Birchtree's Account Talk

[Boghie]

Finding Myself Behind the Trust Funders...

Hey Birch,

I backed out of the market a bit (10% G, 10% F). That is a normal - and aggressive - allocation for me. Aggressive = 80% in, Limp = 70% n, Wimp = 60% in. Last year I had many a week (or month) where I was only 30% in. Very rare...

Anyway, I look at the Members standing and see a bunch of Trust Funders ahead of me - yuk, yuk If my Fast Movin' Pig keeps running I will jump right over them. I was hoping today was the day, but alas, I needed a point or so and got just 80% of that...

All I can say is 'Let her boom'...

My guess is that we will crash once the tax and regulation boom hits. Going to grab all I can while the grabbin's is good...

 

[Gumby]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I believe this Thursday is non-farm payrolls again - look for -235,000 as a pleasant surprise. This recession has been an anomaly because productivity actually rose - that's not new to some of us. It does imply that companies cut costs dramatically, and if demand picks up it would suggest corporate profits could explode. Maybe that's what the rally has been all about. It's time to load up the truck May I please have another 100 point rally tomorrow - I'm ready to chase the momentum.

Me thinks you are being a tad bit optimistic...... but it could happen. The government may decide its time to manipulate the numbers some more. I don't see profits exploding. This nasty recession is not going to be over for some time.

 

[Show-me]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Or, profits will rise because we are coming off such low levels. A natural correction of things. Just remember two thirds consumer driven economy. And, remember the jobs number will no be high because companies are running out of people to "mass" layoff. They are down to skeleton crews. Read the WSJ about all of the Michigan folk getting ready to go on welfare because their unemployment is about to run out. Four Hundred bucks a month for a family of three....................uhg. Unemployment is propping up some of this spending. Read the WSJ about how the savings rate has risen to its highest in fifteen years, 6.9%. Read how the stimulus plan did not work because we saved the money and now they may not do another stimulus plan because of that.

Read between the lines, Goldilocks is still in a coma.

 

[kar_crazy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

karcrazy,

I gave my 1976 TR7 away a few years ago because I didn't have time to keep it up - I had it for twenty-five years and she was sweet. The guy I gave it to spent a little time with it and sold it to someone else. That person put it on Craig's list for sale. A man in Sarasota bought it for $500 and because I provided all the maintenance records with the car everything was still intact - he and his 15 year old son are going to redo the car for high school. So he called me to talk - and I told him for a car that was 33 he had a cherry. It's nice to see my Triumph continue to live and find a good home. Only men can understand. He now has the total history of the car and the expenses I endured keeping it running - and he can call me anytime to discuss any problems. It makes the heart feel good.

good to here father and son project , mine is father and daughter's project but they always get burned out before we get much done I have had my 68 camaro 27 years and almost ready for new paint again I hope next week. My back started acting up sunday , I am hoping next week I can get back on ole blue

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

karcrazy,

I gave my 1976 TR7 away a few years ago because I didn't have time to keep it up - I had it for twenty-five years and she was sweet. The guy I gave it to spent a little time with it and sold it to someone else. That person put it on Craig's list for sale. A man in Sarasota bought it for $500 and because I provided all the maintenance records with the car everything was still intact - he and his 15 year old son are going to redo the car for high school. So he called me to talk - and I told him for a car that was 33 he had a cherry. It's nice to see my Triumph continue to live and find a good home. Only men can understand. He now has the total history of the car and the expenses I endured keeping it running - and he can call me anytime to discuss any problems. It makes the heart feel good.

That's a GREAT Story Birch !!

That's exactly the kind of story I'd expect from you and wholly lines up with my image of who you are. That's also why you are such an incredible investor. They raised you right Birch and you definately got some of the best genes from both your parents.

In the remote event you would ever need some encouragement regarding the TSP Funds - see my post today.

Well I kind of feel like I'm in the hospital making rounds and checking up on the charts. I add a few notes and move on

good to here father and son project , mine is father and daughter's project but they always get burned out before we get much done I have had my 68 camaro 27 years and almost ready for new paint again I hope next week. My back started acting up sunday , I am hoping next week I can get back on ole blue

She will treasue these projects forever !!

I hope your back completely heals - take it easy my friend.

Well, I got some real work to do so GL all.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm stepping into the weakness and buying: GWR, CSX, WAB, BMY, BCS, VHI, OLN, KMT, AP, B. May be back later with more additions of wall flowers.

 

[amoeba]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I believe this Thursday is non-farm payrolls again - look for -235,000 as a pleasant surprise. This recession has been an anomaly because productivity actually rose - that's not new to some of us. It does imply that companies cut costs dramatically, and if demand picks up it would suggest corporate profits could explode. Maybe that's what the rally has been all about. It's time to load up the truck May I please have another 100 point rally tomorrow - I'm ready to chase the momentum.

No, you may not (have a 100 pt rally).

Wanna bet on those non-farms? I say last month revised downwards (to minus 360), and this month minus 385.

"if" demand picks up? who has money after the various stimuli packages are spent out? that's a big "if".

The rally is a bear market anomaly based on lower-than-warranted fear, not economic demand, not employment, not anything "real". This is alot of betting on positives in the next 6-9 months.

We shall see.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm helping market demand - just purchased a few more wall flowers: BTH, CMC, DLX, CSS, SUP. Gett'em while they are cheaper even though at this point in the cycle I'd prefer to chase.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

No, you may not (have a 100 pt rally).

Wanna bet on those non-farms? I say last month revised downwards (to minus 360), and this month minus 385.

"if" demand picks up? who has money after the various stimuli packages are spent out? that's a big "if".

The rally is a bear market anomaly based on lower-than-warranted fear, not economic demand, not employment, not anything "real". This is alot of betting on positives in the next 6-9 months.

We shall see.

Boy !! for some strange reason I thought of the Lion in the Wizzard of Oz when I read this.....


'Gettin' scared huh'??

'Put em' up - put em' up.

How 'bout I fight ya standing on one leg...

with my hand behind my back...

and I'll even close my eyes ...

Honestly - no idea where that came from

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

As fate would have it today would be a perfect day for a handful of dividend reinvestments - alas I only have one that is hitting my account. Perhaps I'll catch another $10 range on the C fund this Thursday. The ADC number will forcast tomorrow and ignite a strong rally - then I'll chase the market.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

As fate would have it today would be a perfect day for a handful of dividend reinvestments - alas I only have one that is hitting my account. Perhaps I'll catch another $10 range on the C fund this Thursday. The ADC number will forcast tomorrow and ignite a strong rally - then I'll chase the market.

Birch,

You frequently state that you are catching another purchase of the 'C Fund' in the $10 range. I thought I knew what you meant - catching another bunch of 'C Fund' shares on payday.

But, Thursday isn't a payday. Do you mean something else...

 

[KevinD]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

My contributions hit on Thursday before payday too.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Mine hits on a Monday. Atleast that is when it is visible in my account.

 

[turbo23dog]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thursday before payday for me.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The markets will be closed Friday so I assumed I would get the Thursday price - or they may wait until the following Monday. Just as long as I do my DCA I'm a happy camper.

 

[Frixxxx]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm helping market demand - just purchased a few more wall flowers: BTH, CMC, DLX, CSS, SUP. Gett'em while they are cheaper even though at this point in the cycle I'd prefer to chase.

Too much consumeristic picks here, Birch! You might have waited until the end of summer for these. I'll watch though, and serve me up the crow if I'm wrong.

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The rally is a bear market anomaly based on lower-than-warranted fear, not economic demand, not employment, not anything "real".

But, as has been noted elsewhere, government is all in and government always wins. In this case, the government is willing to go beyond past governments and will not stop at anything. Unlimited liquidity injections, financial manipulation, threats, false data and data manipulation/adjustment, actual gangsterism, special visits to the creditor, you name it. But Wall street sees money to be made by being part of the new game. What can you think of that could be a catalyst for a crash? Everything in the wall of worry has been thought of and talked about. And, this new government has now had time to look ahead at all eventualities and plan. No more surprises. Maybe a gradual decline of standard of living, and loss of stature in the world, but we're going to prop up 401Ks and home prices.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Frixxxx,

I've already made 45 purchases since last Friday. If you want to follow the list will be long and winding. I'm building my base for the next train ride.

 

[Frixxxx]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Frixxxx,

I've already made 45 purchases since last Friday. If you want to follow the list will be long and winding. I'm building my base for the next train ride.

Nothing but respect Birch....I was just saying this group.....If your numbers hold true to what I've seen in the last four years, I KNOW we are talking pennies and nickels. It was just this group that caught my eye....

Consumer Index is low this month....that's why I emphasized the "consumer" in my comment.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

We got a six to one gainers over losers. It'll be a good day to chase momentum and perhaps lock in some gains from yesterday. What to buy - oh I know... Snort.