Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well we are certainly looking at the potential for a blastoff before a bust. John Paulson has attracted some attention that has the hedge funds stirred up - the catalyst is forming for a panic buying stampede. We have the wall of worry and big money knows they are missing the boat everyday the market refuses to correct. I'm just a simple accumulator of stocks. Accumulators make their money in bear markets and bull markets by staying disciplined. Buy early and buy often. The trick is to buy through out a bear market for the long term rate of return. And now I'm doing the same thing in a new bull market. Long live DCA. Remember it takes courage to be a pig.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Now that the VIX has once again dropped below 25 should send a strong message that some type of normalcy has returned to the markets and investors should start feeling a little more comfortable and confident about the future. The VIX tends to move inversely with the markets.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just finished watching Elaine Garzarelli on Kudlow. She has been my idol for years and I know I should subscribe to her service. Perhaps I will later on. She would be worth every dollar. Snort.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just finished watching Elaine Garzarelli on Kudlow. She has been my idol for years and I know I should subscribe to her service. Perhaps I will later on. She would be worth every dollar. Snort.

What could any new service do to affect your strategy?
Just looking for more confirmation from another bull?

 

[caymanbrac12]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streettalk/short_sellers_bear_rally/2009/08/12/246970.html

cayman

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Good Morning Cayman

Hope all is well with you (and yours)


Birch - if everything so far is leading up to Economic Leveling then a true BULL should follow; and that should more define the Markets over the next few years.

Should that happen your Home will be bombared on a daily basis because you are PERMA BULL #1 and always will be.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The USD at 78.40 is not far off its recent low of 77.40, so whether or not it breaks below 77.40 before going higher, the overall conclusion is positive for the U.S. Dollar to exhibit a volatile uptrend into the end of 2009 and probably beyond. Key resistance lies at USD 90, which it should achieve before year end. This scenario remains in force unless the USD breaks below 75."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article12727.html

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm still gasping from the fact the Birchtree uttered the words "lily pad" without derision.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Watch it warren, he's like the market some times, a headfake. Keeps us on our toes.:laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The VIX is slowly drifting back down to 25 and somebody is buying the banks again. I've decided to rest today and do my buying next week. The last hour could be interesting if we can turn a little positive - gett'em all worked up over the weekend. I've made a list of my stocks that took the heavy hits today - value plays for me later.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The NASDAQ 100 (OEX)...Has it been in a bull market rally, or in a bear market rally?"

http://safehaven.com/article-14193.htm

The VIX did break 25 to close down 0.44 at 24.27 - this could be a harbinger for Monday. I'm looking forward to September as one of my larger dividend paying months - there is nothing sweeter than those dividend reinvestments. I should also collect about 72 C fund shares after the close today. I think the C fund $11 range will soon be history.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The VIX Index (aka Fear Index) is flashing warning signs that investors have become too confident and bullish..."

http://financialsense/fsu/editorials/harding/2009/0814.html

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"For decades, consumer spending led the U.S. economy. As the U.S. consumer curtails their spending to replenish finances, they will not be leading the way to economic recovery this time. Rather, the U.S. will be looking to the rising export economy to provide the power behind the country's growth in GDP." This is what Birchtree has thought all along.

http://[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/wagner/2009/0814.html

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"For decades, consumer spending led the U.S. economy. As the U.S. consumer curtails their spending to replenish finances, they will not be leading the way to economic recovery this time. Rather, the U.S. will be looking to the rising export economy to provide the power behind the country's growth in GDP." This is what Birchtree has thought all along.

What are we exporting, besides jobs? You mean government spending won't lead the way to economic recovery? Don't say that to BHO. He might put you on Linda Douglass' watch list.:nuts:

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

You're only 500 posts away from being the first non-honorary member of the TSP Talk Hall of Fame.

October 29th, 2009 is the ETA for Birch's HOF induction if he can keep up with his average 6 posts a day. I'm very bullish on the outcome of this event.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've now made 338 individual stock purchases since 6/26 - does it ever end. Working on my buy list I now have 80 stocks that I want to DCA. It would be great if I can buy them all next week. I believe that would put me over $1M in margin debt. How much profit will that make me in this continuation of the mega trend secular bull market through December. I expect a serious correction will develope once all the side liners have tossed their money into the market - perhaps when everyone is expecting the Santa Claus rally and it turns out to be a nightmare instead - that would be classic. Run the market down hill on a sled to scare the juice out of everyone. Come on hit me with your best shot.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Markets can't make a true breakout if the oscillators never pull back. Breaking out at very overbought is not what any real bull wants to see take place. Bottom line is that no damage was done today (8/14), but some much needed oscillator unwinding has finally begun. As long as the market holds above 956, and I say it will, as the oscillators unwind, this market should have yet another leg up over time."

http://safehaven.com/article-14201.htm

 

[Fivetears]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Dennis, I'm just happy to see the "C" 200-day MA begin to bend upward; even if it's ever so slightly.

 

[Mcqlives]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

How much profit will that make me in this continuation of the mega trend secular bull market through December. I expect a serious correction will develope once all the side liners have tossed their money into the market - perhaps when everyone is expecting the Santa Claus rally and it turns out to be a nightmare instead - that would be classic. Run the market down hill on a sled to scare the juice out of everyone. Come on hit me with your best shot.

Birch,

Hope this finds you enjoying your Saturday and not looking at this screen too much! I have been in trial prep all week so have not been following th MB at all. Got up early to go through it (before more trial prep) and your message about jumped off the screen. Are you saying that you you expect a possible retraction to the 956 level before a third leg up and then a serious correction when the side liners commit?
If so, what is your best guess at the correction low level? 600 and 700 numbers have floated around this board but I can't see us doing that unless the dollar suffers a total meltdown. If the third leg takes us up above 1100 or so this I see the 900 range being low?

Comments?

-mcq

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It's a long time to December so who knows how high the SPX will be by then. However, the higher we go maybe to 1300 the more people will be forced to commit and the better they will feel. That's when the blind side takes a piece of your heart. We could easily drop a 100 points on the SPX over a two week period - that would not be devastating but still painful. It would not hurt those that got in early but only the late arrivals - classic market deliverence. I'll be watching the VIX and when it hits my trip wire at 20 I'll start pulling back on my tugboat - timing is of the essence. Move to soon and you sacrifice further gains - wait to long and you'll experience pain. I'll probably be wrong in my moves so I'm totally accepting of any pain - actually I view pain generally from an optimistic view point because it presents valuable value in lower prices. This cyclical bull market inside the mega trend secular bull market could easily last another five years or longer - so the objective going forward will be to constantly be on the lookout for the next top. That'll keep investing interesting. I fully expect to have accumulated several $M by then in my oceanic and perhaps over $1M in my tugboat.