Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Investor Sentiment: Dumb Money Bullish Again. Typically, extremes in bullish sentiment are a bear signal unless this is a bull market circa 1995 or 2003. As investors are not buying into the rally, one might conclude that the rally will march onward and upward until they do, and then it will rollover."

http://safehaven.com/article-14078.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Suprisingly, inspite of the tremendous stock rally since early March, data show that mutual fund investors over the period have apparently finally embraced a great deal of our long standing fondness for bonds. In fact, fund investors have been net buyers of bond funds to the tune of approximately four times the amount that they have been investing in stock funds....we doubt that bond prospects will prove to be worth a four times bigger bet than stocks going forward." This is a delicious classic mistake but eventually rotation will bring these bond investors back to equities and make the stock bull happy. The bull always likes to take as few people to the upside and as many as possible to the downside. But that's a long ways off from now.

http://safehaven.com/article-14075.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The open looks like it may be a nice buying day for the oceanic - many are waiting for the opportunity to join the portfolio and commiserate with their friends.

"The 200-day moving average (sma) of the S&P 500 Index last week turned up for the first time since January 2008, after being breached upwards by the Index in earlky June. When considering monthly data, three momentum type oscillators (RSI, MACD, and ROC) are reversing course for the first time since the sell signals of 2007 and now either indicate buy signals or getting close to one in the case of MACD."

http://safehaven.com/article-14076.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

This is so sad and I feel so bad - but I'm getting mine so what else can I say. When you play in the investment arena it's a risky game but with tremendous potential.

"The Great Missed Opportunity of 2009. Countless numbers of investors caught up in the tangled web of pessimistic head lines failed to pull the trigger on what is turning out to be one of the best market recovery years of our lifetime."

http://safehaven.com/article-14024.htm

 

[Medic72]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

we did good birch

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I can hear the herd chanting in the distance - get me in, hurry, hurry. I've got to go do my own buying so I don't get crushed by the buying panic that is starting.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Trying to do my part to help the rally and promote bullishness and make the bears very nervous by increasing their anxiety levels. Bought: ANN, SPN, KMT, HBI, KEX, KWR, TEX, VCI, ELN, BLT. If the Dow or NYSE can stay over 100 points positive I've got more work to do.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just completed my run program for today - can't wait for tomorrow but I'm taking my time in a deliberate manner. Bought: BTH, BW, FIG,TPC, AF, AIN, CBU, DDR, CBG, GCI.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The VIX finally went negative on the close at 25.59 down 0.33. This may mean another positive day tomorrow.

 

[Elgallo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Sat on my hands for over two years did nothing and bought like a banchee!!! SNORT as Birch would say!

Yaeh, it was/is bad out there, but not as bad as the overly pessimistic may have thought.

 

[Pschiffdicpal]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The VIX finally went negative on the close at 25.59 down 0.33. This may mean another positive day tomorrow.

Bman,

good vol day 5billion in C may give some a shot, since that 11 trillion looks in play! were off to the races, if I see the finish line I will yell, if you see it give a yell because BUY AND HOLD AINT HOW YOU MAKE MONEY IN THIS MARKET. right?:notrust:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

PPal,

Buy and hold is the only way to make money in this market if you own individual stocks. I do plan to exit my tracker position but only so that I can move up past the insufferable nine I fund buy and holders - it's the only way out to get past them. I have my target signal but it ain't ready yet. The angle of ascent is impressive and we may be following the principle of symmetry right back to SPX 1300. If that happens I'll reward myself by taking a bath in a tub full of golden bull tinky.

 

[GUCHI]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I do plan to exit my tracker position but only so that I can move up past the insufferable nine I fund buy and holders - it's the only way out to get past them.

Birch

you talkin to me ????? as said in the classic movie Scaerface !!!!!!

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

A few like Birchtree and Bullitt have ridden the rally, which is the whole point of stocks stealth bull markets as most investors smarting from the bear market remain paralyzed by fear

Keep laying on the bullish covering fire so I can slip out the back door when nobody's expecting it.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think that line actually came from Taxi Driver. I don't subscribe to the Shark so I'm eligible to offer a critique when the mood strikes me. The Shark says; "a straight-up market is hard to trade. I'm getting worn out by this pattern of near-ceaseless bullishness." He better get used to it awhile longer. I do know the angle of ascent is impressive - nothing like being left behind. If I were on the sidelines with ample cash I wouldn't be able to relax - knowing the potential that was slipping through my fingers - luckily I have ample cash and have been a consistent buyer of the stinky ones. Snort.

 

[Mcqlives]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The VIX finally went negative on the close at 25.59 down 0.33. This may mean another positive day tomorrow.

Took longer than I thought...by about 4 hours, but we are now over 1000! That with the VIX going Negative plus the reports coming in this week being better (I hope) than feared...do I hear 1100 close by the end of the week and 1300 close by the end of the month?

 

[KevinD]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Admit it Birch. If you had bailed to the Lilly Pad in mid '08 and bought back in some time early this year, your tug boat would be a lot better off.

Go ahead...admit it.


















































Ducking and running....................... :laugh:

 

[Pschiffdicpal]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

PPal,

Buy and hold is the only way to make money in this market if you own individual stocks. I do plan to exit my tracker position but only so that I can move up past the insufferable nine I fund buy and holders - it's the only way out to get past them. I have my target signal but it ain't ready yet. The angle of ascent is impressive and we may be following the principle of symmetry right back to SPX 1300. If that happens I'll reward myself by taking a bath in a tub full of golden bull tinky.

Right on right on right on

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Geesus I hope not - I'll start having palpatations. I've got to spend several more hundred thousand dollars before we get there and I don't want to do it all at once. I prefer to take the dollar cost averaging slow approach - but if the market does do a Dell Shannon runaway I'm in deep enough to benefit. But we came down so fast the available liquidity could push us up really fast to mirror that slide - we could be at SPX 1300 by October. My target for the yearly close remains at 1700.

 

[Pschiffdicpal]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Geesus I hope not - I'll start having palpatations. I've got to spend several more hundred thousand dollars before we get there and I don't want to do it all at once. I prefer to take the dollar cost averaging slow approach - but if the market does do a Dell Shannon runaway I'm in deep enough to benefit. But we came down so fast the available liquidity could push us up really fast to mirror that slide - we could be at SPX 1300 by October. My target for the yearly close remains at 1700.

bman
11 trillion on some of your previous calls, I have heard other state 14 to 17 trillion, Dollar is below 78 and when the dollar was at the low 70 a couple of years ago S and I where both above 20+. It sure look like a Hot run, thats a strong run up, snort+++++=====