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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"This week we now have the "Smart Money" indicator becoming less bullish while the "Dumb Money" indicator has maintained a very bullish posture. In a bear market environment, this widening divergence will favor the smart money. In other words, look for the market to roll over. In a bull market, such a divergence was of no consequence."
http://safehaven.com/article-13416.htm
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"SPX trend and reversal prospects."
http://safehaven.com/article-13428.htm
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch,
It really does not matter to me whether we're heading down and keep diving - or whether we're just taking a little break and keep going up - or whether we go sideways for awhile and do nothing.
I've resigned to the MARKETS - much like you and will simply remain in G Fund over the next few months or more - just as you will remain fully invested.
But I wondered if you'd do me a little favor on behalf of the general MB. Ya see Birch - the past few months are a time you can throw in here and there over the years to come.
Even if we would obtain new lows a few months from now - there is no way possible we can take these past few months away and your ability to remind all of us to BE IN TO WIN - THAT HESITATION IS COSTLY - AND THAT THE ONES WHO CAUTIOUSLY STAYED ON THE LILLY PAD MISSED OUT ON THE 35% GAIN ACQUIRED BY OTHERS
Anyway - the rest of us have a tendency to forget these details and I'd like to know I can count on you to remind us occasionally.
Thanks in advance,
Steady
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
All the history lessons have been posted. It's now time to concentrate on the future. I'm wondering how long it will now take to regain 1575 on the SPX. I'm satisfied with this sideways movement for the next two months so that I can get my prime dividends reinvested at lower prices.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I'd say let this be the MB Motto from this day forward.
Forget all the BS - everybit of it - and let's start all over
focusing only on the future and sticking with our Investments.
WELL PUT BIRCH !!!
2 Admissions just arrived .... so later man
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I think the Dow really wants to test the resistance line at the 200 day MA at 8844 - may happen early next week and then 9000 is just around the corner. Holding long and staying strong. We could take back the give back from yesterday with the pump up after 1500 hours - a bullish stampede is a wonderful thing to behold. It can be especially rewarding.
Handballer
Active member
JTH
Well-known member
McDuck
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch, You should hire Brent Long as an consultant to manage your vast portfolio.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
The market will tend to move in ways that confound the consensus. That is a truism. The market didn't pause much on the way down, so why should one expect it to pause on the way up. The technical principle of symmetry would suggest that the recovery will mirror the fall. I think the meltup is starting to kick into full gear. This rally is certainly shaping up to be extremely powerful. Now if I can make just $42K this week I'll have all of my $112K back in three weeks time. SPX of 936 is just around the corner. The NYSE Com posit did break the 6000 level and that is very positive in my view.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"I have not completely resolved the issue of new bull market versus bear market rally. My own work suggests bear market rally, but I do acknowledge that the persistence of the bulls is very reminiscent of 1995 or 2003, (Birchtree has been saying this same thing) when sentiment got stuck in the bullish extreme while prices continued higher. This is the kind of price action that emboldens the bulls and demoralizes the bears and can be self-fulfilling leading to higher prices."
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/article-10997.html
Pschiffdicpal
Member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Bman,
I have found out whos been feedin Ferdtheturd the last few mounths.. its PPT ya the plunge protection team, now whos that... well it the pres, tres sec, SEC chair and of course Fed chairman... wow.. and you though it was just 11 trillion on the sideline. more then that if you got a printing press.
the following is taken from http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/hultberg/2003/0430.html
The Federal Government will do anything to avert deflation, keep the Dow and the dollar from crashing, and keep gold and silver from skyrocketing. Using the PPT allows it to do all three in a simple, secretive way. It's a perfect tool for the disingenuous Machiavellians who run Washington today. As stated, I have no proof of any offshore funding, and no Deep Throat contact has informed me that the Treasury has bumped the PPT's role into a vehicle to inject substantial amounts of "new" dollars into the economy. But such a role is as natural as members of a Mafia family operating neighborhood protection rackets. It fits the personas of the participants, and it fulfills their needs.
Pschiffdicpal
Member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I guess 670 on the s&p and 6600 on the Dow was has low has it gos for now....but how high is the high???
one more item about the PPT
Was George Stephanopoulos lying about the PPT?
So you don’t think that the Plunge Protection Team exists?
Perhaps you think that this is the half-baked notion of some crazy conspiracy theorists?
Then you need to read this.
A report by Sprott Asset Management quotes George Stephanopoulos (top advisor to President Clinton) as saying the following on ABC’s “Good Morning America” on September 17, 2001:
Well, what I just want to talk about for a few minutes is the various efforts that are going on in public and behind the scenes by the Fed and other government officials to guard against a free-fall in the markets. You reported just a while ago that the Fed has lowered the overnight interest rates, will put about $80 billion into the market. In addition, the SEC, the Securities and Exchange Commission, has relaxed the rules for companies on whether or not they can buy back their stock in case they start to fall.
And dozens of companies, including big companies like Intel and Cisco have announced that they would buy back their stock if necessary. Third, there will be some trading curbs in effect today. If the market drops by about 1,100 points, they will probably suspend trading for a while. And perhaps most important, there’s been – the Fed in 1989 created what is called a plunge protection team, which is the Federal Reserve, big major banks, representatives of the New York Stock Exchange and the other exchanges, and there – they have been meeting informally so far, and they have kind of an informal agreement among major banks to come in and start to buy stock if there appears to be a problem.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"If euphoria and hope sweep the investment community, everyone jumps on the rocket and the sky is the limit. Heliocentric Mercury and Saggittarius, combined with the first passage of the 13-year Jupiter-Neptune conjunction cycle, continued to power many financial and stock markets to new multi-month highs last week."
http://mmacycles.com/
Boghie
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
PMan,
When you think of it, spending (and probably wasting) lots of printed fiat money to keep the financial system 'liquid' isn't a bad plan. Any money created by Bernanke seems to me to be money rather well made
. Bernanke seems to know what he is doing. The panic has subsided.
I have different feelings about the low impact ‘stimulus’ blow. The coke addict CongressCritters need to feel the heat. Note how our financial system retested the panic (and even reached new lows) when Congress decided to buy more blow with plastic cash from China:toung:
I am not worried about knowledgeable folks placing breaks on an economic dive, I am extremely worried about our brilliant Congressional money managers wanting to do something - anything - to help (or to help their little local smurfs).Similar threads
