Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Historically the consensus of opinion is that small caps usually outperform in the early stages of a bull market. I'm staying with large caps in the C and I fund for the longer term. I have plenty of individual small cap stocks in my oceanic account so I'm covered with diversification. Waiting on the VIX to tumble. I believe that interest rates are frozen for the next two years and the dollar will remain weak to help with exports. The flash GDP could easily be revised upward as opposed to downward like the last few quarters. The GDP may be in the 3% range by 1Q 2010. I'm buying this bull all the way up and won't take any profits until sometime next year.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Clear. I have a private account that is loaded down with small caps (mostly overseas) and was looking to maximize my gains over the short term on the TSP (trying to make up for 08). I think I'll throw my all I fund out and follow (or come close) Lady's lead.

Thanks again!
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've made 233 individual purchases since 6/26. If I can maintain that momentum for the next five months I'll have a run of 1150 more purchase orders. I think that'll be fun.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Have you seen a psychiatrist lately?:toung: Not that I don't envy your ability to do this but you have to be at least a little insane to take that many positions!
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm only dollar cost averaging my current positions of which there are 321. That would only be three purchases per position or so and I'm trying to stay disciplined and only buy on the upside. The more you have working in a bull market the more you can win. The future is bright. Last fall I made 432 individual buys on the market bottom and that strategy was very propitious - but did take courage. Then I let the first leg of the rally run without buying or selling anything - just relaxing so to speak. Now the time has come to be aggressive and scoop up the value that wall flowers present. This bull market has the potential to make me several million dollars. We have a long, long way to go before we top again and I'm already shopping for ways to spend the profits. Be in to win. The buyers will come into this market and send or catapult the indexes to much higher levels - my Dow high is 17,000 and perhaps beyond. All I can do is ride the bull. So my advice is to buy early and often - it's all cumulative and I know very well what a bull market can do - I've had the pleasure several times over the years. Only now I have available financing to engage my fantasy with some investing acumen and years of experience. So let me drown in stocks and build a fortune.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The Shark says don't buck this trend. This move has a strong underlying support, so we should give it the benefit of the doubt. He's so far down the tracker (160) I have to wonder if he's practicing what he preaches. Folks, we should begin to see the buying panic create a stampede next week. I'd settle for a couple of 200 point days to tickle my bullish hoofs.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"There are only two major conditions for liquidity flows. They are either in expansion or contraction. During liquidity expansion, the inflows exceed all the outflows and net positive money is entering the stock market. That means that, not only are people buying, but they are hesitating to sell because they do not want to miss out on perceived, additional action to the upside. Liquidity broke a resistance line to the upside and shot up on July 15th."

http://safehaven.com/article-14063.htm

I've also noticed that we're setting up foa a 3 step pattern confirmation on the MCSUM once we get over +1250 - we're now at 1150. That will be mucho bullish. We are now nicely tracking the lift off from March'03 and if that continues I would not look for any weakness until after January 2010. That's only another six months to wait to get in. After all we may run for five years so there really is no hurry.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

BirchTree,

Do you have any on-line tools that you can use to generate an annualized return on a TSP account (or other accounts).

That is, a reasonable estimate using the annual sheet provided by TSP. They tell me how much I contributed up to 2008/12/31. My problem is that there seem to be multiple ways to compute average annual return.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Sorry I don't use any on-line tools - I'm usually not that concerned about percentages.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

How about this percentage.

Q: Birch, what percentage of currently listed NYSE stocks do you own?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Bullitt,

It's a bunch is all I know and I'm ready to include a few more new ones to the harem. I'll be adding VCI, TEX, BLT probably come Monday.

"The Dow Jones Index ended July at 9171, up 725 points, 8.6% on the month, up 2701 points, 41.8% from the March 6470 low.

A few like Birchtree and Bullitt have ridden the rally, which is the whole point of stocks stealth bull markets as most investors smarting from the bear market remain paralyzed by fear of the preceding bear market that either miss or in fact consistently bet against, convinced by a stream of statistics as to why this rally should immediately terminate, no matter that the so called bear market rally has risen some 40% since the March lows." I think I've got myself fairly well set to participate in the coming panic buying stampede and will continue to chase the momentum. At the moment the medium term trend is strongly up, and in light of the break out is likely to persist. All this hoofhearted fellow can do now is ride the bull. I will at some point take the tugboat to safe harbor when I see my signal.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article12443.html
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

The percentage thang isn't to string around my neck as a thing of beauty or around my shoulders as sack of cloth... Even if it turns out to be a purty gewgaw there are many on this board that have shinier trinkets.

I really just want to know how I match up to a basic index like the S&P. Mutual funds seem to have it, and our annual TSP has the PIP. Anyway, I really don't want my investing style to ever dump me in a bond growth rate without knowing it. Not having the numbers concerns me because I have no empiric way of looking at what I am doing over time. The problem is in the compounding of growth/decline, my contributions, and my transactions. Kinda like the math. :p I know :nuts: I’ll poke around some more. Maybe deeper in Quicken.

By the way, that pig I was riding shook off its pinkish flesh, snorted loud and clear, and is charging about looking for red cloaks – hopefully with eyes wide open for the daggers that remain. Thanks for stiffening my spine in March – I have never experienced dives like October, November, and early March. Losing as much in one day as one could have gained in one of the best months on record – those were tough days and could have completely changed my investing style.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Boghie,

Now prepare yourself for the coming volcano of bullish buyers. There is going to be a lot of capitulation to the uptrend and big points moves in tandem. The 50 day EMA may take the 200 day EMA sometime in the next few weeks - then all hell is going to break loose. It may start sooner than that. This is one of the steepest rallies in more than 70 years and I'm right on top of it. The bulls are off and running and it finally feels pleasant. Despite it all, very few people believe this rally can last - watch the bears get the horns. The longer the herd takes to get in on this rally the longer it is determined to run - it's simply classic bull market maneuvers. When overbought becomes even more overbought - that's a sign of a bull market advance. Another thing to remember is that a large percentage gain of no money is still no money. In TSP grey rules because of time in grade.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

I am not as long term bullish as you, but am now leaning on the nearest bull like some closing time boozer.

I don't think the Gubmint (other than the FED) is doing much right. But, maybe the State doesn't play much of a role in the economy anyway. I do think folks are starting to discount the yak emanating from the administration now. In a way, Congress’ porkified projectile barf (the Stimulus/Non-Stimulus package) may have been a good thing. Now jaded eyes peer at every move.

Fool me once; there will not be a second time…

A little government gridlock would be a very good thing. And it has come!!!
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yes we all celebrate grid lock - don't socialize what doesn't need socializing. I'm bullish for the next five years and so far this market has mirrored the March 2003 move off that bottom. I spent several hundred $K in the month of July and am prepared to do the same in August. Risky you bet - but as long as I'm the only one buying I'm safe from harm. Now once the crowd appears I'll have to be more discriminating on my expenditures.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Market On Breakout....Possible Back Test Coming. Bulls are increasing in numbers but nowhere near anything that resembles a problem for the market. There is still plenty of bearishness out there to keep the market moving higher overall, pullbacks not withstanding. As long as money is rotating and not leaving the market, all is good. As individual sectors get overbought, money rotates elsewhere, leaving a bid in the market. This is bullish overall action." I'm thinking now that next week could very well be my second ever $100K week. Or as that just a fantasy?

http://safehaven.com/article-14067.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Bman,

congrates on moving in to the top 50 on the tracker, It would seem the lillie pad is getting very panic place watch all uptrend money passing by also I went 60% I fund friday smokean hot snort I=====
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Pschiffdicpal said:
Bman,
It would seem that the Lilly Padders are experiencing some panic while
watching all that money passing them by. I went 60% (I) fund on Friday
and it's been smoking hot ,,,,, snort !
Click to expand...


If I read and re-wrote the above statement correctly, I don't agree with
your statement. Being in the (G) myself and missng out on approximately
6% of potential gains is abit frustrating. However, I believe the Bman will
agree that the train hasn't left the station just yet. In other words, the
Trillions on the sidelines will be pressed into action and push this market
even higher. So "panic" wouldn't quite define my experience. Your Friday
decision to jump into the (I) Fund at 60% was perfectly timed and may
still reward you with more profit. Congratulations on the call and best of
luck this coming week. As for me, I might just board that train your on
and enjoy the ride along with the Bman and yourself. ;)
 
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