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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Now there may be a small of anxiety among those market-timing investors and portfolio managers sitting on the sidelines, hoping and praying for a correction so they can get invested. The advance is also youthful in terms of time because most bull markets span at least 24 months with the average bull extending to 30 plus months. Our current bull is only five months - still a baby."
http://www.thestar.com/business/article/681555
Industrial production rose 0.5 percent in June, the first increase in nine months, offering fresh evidence that the recession is winding down. Excuse me while I kiss the Kress.
Re: Birchtree's account talk
So the over / under is Oct 29? Give me $50 on the under, and I'll parlay that with Birch being a bull on that day also.
Never bet against the B!
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"The rally after the panic of 1907 ran up 61% in nine months - could we do better than that - 57% takes us to 1044. Over the next two years the 1907 rally gained 90%. Many equity market rallies have stalled within a few months of the first rate rise by the central bank. This implies that this rally can last a bit longer, as higher rates are unlikely for a year yet. Looking at speed, the current rally has already come further in its first five months than any other post-war bull market managed in its first full year, but one. The exception was the 1982 rally, the start of one of the greatest bull markets ever." Are we at the beginning of something historic - buy early and buy often.
http://www.ft.com by John Authers Lessons of history points to a short-lived rally 8/15/09
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"The breaking above of the moving averages and of the Head and Shoulder Bottom's neckline would be very convincing if it were not for the sheer lack of volume that accompanied them. For these moves to be truly valid and compelling we need to see volume significantly increase when they occur. While dipping ever so slightly from mid June to early July, this market certainly has nowhere tested its March lows."
http://rosemanblog.sovereignsociety.com/2009/08/technically-speaking.html
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Bear Market Phasing. According to Dow Theory, each bull and bear market period has three separate phases."
http://safehaven.com/article-14204.htm
"In sum, there is no pressure for the Fed to change policy ant time soon, and the first rate hike may not occur until 2011. No Change from the Fed."
http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Too far down too fast this morning - could simply be a head fake. Not a time to cut and run. Big bull markets always find a way to keep you frightened and out. Big bull markets are devils with no conscience - to get in you have to close your eyes, and just do it. Not easy, but in this business nothing is easy except losing money. The VIX is up 4.00 to 28.32 and for what reason - everyone afraid of China's correction. That's just rediculous. I'm going to absorb this pain and see how much it hurts. Staying long and being strong. Down volume is 40 times up volume - smells like a wrong way stampede.
Geaux4it
Member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I'm going to take this one on the chin. To many on the bandwagon so it's taking the bumpy road to knock off some of the load. Then it's back to the smooth blacktop.
GeauxRe: Birchtree's account talk
I do agree, that going all the way out is not smart, but some action is needed. There will be a lot of painful returns tomorrow, but then the bounce? I went from all in with the c,i; to G-60,C-16,S-10,I-15. Clutching onto my mnthly gains while, leaving some out there. What I have out there today is gone, I must plan carefully with only 2 moves per month. :suspicious:
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
We are far from panic time - looking for the market to hold the 10-DMA. For the SPX that is at 983, while the Dow is at 9125. This will happen all the way up in a bull market. As Bullitt reminded me bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gun shy and keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend. So I don't usually worry about these one day hammer drops. I'll be back doing some buying in the middle of the week - you've simply got to have confidence in the new bull market.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Now would be a perfect time for some of those up ahead of me on the tracker to start running scared and move to the lily pad - but they're a tough bunch. Evidently no one is going to move. It's a stand off to the last man standing. I do believe the dollar is actually positive on the day so far - ouch for the buy and hold nine on the I fund.
Medic72
Member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I have my fox hole dug already, i have been improving it over the weekend, i even have overhead cover already
Dig in everyone and take the shelling like a man/woman!
when the dust clears we will see who is still holding on to the rung of the ladder.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I'm glad Stickan is familiar with Ray Merriman's work.
http://mmacycles.com
burrocrat
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I'm with ya birch, let's get a good correction here, shake a few more outta the tree, I'm in for the ride, let 'er rip tater chip (picked that one up in a bar outside thomasville alabama), fella was smart, never know it by looking, but had all he wanted, not a bad way to be.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch,
My wonderful brother
Why are you not cheering and ranting and raving !!!
Could you not tell from the IFT of the Day yesterday that the BS would follow through :cheesy:
BTW - You got me in trouble the other day. I'm usually very low key and try to be 'professional'. I read your comment about 'not seeing the transvestites in the crowd' and I laughed out loud (so hard) that a receptionist out in the hallway asked 'If everything was OK? What in the world is going on? Why is 'Mr Quiet' laughing so hard??:embarrest:
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Amazingly I have not seen S Fund activity from him (at least that I can think of)"
Open mouth - insert foot :worried:
Sorry Birch - I had no idea you'd shifted into S Fund recently
OK - will leave ya alone :embarrest:
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
On August 20th the July index of leading economic indicators will show the country is already out of recession. The market is currently discounting better times ahead. Turning bearish on the market is usually a big mistake in a year when the dominant yearly Kress cycle is up. All stock prices reflect is the expectation of the future stream of earnings - and earnings are improving. Looking for the return of Goldilocks economy, again.Similar threads
