Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

It's time to shut down and go read the Sunday paper - but first I want to say how excited I am to be in debt. Margin is good in a bull market. If we rally some Monday I plan to maintain my discipline of dollar cost averaging my portfolio and buy early and buy often. Investor Barton Biggs thinks the SPX will rise another 22% from here (1232) as the global economy emerges from its recession buoyed by improving consumer spending and housing markets. The NYSE breadth MCSUM index is at 1356.65 and has breached the multi-year bull market line with a 3 step pattern confirmation - definitely stinks like a bull market with all that superlative bull manure floating around. A value this high indicates there will be very little damage in any correction going forward. We could easily blow right through SPX 1036 on the open which would force me to run like the wind again to play gett'em even when they're hot. Mindylou and Ferdinand have worked up my next buy list and we are ready for anything at this point. The only thing I don't want to do is pay $12 for my next purchase of the C fund - let me have a few more $11 ranges.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

For some reason when I think of Birch I think of Cal Ripken's 'Ironman' record of consecutive games played. He's out there posting on good days and bad and hardly ever calls in sick, and has never hid his head in the sand during a bear market. Nobody is even close to getting in his way of breaking the record for posts.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

And damn the weird thing is I couldn't bring myself to go negative on the way down. The further down we went the more positive I actually became - giving up $1M only made me more upbeat because I knew today would come around and a new bull market would make me a great deal of money. All I had to do was hold my asset base intact and dump more money down the well on the bottom - I think I may be pretty set for life after this run is over in five or seven years. On the March low we were off 7,617 points from the October 9 high in 2007 - and I will chase everyone of those points back up to 14,164.58. Snort.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
I love your posts...thanks for the insight. Although I don't post much, I read often, and always tend to read your posts on the MB first. I noticed you mentioned the recent strength in the dollar - are you changing your distribution in your I Fund? I believe I may be making a change to just C and S fund soon. Thanks again!
Big Pappa P
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey BT, I was going to ask you why you aren't buying any of those wallflowers in the S fund, but I see you made an IFT to get some. I may be moving some of my I fund allocation over to the S today.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Way to go Birch!

tsptalk said:
Hey B,

You're only 500 posts away from being the first non-honorary member of the TSP Talk Hall of Fame. Nnutt is actually in already, but his title remains "Moderator". Yours will be "Hall of Fame" as soon as you reach 10,000.

Show-me and I are next in line but still have about 2500 posts to go, but again, we have our member titles already set. Next in line is 350Z and he needs 4700 more posts, so it will be lonely at the top for some time to come.

I know it will be tough to contain yourself, but when it happens, probably in the next few months, I will make an announcement of some sort. That's quite an accomplishment. I don't always agree with what you say, but I appreciate all (OK, most) of your input. Thanks!

List of Titles
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Re: Birchtree's account talk

hey birch, i moved some into the I fund for the first time in history not to long ago :( and i still dont understand the whole concept yet but i think its time for me to move back more towards 50/50.

I see you left 15 in the I fund, is that to offset any off days for the c/s or what? It has helped me stay closer to even lately but im still not sure if i should just leave it alone or move it back to the 50/50 that i like so much.

thanks Snort!
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

yeah wake up and stomp some dirt for us!

i did it anyway i went 50c 40s 10I, i didnt really like the I fund anyway :)

Snort!
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

What I find interesting is that the NYSE breadth McClellan Summation Index (MCSUM) at a level of1356.65 and rising is now above the previous resistance line of the RA (ratio adjusted) NYAD line that goes back to the previous all time highs from 1959. We are still not at the previous high from 2007 but will eventually exceed that level and take us to new all time highs. A lot of the technical damage from last year has now been repaired and with the tsunami of liquidity waiting for the right moment to explode we are definitely going much much higher. The March 6th low came no where near the internal damage that happened during the bottom of 2002-03 - this sets up a very nice positive divergence. That tells me this rally will continue as soon as these few days of give back are over. I'm staying strong and long. The 1959 line has now become support for this index. Wouldn't it be funny if today was the last day of our needed correction - stuff happens in a bull market. Normally, a secondary correction will recoup one-third to two thirds of the ground lost during the preceding bear leg. The preceding bear leg carried us from 14,164,58 on October 9, 2007 to 6547.05 on March 9, 2009 - a total loss of 7,617 points. A two-thirds recoup of the bear market losses could take the Dow back to 11,619. The only question is how fast will it happen - if you believe like I do in the principle of symmetry it could be zippidity doo right back to the top. Now that deserves a big SNORT.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I sat out the last two days but I think today I could be a buyer of stocks. I'm not a follower of any particular system because there are so many available. Use the short term moving average violation before reducing positions. Use the 10-DMA. In the SPX's case that moving average is currently at 983, while the DJIA's 10-DMA is at 9125. This seems reasonable to me.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Following my discipline of dollar cost averaging into the rally - buy early and often. Today we have: UFS, STN, SSD, RJF, ONB, DHI, AA, BMS. The higher we go the more these lonely but lovely wall flowers are going to cost. That's my burden in life. I shall return later with the next catch.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p36573436093

VIX appears to be topped out, tagged the top of the bollinger. Could be a GREAT sign in the short term.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'll be nervous when the VIX drops below 20 - until then I'm solid.

Here's a quote from my post #6235. "The more important thing to note is that dollar cost averaging takes guts. How many people - having invested thousands of dollars when the SPX was at 1,300 and 1,400 - would have still been able to put more money in at 700?"
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm starting to feel like one of the infamous panic buyers - this market is forcing me to chase it as fast as my fingers can go. Just bought: BCS, CX, EP, AGO, WGO, ANF, FGP, BVF, FBP, TRW, STI, BBT. If the Dow goes over 150 points up I'll run a little faster - trying to buy early and often. The list just never ends.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
It's been one hell of a ride since I joined the MB with mostly huge holes in the pavement that took us down to bottom and caused enormous damage.

All things considered however - there is no question that:

Be Right and Sit Tight
Be In to WIN

and all the other little tid bits :rolleyes: you've thrown out over the years

IS THE BEST ADVICE SO FAR.

Only those that have held on since early 3/09 have reaped in the rewards.

 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

This market is wearing me out. I need to rest. Just bought: PXP, BK, B, AES, HD, ARM, TRI, TRN. No correction yet for this stealth rally.
 
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