Birchtree's Account Talk

[Lobo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just completed the rest of my purchases for this afternoon: TEN, JCI, HRS, HSC, GLT,MWV, JNY - I could do more but tomorrow is another day.

Lobo,

I'm currently 65C and 35I and plan to stay there until the VIX breaks 20 - that will be my first move toward any safety in I don't know how many years - I don't ever recall being in the G fund. When the VIX breaks 20 and the Dow Theory flashes a buy signal the herd will join the market and that might be time for a contrarian to rest for awhile - I'll probably drip feed the G fund as we rocket up to much higher levels. The TSP was designed as a fiduciary account to help us save for retirement and the way to do that has been to accumulate shares via dollar cost averaging. When I retire, and that may be soon, the DCA will stop and the timing will begin. You simply have to learn before you churn. Serious money can be made when one can push around 40,000 shares. Most people when they retire would not follow this strategy - but I've saved a long time and do not want to let this opportunity pass me by. That's why I'm on this board - to learn from others. Snort.

Thanks Birch!! Very clear! I appreciate your thinking on that! I AM retired...and still trying to "play" it at least a little. I currently have just a little more in my TSP than I did a year ago when I retired....and that after I have withdrawn a little check each month in the last year....so, I feel very fortunate. My goal is to hopefully always be able to at least maintain the balance I now have, hopefully more, and never draw the account down below that level...at least end up back up to that level each year. So far, so good.

Lobo

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Bullitt,

This strategy would be similar to the one you have already initiated - I'm just not ready yet. I think you'll see the big money being forced into the market real soon because they can't risk being behind their benchmarks. And even if the retail mom and pop are still perplexed they will begin to follow when the Dow Theory sends its signal. The cry will be get me in at any price and as a contrarian it will be time to pull back a little and wait for deliverance. On one day last week I made $52K and that's what I want tomorrow. Can you help?

Sorry, but if you're looking for someone to buy higher, I'm not the one. I do agree that with all this nonsense coming out about the recession being over and Goldman Sachs raising their S&P year end targets, one has to wonder. Mutual Fund are probably underinvested to some extent, but the hedge funds.... I want them to suffer the worst. Since they promote exotic returns and short selling like it should be a majority of every mom and pop's portfolio, they need to get pummeled the most. Besides, since most of them are overseas in Antigua and other dumping grounds of the world, what better way to bring money back abroad.

The trend followers will be forced to buy in at a break of the highs and hopefully the boys will push it real good on high volume to get more on board. This is how the final C Wave's are initiated.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Bullitt,

After the last couple of years many of the most egregious hedge funds can only be found in dusty history books.

Blackrock is about to became the TSP manager.

Talk about hedge funds...

Yikes...

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yep, only in the history books. And now we've got mom and pop investors who believe hedging strategies are the new way to 'diversify'.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Maybe Blackrock could provide some derivative funds.

Yikes, anybody look at the Blackrock 'Fees, Expenses, and Charges'.

That don't make little ole me too happy...

Maybe it will be time to retire soon...

At age 45. How's that work...

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Today would be an excellent opportunity for the market to close only marginally higher or unchanged. That would allow tomorrow the potential to take out SPX of 956 with mucho gusto. I have made just a few purchases today so far: DOW, RF, GRA. If we do break out above 956 I'll return to the market and accept any whipsaw I'll be exposed to.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birch,
We need ya on Obama's Healthcare Thread to bring in some balance

Most of us are having a hard time coming up with something 'good' to say

Now with me it doesn't make any difference - Black, White, Man or Woman or whatever - I see the Politician and can't seem to get around that.

Where you're able to see a young, handsome, man with charm and smarts and all the other things that make us 'as human beings' decent and respectable.

So you ought to head over there and throw in some good words.

Well you probably saw I cowered out - not because it was a wise thing to do - but because I'm a spineless - yellow bellied - piece of crap. Buy hey at least I know who I am.

 

[Mcqlives]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Today would be an excellent opportunity for the market to close only marginally higher or unchanged. That would allow tomorrow the potential to take out SPX of 956 with mucho gusto. I have made just a few purchases today so far: DOW, RF, GRA. If we do break out above 956 I'll return to the market and accept any whipsaw I'll be exposed to.

Looks like you may have nailed it (again!) I was looking for sideways to a little down for the day but, if the trend for the final 1/2 hour holds, you'll have your slighly up!
Now if the negative news about CIT is figured in then we should have a nice run to over 1000 set up. If it isn't figured in, then I am betting we have a repeat of the past couple of weeks followed by another, and stronger, run up.

On final thought on my driveby...I've seen some talk over the past 2 days of the head and shoulder pattern being replaced with a "M"...what about it being a "W"?

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
JPMorgan's Chief Global Economist said last night that he definately expects THIS RALLY to continue. As I saw his expression and heard him talk I was very encouraged.

GL Man - I hope ya get at least another 5%

Heading out to the movie

 

[amoeba]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Today would be an excellent opportunity for the market to close only marginally higher or unchanged. That would allow tomorrow the potential to take out SPX of 956 with mucho gusto. I have made just a few purchases today so far: DOW, RF, GRA. If we do break out above 956 I'll return to the market and accept any whipsaw I'll be exposed to.

your TSP is 100% in the market and has been for years. As far as the comment regarding CIT news being figured in; I doubt it - it looks like denial.

I still have a feeling that a CIT filing, however inevitable - will have a reality shock effect - especially if the government does not put up another last second bail out. Been there, did that, with Lehman. CIT doesn't have the market cap, but it does support a million plus small business loans in excess of $60B. As for their current bandaid, they can't pay 10% above LIBOR for money and survive for very long.

While we are talking news being figured in; my sense is the news figured in is the major tech earnings tonight and tomorrow; anything less than a strong "meets" or better will be sold off this thursday.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It looks like we'll open weak and allow the profit takers to get out of the way. Then we'll most likely gain strength throughout the day - this would be typical bull market behavior. I'm a buyer today if we get a continuation move above SPX 956. We are now up 7 trading days consecutively - only 6 more to go. BHO is driving me crazy - c'mon Sarah speak up and set the chicken sh*t guy straight before he ruins this country.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"If the US economy is headed into a nuclear winter, then we may see 2% revisited. (Bond yield). But if the recovery has some legs, then we'll likely see 4% again, and then 5%, over the next year or two. Of some concern to the bullish case (or it should be, anyway) is that the rally up from the March lows has come on steadily declining volume. This trend suggests waning commitment on the part of the buyers. And it would take a surge in volume on a break above SPX 960 to obviate the negative implications of that recently waning commitment."

http://safehaven.com/article-13977.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Bulls try to take it up a notch. Numerous markets, including the S&P 500, are possibly on the threshold of issuing some very bullish signals." Still watch the SPX RSI.

http://safehaven.com/article-13980.htm

So the Chinese are on the way - well I have a few stocks I'd gladly sell them for a sustantial premium.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just noticed we have a new member - 914Driver. I assume that is a reference to the Porche 914 Eggbeater. If she has been rehabilitated I bet she is a beauty. My 1976 Triumph TR-7 is getting a new rebirth to enter high school. The classics rock.

 

[Guest2]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just noticed we have a new member - 914Driver. I assume that is a reference to the Porche 914 Eggbeater. If she has been rehabilitated I bet she is a beauty. My 1976 Triumph TR-7 is getting a new rebirth to enter high school. The classics rock.

I loved the Triangle look myself. I opted for a Bumble Bee Yellow Fiat X1-9 with Black Interior. Boy I miss her !

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Mine was a 1969 GranTorino GT with a 390. Nothing like American Muscle. No offense peoples.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm reminded without being overly tendentious that during a secular bull market, the cyclical or shorter, bull markets within them have historically gaind 110% on average and have lasted at least three years or longer. We have a long way to go on the yellow brick road.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Lead on Tin Man, Lead on.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think I just learned some unpleasant news and I'm sad to the point of tears. It's a Vietnam veteran thing among brothers. I never cry and I am now. The last time I cried was when my siamese cat passed and then it was for three days. I hope I'm overreacting but I have my doubts. This is truly a sad moment. I cried like a baby when my father inlaw passed five years back - he was a WWII vet and another hero. He came from a different generation and had my respect.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

BT, you'll need to be more specific, who passed?