Birchtree's Account Talk

[alevin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Actually, if I'd been paying closer attention to candlesticks myself, I might have done a "short-term" flyer with part of my TSP on Monday, on a bet that we'd get the 4th week big white. My loss, your gain. I'll pay more attention in future. Meantime, still no 13/34 EMA weekly cross yet. Maybe this big white will have a followthrough week next week and make the cross happen.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yes, three white soldiers would be the treat. Let's have some buying stampede kick the ignitor switch in the last hour - bleed a few bears. I've completed my last buying for today unless we hit up 300 points: DLX, BJS, DHI, PHM, CTX, TPC, WMB, SPN, DRE, BDN. This buying is actually hard work.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

My oceanic account is up $40K on the day so far

And that was early this morning

This buying is actually hard work.

That's why - when the time comes - I'd far rather waive the free intro period and pay you right from the start.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I did pierce the $100K mark in the last three days - now all I have to do is hang onto it during the next two trading days. I actually believe I'll tag on another $50K just for fun. So many bears and so few bulls - a classic scenario for a contrarian. I've been working on my next buy list and plan to exercise it tomorrow if we rally again. The more you have in the more you can win. Ah, the sweet smell of superlative bull manure is wafting across the board this evening. Some may find the odor repugnant but to a permabull it's like a bouquet of fragrant roses.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Now that we are over 930 on the SPX the next stop is 1050 without a pause. During a secular bull market, the cyclical, or shorter bull markets within them have gained 110% on average and lasted at least three years and often longer. We've only burnt 40% so far on the SPX from the March 9th lows. The economy is healthier than widely believed and exports will provide a bigger boost than in the past - helping the Q2 GDP. If the market is poised for a multiyear run, investors should be more aggressive about diving into stocks. I'm placing my money where my mouth resides and have already made 132 individual purchases since 6/26/09. The higher the market climbs the more I'll buy. It's the only way to make serious money.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Why do investors like Birchtree fare so well after downturns? I think a big reason is that, in downturns, fear begins to permeate the markets and investors wait on the sidelines even if very attractive values are available - just what is happening now. The fears of further declines are just too strong, and emotion overcomes rationality. By keeping emotions in check and focusing on fundamentals, investors like myself are able to pick up a varity of strong bargain-priced stocks while others have waited on the sidelines, and then reaped the benefits when fears subsided and others returned to the market. Bull runs start when things look bleak, and often keep going even though things get bleaker for several months longer. Now is the time to chase the market. Snort.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Morning Birch,
Last night I watched 'Confessions of a Shopaholic'

As soon as I saw the main Actress walking down the street in the very beginning of the movie - with a beautiful facial shot

I THOUGHT - WOW THERE'S BUZZ !!

So now I know what your daughter looks like and she's not only a beauty but is quite 'the Charm'

So that was my highlight of last night - I finally found the Match for Buzz.

I'd seen most of the other actresses which now represent Alevie, Lady, Silverbird, Debbie, Malyla, Mamikin and the rest....

but Buzz took a long time to finally hit the screen.

Well I'm hoping for the dust to settle cause I like soaking in the moments. You don't want to go too fast Birch cause the flowers smell wonderful and you have to take your time.

Well gotta run - thought about getting some Sticky Pants from you driving to work this morning. BUT - I like the freedom of skating around.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

As we come out of the downturn of the last four weeks I think we'll see that those willing to stick to the fundamentals rather than fear will pick up great values and eventually generate some nice returns, The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and I'm trying to do my best. Those that bet against the stock market's long term resiliency will end up regretting it. They'll be relagated back to catechism.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

As we come out of the downturn of the last four weeks I think we'll see that those willing to stick to the fundamentals rather than fear will pick up great values and eventually generate some nice returns,

That is the entire KEY to me being IN.

I am IN to WIN

Not only the last 4 weeks - but especially comparing the last 4 weeks to the last few years. Only in this light do we get the real picture of things to come and know when to take our stand.

The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and I'm trying to do my best. Those that bet against the stock market's long term resiliency will end up regretting it. They'll be relagated back to catechism.

I actually enjoy 'the experts' talking about the 'Wedge stuff' and all the various 'FACTORS' that prove the doom and gloom projection.

In the long run it only makes me look better - so talk all the garbage you want - and we'll see whether it was better to have fully invested and remained in the game or stayed in G

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think everyone should own a bear as a pet - the more bears the better. The time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell. We are a long, long way off from optimism. It doesn't look like I'll be doing much buying today unless we pop up later today. Profitability resides in the ride ahead. The way for investors to emerge victorious from any crisis is always the same: stick to a strategy that buys the stocks of good companies when they are cheap.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ah goody, a nice little rally to chase. Today I bought the unadorned but still lovely: ACI, SYY, CSE, BMS, HXL, BW, PXD, TNB, BVF, EXM, FFG, HBI, GT.

 

[Frixxxx]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Frixxxx,

I have no plans to dump my CIT - they will be saved to help keep small business working. It's small business that creates most of the jobs in this country.

Is there A HAIL MARY for this one?:worried:

Man, I'm glad you diversify, this one would have had me crying!!!!:blink:

Glad to see ya still out there.


Frixxxx

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think some private equity will come to the rescue - maybe even some soverign money might show up. If I don't take any profits this year I can always use a tax write off against ordinary income and carry forward the rest. I'm looking forward to another buying day tomorrow. There should be a buying panic, stampede on the near horizon. Then heads will spin and I'll just be pushed along to higher highs. I remember a time in the spring of 1983 when the market ran up 13 days in a row and that bull started in August 1982.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If my oceanic can pull down $32K today I will have back my devaluation of $155K from the last four weeks - all back in one week. And if I can get the rally I want I'm a buyer again today. During a secular bull market, the cyclical bull markets within them can gain 110% on avetrage and last for several years. That would mean several $M worth of buying.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If we can only close above SPX 945 today this will I think confirm that the last four weeks of negative action was only a correction pattern within a longer bull leg uptrend. I thought the possibility existed that the H&S pattern would be a failure. And this rally certainly has been strong with more legs to go and this may change the market sentiment and bring in some bullish money. We need a rock'em sock'em buying stampede - put Sarah Palin on tv and watch what happens. She is the hope of the endangered class. Some strong buy and holders are getting nervous at these higher levels and that's what makes a market. Will today track yesterday - don't be surprised if the bull traps a few more fury bears. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I decided to jump the gun today on the good CIT news before the hole in my pockets burn any deeper, so I bought: SSD, SXI, APL, RPM, CDI, ODC. If we rally up later this afternoon I'll be back to purchase further golden assets. My neighbor fell of his ladder and broke his heel in several places. I'll be doing his lawn and pool upkeep for the rest of the summer. If the VIX breaks into the 23 range we could see a rocket blast to finish off the superb week.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If we can only close above SPX 945 today this will I think confirm that the last four weeks of negative action was only a correction pattern within a longer bull leg uptrend.

I think the 'Confirmation' has already been proven.

The Bull needs some solid ground to move on and Consolidation is part of the process.

I'm just wondering what to do later on. If the guys above me remain on the AT then I won't feel as awkward when I hit 35%. But at some point I'm afraid it's going to feel 'too strange'.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The silly VIX did get down to 24.03 down 1.39 before firming a little. I believe we will break 24 before the close and volume will flow. If that happens hang on tight - I'll be spending myself into happiness. Or will OPEX create despair.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

put Sarah Palin on tv and watch what happens. She is the hope of the endangered class.

Make sure she's wearing RED - she looks good in red

I have a picture of her on my Thread that's one of her best.

Above everything else she's got to 'Ditch the Air Head' image she established during the Race. Her best bet by far is to highlight her natural features - her wit, charm, personality, Feminine Characteristics - that's what she really needs to highlight.

She needs to sound 'less political' and 'more human'. Stress that as a Wife, Mother, and Woman she had to be TRUE to 'herself' and she felt her role as a Governor was damaging those underlying values that are far too sacred. If she could shed a few tears with this and came across as broken BUT IT HAS TO REALLY COME ACROSS AS REAL AND NOT 'POLITICAL BS' - If she can do that 'She would melt the hearts of many'

Then she could end it with something like: 'Through my trials I've come out a stronger woman - and let that lead into her inspiration to let God use her to make this world a better place. That now more than ever she feels RIGHT FOR THE JOB ...

Anyway if you're going to Put her on:
1. Most importantly 'downplay the Political BS'
2. Make her 'beauty really stand out'
3. Make her REAL and HUMAN - so everyone connects with her
4. Don't forget 'The Tears' 'Brokeness' - this will melt our hearts
5. Stress the aspects of life that ALL AGREEE ARE FAR BEYOND POLITICS

And have her end with the sincerest gratitude for the Strength God has given her to be who she is and to have made it as far as she did; her warm appreciation for all the support she's received, and the never ending Goal to make our Country a better place; a stronger place, and one that the whole world comes to admire.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I didn't get to do any buying later in the day but I did manage to finally get my $100K in a week. Next week should be a barn burner - allowing me to surpass my individual purchases so far of 151 since 6/26. Being aggressive in a market that is poised for a multiyear run is the correct strategy.