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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
You know that is certainly doable - why not tomorrow. I'm staying in front of the train and have another 28 stocks to buy before I can rest. Then Mindylou and Ferdinand will help me build my next list. Was today a surprise, nah, but tomorrow might be a BIG surprise. The hedge funds simply have to buy their way in or loose business and the longer they wait the more expensive it will be - hesitation can be expensive. The seven sentinels will probably do another flip flop real soon. If I can get two more big $K days I might make my goal again. That would be comforting for a renegade contrarian.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Now hear this; rallies during the early summer months of May, June, and July have historically shown the smallest potential gains for all 12 months of the year. I can only wonder what may happen 4Q. Already short interest on the S&P 500 declined to 8.77 billion shares as of July 31. I see where hedge fund manager John Paulson, who has been short the financials for the last two years, bought a 160 million share position in BAC. Now the rest will start paying attention and the herd will roam creating a stampede. Buy early and buy often to please the bull. I think the mmacycles guy is right - we are going to have some potentially explosive and large price swings. The tsunami of liquidity is going to send this market parabolic right back to SPX 1300. If this market wants me to chase like I did today on the highs above 175 points then I'm ready to smoke some $K again tomorrow. The more you have in the more you can win. I'm fully prepared to be buried up to my eye brows in superlative bull manure. We'll see if I can avoid the blind side that I know is coming for purposes of climbing the tracker.
McDuck
Well-known member
Last edited:
KevinD
Well-known member
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
There is always something bad waiting to happen and usually catches most people by surprise. Now everyone is waiting for the over bought correction which may not happen. Then everyone gets in and then the trap is set. The objective is to be prescient enough to make a constructive tracker move to side step the damage without over sacrificing more upside profit. I have my target signal but we are not there yet.
WorkFE
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
BT,
Although I do not believe that correction will be the 660 that some have predicted I do believe it will be deep enough to make the two step worth it. I believe however that you will need to be in the right position with 2 IFT's to get into the dance. If not you'll miss half the corrections retrace before your able to get back in.
I know these are broad parameters but 1150-1300 seems to be the majority consensus.
Thoughts? And anyone else as well.
JamesE
Member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch, by all means, please keep us posted here. After the market of 2008, I'm quite sure there are many, many people like myself over half way through their career, looking to make up lost ground. Many thanks, your comments are valuable to folks here!
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I'm thinking down the road when everyone is over the hill bullish. That time frame may be around the much anticipated Christmas rally. The VIX should be close to the trip wire of 20 and that is my target. It would be the perfect time to raid the blueberry patch if you know what I mean. When the VIX goes to 20 I will go to the lily pad for awhile - at least that's the plan. Because I know the blind side is waiting. The question now is how much buying do I want to do today in case we explode to the upside.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch,
Sometimes you say something that goes right to the fabric of my being - straight from the heart - very true and practical.
This is one of the them.
Even if an overbought correction happens it will not change (and can not change) the FACT that the Economy is Leveling off. The MB in general (including me) have been use to 'short term' plays and more focused on 'overbought conditions' 'VIX' etc. etc.
At some point it is way better to plan for the LONG RUN - knowing that short term corrections are inevitable and can not be avoided but all the more KNOWING - when the Recession is 'officially over' only those fully invested will reap the benefits of wise investing.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"It is likely that the stock market has discounted a far rosier economic recovery than will probably be seen given massive headwinds facing the economy. As such, the further the market advances and the richer valuations become the greater the eventual disappointment and sell off that will likely occur. However, the eventual disappointment is not likely to be seen until the end of the year or into early 2010 given the money flow trends in margin debt and money market funds coupled with underinvested portfolio managers, and the real possibility of a positive for Q3 GDP, which likely be hailed the mother of all green shoots so far."
http://financialsense.com Balancing Act by Puplava 8/12/09
Medic72
Member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
ive been leaning towards the 1100 mark myself, wondering if i can tough it out to 1200 if it goes that far, but not willing to go back down below 1000 if it breaks 1100.
i didnt think i would push to the g no matter what happend but the more i think about, might be worth a sidestep just to be sure
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