I believe buying individual stocks will continue to be the best way to make money in the market."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article12971.html
Click to expand...

In that same article:

"You make money by staying aligned with the dominant market trend and paying attention to people who are doing that too. Now it is very tough to pick exact tops and bottoms, but to make a lot of money in the stock market you don't have to do that. Nor do you have to be right all of the time. You just have to adjust at some point when things change and stay with the trend as long as you can when you are right."
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just finished my morning stock purchases: STI, NL, AIN, GE, DHI, MLI, LII, CNX, SPN, FFG. We ran up to 105 points on the Dow and now have backed off to 39 points - did I buy on the high. Well I did the same thing yesterday. But today the VIX is starting to cooperate a little. The VIX is not breaking down just yet and therefore isn't indicating that it's time to get too bullish with the markets yet. This fits my strategy. I wish I could just go boom and buy everything on my list at once - but I'm trying to remain prudent. It will eventually cost more but that is my willing sacrifice. I would hope for an opportunity to step back into the market later if this rally holds on the highs.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm reminded of the graphs that I posted (#6379) - sure got me chomping on the bit again. I think I'll have some lunch and then I may go gett'em. We have members taking in family and I'm doing the same with my lonely wall flowers. They all become family and I'll nurture them until they flourish.
 
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