Birchtree's Account Talk

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I read a little something about that VIX move last week. Maybe it will bring a pullback or a major drop but nobody can bet their life on it. My thing with the VIX is, OK there's something to pay attention to when they both move in the same direction because somebody is going to be wrong. The media mentioning every day how much the VIX has dropped is absurd.

It's like sentiment, it only matters when there's something out of the ordinary or exteme in the air. Example: On March 9th, the ISEE came in at 220, allegedly a strong sell signal but we know how that ended up.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Stickan says; "We have a long term bullbreak". I like it. "You know that breaking a rising trendline is serious". Yes, I'm ready for the fast move. If anyone approaches the current market with an open mind, and with a good sense of history, it is nearly impossible to ignore the many reason to accept the possibility a new bull market is upon the scene. Only few are currently believers and this will mean that the wall of worry will ensure sustainability. The NYSE A/D line is strong today and I prefer to watch it rather than concentrate on the VIX. I think I'll go and do a little early buying.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Bought a few lonely doves today: MSB, WOR, BTU, CR, BBT, FGP, but I may not be done yet. We now have the SPX over 945.24 and confirms the action of the last four weeks as a correction pattern within a longer term uptrend. It is known that rallies off of failed H&S patterns tend to be sharp and I don't think we are done yet.

 

[caymanbrac12]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Bought a few lonely doves today: MSB, WOR, BTU, CR, BBT, FGP, but I may not be done yet. We now have the SPX over 945.24 and confirms the action of the last four weeks as a correction pattern within a longer term uptrend. It is known that rallies off of failed H&S patterns tend to be sharp and I don't think we are done yet.

If I'm not mistaken you still have a buy and hold strategy ... I have not been following too closely here so please forgive my memory lapses because I have had a lot on my plate.

I check in here from time to time because of my family ties to a small degree and am always amused Birchtree with your critique and selective observations.

I know if I recall that TSP is your "tugboat" but let's look at the numbers and please forgive my memory which at time can be somewhat spotty but I have no doubt you will correct my analysis.

No slight against you but if you have been buy and hold over the past 18 to 24 months for you TSP what has been you overall return for your TSP- if you don't mind me asking? If I recall last year wasn't one of those stellar years nor has have the overall returns for this year from Jan. 09 been anything to write home to mom about for the indices exempting the NASDAQ.

Example, being more selective and skipping the first 2 months of this year - from March on its been tall clover.

But as you say you are buy i.e. Jan 01, 2009 and hold so I would be interested to get an idea of your overall return only for your TSP in that time frame if you deem that appropriate on a comfort level to disclose for everyone here.

I'm not talking about the Queen Mary of investments you have because it is a complete different set of parameters and falls outside of the bailiwick of TSP investing.

This is just TSP observations with their corresponding results.

cayman

By the way as an example someone with this philosophy who using 100k as a TSP investing example - what would this strategy have netted them in a buy and hold world if you down 40% on your hard earned money and so far 2009 has been a mixed panacea exempting the Goldman call for the S&P to hit 1060.

Example losing half you - say - starting with 100k and drop to 50k. You dropped 50% from 100k to 50k but to recover back to 100k you have to increase by 100% to get back to even.

Personally I would rather let my profits run and cut my losses but everyone else has their own appropriate philosophy comfort level in this endeavor.

I'm much involved in the options game and not withstanding GS's call for 1060 - those are based on some pretty significant rosy outlook - so let's wait and see.

But if you can find it in your heart to give us a TSP analysis regarding your accountng with specific gains over the past two years and investing philosophy that matched I sure all participant would be greatly appreciated.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm eating my lunch and I just realized I don't feel any anxiety or pressure to get into this market like I did last fall on the lows - that's when I do my best work - from the bottom of the well. Now I'm just going to practice the drip feed approach all the way up for as long as the cyclical bull wants to run. We could be talking 3 to another 5 years or perhaps even longer. I won't even consider dry docking the tugboat until the VIX breaks below 20 - then it will be only temporary. The NYSE AD line is2088/800 and getting even more positive - perhaps the SPX will take us over 956 today before we close. If that happens there is no way I'd miss tomorrow. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Cayman,

If I were to indulge your request and give out that percentage I'd end up with more animosity than I've already experienced as an evangelical buy and holder. I will say however that the secret of averaging out bottoms is to use the continous discipline of dollar cost averging of all contributions. The C fund is now up over three points and the I fund is up over five points from the March lows - so I'm comfortable. I am more than several points above my AT rank of close to 7%. Again, the more money one puts in on the declines and bottoms the quicker the rebound - I'm maxed out because of my age and the shares really add up at these golden prices. I will tell you that at the end of 2007 my AT percentage was around 15% but the real return due to DCA was around 22% so that might help fill in the gaps.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm comfortable.

I am more than several points above my AT rank of close to 7%.

That's the sickening part about this whole thing you SOB B&Her

The rest of us are supposed to 'show you up' and use you as the example of what not to do.

I do have a question however - you asked when the Markets would hit 1700 (at least I think that was the Target). Now I'm not asking this to challenge the B&H strategy; but if (and when) the Markets raise up to that HIGH - it would be an exellent time to Lock the GAINS and finish with a tremendous win.

Is that the long range plan??

 

[dannyboy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm following all the links and I am with the Birch since last Monday and my account is up 4.5% and I'm loving it! In the past there has always been a mid-summer slow down where everything kind of stops. This has been a strange year, and I'm going to hop on the bull, and Cowboy, Dannyboy, is going to ride this one out! :nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

That's the plan for now but it's always susceptable to change as we get closer to 1700 - I'd hate to sit out another 500 points. I'll gently remove some crumbs off the table over time. The only way a strong buy and holder does well against the timers is to DCA more shares when they are cheap - that's the secret - the same strategy applies with dividend reinvestments. It's all on auto-matic pilot and left up to fate.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I bought a lot of C fund shares from last summer until now in the $8, $9, $10 range - we fell right through the $11 and $12 range and now will get the golden opportunity to purchase those price ranges on the way up - it's a real blessing to experience this pain when the objective is to accumulate as many shares as one can prior to retirement - because then the DCA stops and timing begins. If you're pushing 40,000 shares around you can make some serious dough if you learn before you churn.

 

[Lobo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Cayman,

If I were to indulge your request and give out that percentage I'd end up with more animosity than I've already experienced as an evangelical buy and holder. I will say however that the secret of averaging out bottoms is to use the continous discipline of dollar cost averging of all contributions. The C fund is now up over three points and the I fund is up over five points from the March lows - so I'm comfortable. I am more than several points above my AT rank of close to 7%. Again, the more money one puts in on the declines and bottoms the quicker the rebound - I'm maxed out because of my age and the shares really add up at these golden prices. I will tell you that at the end of 2007 my AT percentage was around 15% but the real return due to DCA was around 22% so that might help fill in the gaps.

No animosity at all here, Birch. I read your thread all the time. I just get lost with all the "other" stock purchases, but, good for you for doing so well. I've always wished that you, with your obvious expertise and knowledge, would discuss and advise those of us without such, on what you do with your TSP....exactly what are your moves and returns? I think cayman's request is quite reasonable and would be a benefit to those of us who are most concerned with our TSP returns, not knowing much about the "other" stock market. It could be a real benefit to us, and I don't see how folks would show animostiy towards you for revealing that.....more like appreciation!

Lobo

 

[Boghie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

I can't say I'm as bullish, or have been as bullish, as you.

But, I can definitely say I will be a much richer retiree if we get back to S&P 1500. My math tells me that the shares I have purchased - and, those I have accumulated by missing half of the dump - will give me a total return of 38%. I have accumulated a ton of shares at $7 - $11. Even more are coming at the $11 - onward price. Imagine, we were buying 'C Fund' shares at a cheaper price than the first day they were sold to us.

Anyway, my money is that you will do even a bit better since you have been accumulating all the way AND have caught this entire run.

Regardless, I ain't crying.

I will also be on the lookout for a gradual flattening or downturn. That will be the time to take some risk out of the portfolio.

Crying may come later if/when 'The One' or 'Guilty Geithner' opens a yak about farming communes or people power green energy programs or whatever.:cheesy:

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

That's the plan for now but it's always susceptable to change as we get closer to 1700 - I'd hate to sit out another 500 points. I'll gently remove some crumbs off the table over time. The only way a strong buy and holder does well against the timers is to DCA more shares when they are cheap - that's the secret - the same strategy applies with dividend reinvestments. It's all on auto-matic pilot and left up to fate.

The only way a Strong Buy and Holder does well is playing LONG TERM and setting an EXCELLENT END POINT.

If you simply remained a Buy and Holder indefinately that would be a huge mistake. Planning on 1700 as an exit point - depending on how the Wave is moving at that point in time - is Exellent Birch and I hope like everything you're able to carry through with that plan.

We know another Huge Downfall is in the distant future; no matter how much they try to intervene and keep it from happening. Locking in your Gains in another 5 years or so is the best possible move you could make.

I'm hoping the TSP Plan will include a wide array of ETFs in near future and if that happens I leave everything in the TSP.

GL my friend - and no matter what anyone says - you will definately have the 'last laugh'

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just completed the rest of my purchases for this afternoon: TEN, JCI, HRS, HSC, GLT,MWV, JNY - I could do more but tomorrow is another day.

Lobo,

I'm currently 65C and 35I and plan to stay there until the VIX breaks 20 - that will be my first move toward any safety in I don't know how many years - I don't ever recall being in the G fund. When the VIX breaks 20 and the Dow Theory flashes a buy signal the herd will join the market and that might be time for a contrarian to rest for awhile - I'll probably drip feed the G fund as we rocket up to much higher levels. The TSP was designed as a fiduciary account to help us save for retirement and the way to do that has been to accumulate shares via dollar cost averaging. When I retire, and that may be soon, the DCA will stop and the timing will begin. You simply have to learn before you churn. Serious money can be made when one can push around 40,000 shares. Most people when they retire would not follow this strategy - but I've saved a long time and do not want to let this opportunity pass me by. That's why I'm on this board - to learn from others. Snort.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

That's why I'm on this board - to learn from others. Snort.

That's only half the equation my good friend and Solid as a ROCK big brother.

You are on this Board:

to be admired and respected by many members and guests.

to set the example for the weak and unknowing

to show what it is to be a Marine

to throw out some Political BS here and there

to help us all to invest wisely and think LONG TERM so that we might some day look for Lakeside Property

to show us what it's like when you have a wife that has risen to the top and has 4 managers working under her; to have a daughter that use to get in trouble and needed help finding a Direction - and now is a Full Decorated Captain and getting married to a guy better than us.

to show that you can still be 'a man' and enjoy the cat

to show that few things in life compare to growing your own stuff and taking care of your own lawn.

I could go on and on Birch - but have 10 charts to catch up on within 45 minutes.

BUT THE POINT IS - YOU ARE HERE FOR US WAY MORE THAN US BEING HERE FOR YOU.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Everyone on this board makes a contribution, even Harvey. I enjoy the gloom and doomers - they make my life easier. I enjoy the links to graphs like Coolhand and Stickan provides. There are many contributors with their own style. I even enjoy reading as ever overly cautious Tom - he makes my life easier. Investing is hard work and I do my share to make a contribution in my usual permabull way. I may chide the chicletts at times but I collect my own share of chides - all in good fun. So having a family all working toward the same goal of providing information and education helps us all be comfortable in making the correct decisions for the future. The bottom line is there is money at work. My oceanic took in $29K today so the holy grail is also working hard. Tomorrow could easily provide the panic stampede I've been hoping for when the big CAT reports - their future guidance will be critical. So far 70% of reporting companies have exceeded expectations.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

So the Shark says; " If you're not chasing this market, you're being left behind". I wonder what made him see the light? So if one thinks no one is buying stock wait until tomorrow.

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

When the VIX breaks 20 and the Dow Theory flashes a buy signal the herd will join the market and that might be time for a contrarian to rest for awhile - I'll probably drip feed the G fund as we rocket up to much higher levels.

So once we get a Dow Theory "buy signal", you're no longer a buy and holder? A think that a new Dow Theory buy signal is only a few percentage points away.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Excuse me while I kiss the Kress because we are about to see an even more amazing stage of the market's recovery. Some are still thinking this is a sucker's rally. Boy are they in for a wicked surprise. The move from the March lows to April was only the first leg of a continued cyclical rally inside a mega trend secular bull market.

"The vast majority of retail investors have fallen asleep on the broad market recovery since March. The sleepy character of market psychology has become even more pronounced in just the last few weeks as the market spent some time consolidating its gains. In that period of time we've seen quitw a few analysts turn beareish on the market, which is usually a big mistake in a year when the dominant yearly Kress cycle is up."

http://safehaven.com/article-13956.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Bullitt,

The oceanic will keep on rocking the gains while the tugboat might be ready to rest a little - pulling a few percentage to the lily pad. This strategy would be similar to the one you have already initiated - I'm just not ready yet. I think you'll see the big money being forced into the market real soon because they can't risk being behind their benchmarks. And even if the retail mom and pop are still perplexed they will begin to follow when the Dow Theory sends its signal. The cry will be get me in at any price and as a contrarian it will be time to pull back a little and wait for deliverance. On one day last week I made $52K and that's what I want tomorrow. Can you help?