-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com
-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
div>
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Well it's official - $479K in nine weeks of work - actually just holding my positions. I made $89K on the week so still no Monica cigar. One of these days I'll achieve a modicum of success and nail that $100K week - it could happen next week if real panic buying sets in. Well I did catch a $10.84 price on the C fund and I would surmise that will be the last one in that range - now on to the $11 range.Last edited:
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Chart gaps are part of a potentially bullish technical picture. Gaps exist above several markets - gaps that could be filled before or after a correction."
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/article10525.html
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Let's not worry about whether it's a new bull market or just a countertrend rally at this moment. The reality is it was time to go higher. That's all that mattered. Let me also remind you that at the lows we saw the greatest bull bear spread of pessimism ever recorded. If you couldn't go long at that moment in time you never could. (That renegade contrarian Birchtree went way long). Of course, you have that beast known as emotion playing on the minds of the masses, and thus having the guts to go long wasn't easy and we totally respect that." (Thanx).
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/article10558.html
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
If we are in a bear market rally these prolonged suckers' rallies tend to be especially vicious as they force everyone back into the market before cruelly slamming everyone onto the rocks again. Ferdinand, shall we run for cover - not yet we have gaps to fill first. Snort.
caymanbrac12
Member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch, snort all you want but it sure is nice too play the game right now that the market lets you. Up one day down the next and skip the down days like today with my only cost being a slight tranaction fee and not have the constraints that idiot Long put in - this is for people who like to make choices with their OWN hard earned money that was taken away. Imagine not being able to control your own money especially for the young guys who rely on this for their full retirement. You should have every option available to HELP YOU MAKE MONEY. INSTEAD THEY PUT UP EVERY IMPEDIMENT YOU CAN THINK OF.
With the setup allowed you really can't even do a true dollar cost average and remember when I was watching the $BKX , that worked out pretty well - refer to previous post when I mentioned FITB and HBAN for example among others. I will take the money but I still feel the game is rigged and nothing but a house of cards but I will take the money and run. I'm hedged to the hilt and I truly hope I'm wrong but retail numbers sucked and I have this eerie feeling I'm under a rock slide that is on the way.
This might be the time to talk to the ol' professional about a "slight" degree of paranoria.
Especially when things are going too well. :nuts:
cayman
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"While I believe that the bull market has begun, a strong rally requires corrections with rising lows" says Donald Ratajczak of Morgan Keegan. "The one-day corrections we have had since March 9 do not provide that type of developing support."
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"The strong rally we have seen since March 9th market bottom has pushed the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) lower over recent weeks. Friday, the VIX reached an intra-day low of 31.19. As you can see in the following chart, 30 is a key level for this indicator. We would anticipate that if the VIX touches down to 30, it would mark a reversal point for a short-term bounce higher in the VIX in line with the markets selling off."
http://www.bigtrends.com/articles/weeklyoutlook/438-weekly-market-outlook-may-11th-2009.html
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"In June 1932 market players saw illusory light at the end of the tunnel. In two months, the market rose almost vertically, climbing 110%. For four more months it held the gain and then, confronted with continued unrelieved bad news, sank steadily for six months so that one year after the rally began it was up only 35%. But this is the key: by then - a year later - there really was light at the end of the tunnel and the market rose again, 130% in eight months. And this time it did not give it back."
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/article10590.html
Handballer
Active member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Hey Birch, if you must have a Monica cigar, make sure it hasn't been "used.":embarrest:
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch,
Most of us are on the surface - changing with the winds and tides and having a hard time knowing if we should go in or jump out. Reading through all the posts it's hard to know what to do because people are frequently changing their minds.
So at times like this I think we need to focus on someone with experience; who doesn't change from one day to the next; who can pretty well tell us all the 'bottom line truth'.
SO - I'll ask ya point blank:
Should be be BULLISH ? and keep our money FULLY INVESTED
OR - should we bail and give in to our trembling nervous emotions??
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I'm still bullish and all my money remains invested. I have more dividends due in the next two weeks and about 65 coming due in June. So my sacrifice is to take the hits during this consolidation or correction because better days are ahead. After this correction is completed I'll probably transfer my oceanic account to BAC and exercise my margin availability and start a serious buying program. I don't think we'll actually drop that much more - besides this bear has taken $116K out of my pocket so to speak already this week. Why can't I do that on the upside? I was out of town yesterday and everywhere I went the parking lots were full - that goes against consensus opinion that the consumer is dead so profitability resides in the ride ahead.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"With the market falling 5% over the last few days, we wanted to check in on a common breadth indicator that tracks the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages. Currently, 82% of stocks in the S&P 500 are still trading above their 50-days, which is still higher than the peak readings we saw during prior rallies over the last year."
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/be...ge-of-stocks-above-50day-moving-averages.html
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
My TSP/GPS system is alerting me to the fact that the lanes ahead are slowly clearing. The lily pad still has plenty of room for those concerned about capital preservation rather than capital appreciation. C'mon SPX 900 by today's close - now is the chance to step on the F fund. I mean don't you all admire a market that goes up on bad news - makes it confusing doesn't it.
poolman
Top Return 2008
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Why don't you go to the F - Fund Birch.. LOL..... Rockmon...
Elgallo
Member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I'm with Birchtree and fully invested. Yep it's freakin scary being as close to retirement as I am but I aint sellin out.
I see a lot of paralysis by analysis here on the MB and for those of you on the lily pad I hope your still at least buying C, S or I during this fire sale.
Now where did I put my Valium!Similar threads
