Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The stock market, especially in the small to mid capitalization range, has been melting up now for several weeks. The cash on the sidelines, based on money market funds divided by the S&P 500, is now at 54%, down from 66% at its peak. The level is still more than double where it was back in March 2003, when the stock market took off after the statue fell in Baghdad." "All we can tell you is that when a significant portion of the cash on the sidelines gets re-deployed toward stocks, the stock market could conceivably soar 30% or more, just like it did back in 2003. Such a move would put the Dow over 10K."

http://navellier.com/commentary/weekly_marketmail.aspx

http://www.mmacycles.com

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Bulls Remain in Control"

http://safehaven.com/article-13199.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"We do not want to fight this momentum. I believe we could enter an acceleration upward, almost a buying panic, in which to sell into."

http://safehaven.com/article-13200.htm

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
This is just a quick follow up from Lady's Thread. She has the right to not have me impinge on her space and so I won't.

Your Permabull status in no way keeps the overwheling bulk of members and guests from reading your posts - and all the more coming to your thread.

Lady is simply one of the few (besides me) that has finally conceded that: 'AT THIS POINT YOU MAY BE RIGHT'. Of course I was most influenced by Adam Hamilton - who coincidentally stacks up with you. This is only because I can not afford to 100% put my trust in anyone on this MB - because I can't afford to put YOU or anyone else in that position. You don't want me angry at you for failing me and in the end it's not you but anyone who choses to follow you. This is in large part what Sugar was constantly raving about - She was bothered by your super strong example and what appeared to be the tendency of others to follow you - even if that meant losing 60% of their face value. But BIRCH - let me set the RECORD STRAIGHT - your insights and your thread have always been and will always remain the most popular thread on this MB.

A year ago you may have sounded like an idiot to some :embarrest::embarrest::cheesy: but not now - NOW MORE THAN EVER YOU ARE THE KING.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Alrighty then, but I still haven't made my first ever $100K week - until then I'm simply average in my prowess.

 

[robo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Did somebody ask a question about selling - yes I sold $172K worth of stock in July'08 dumping my commodity stocks at the top of the CRB charts - and then began reinvesting those monies into 45 different toxic waste financial stocks via dollar cost averaging. And no I don't like to sell - I could have used your help this year with my capital gains taxes. That $172K was the profit - that does not include the principal. I also put in another $500K during our bottoms last fall and purchased 432 individual stock positions via DCA. Now I'm rewarded with a $363K gain in seven weeks.

Yeah and I'm really Elvis Presley!!! The proof is in the pudding I guess - since we will never know for sure....

Robo

 

[Medic72]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

wow, i don't know why robo dislikes you so much birch (someone is missing the profit i think), but he asks you not to post bs stuff on coolhands page, then he brings it here lol, interesting....!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Robo is actually a good guy and used to really post interesting information but is now busy in other places - he's probably having an off day. I don't take any of it very seriously unless he lived next door. No one likes to have a winner when they are left behind. I'm critcized for riding the bear market down but I have years of income tied up in my stock positions and since I reinvest all my income you need to own stocks. And I had the resources to buy the bottom when generational lows were available - and I jumped in with both feet and who knows where my oceanic account LMV will be in another 9 months - but I suspect it will be very close to $3M. This is a prime example why I very seldom highlihgt my TSP account for fear of miffing off many less fortunate.

 

[kymtngal]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree,

In response to your question, I moved all to the C in May 2000. Prior to that I had it split between the C 80% and the F 20%. In July 2001 I changed my contributing to C 50%, S 25% and F 25%. When the I came along I switched my contributing 25% from the F to the I. I probably could have done better had I watched more. I retire in January 2010 and most would say I should have put it all in the G...but I plan to leave it til I have to take the minimum. I just wish I could have put a higher % into it, but supporting college costs and helping with grandkids...LIFE happens. Wouldn't trade a minute of it though...you can't take it with you!

 

[robo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

wow, i don't know why robo dislikes you so much birch (someone is missing the profit i think), but he asks you not to post bs stuff on coolhands page, then he brings it here lol, interesting....!

I posted here to keep it out of Coolhand's thread. As for the profit - Well, the Market needs to rally another 90% just so buy and hold folks like Birchtree can get even. The math is pretty easy..... Since you have NO idea of my current investment positions you are assuming like Birchtree does....

Take care!

 

[robo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Robo is actually a good guy and used to really post interesting information but is now busy in other places - he's probably having an off day. I don't take any of it very seriously unless he lived next door. No one likes to have a winner when they are left behind. I'm critcized for riding the bear market down but I have years of income tied up in my stock positions and since I reinvest all my income you need to own stocks. And I had the resources to buy the bottom when generational lows were available - and I jumped in with both feet and who knows where my oceanic account LMV will be in another 9 months - but I suspect it will be very close to $3M. This is a prime example why I very seldom highlihgt my TSP account for fear of miffing off many less fortunate.

Soon mine will be 5 million since I didn't ride the last two bear Markets down..... What's the point of your 3 million that should be 6 million! Heck - If you would have listened to Henry you would have 5 million like me instead of 3 million. I know you are much smarter then all those guys that went to cash during the Bear Market and Buy and Hold is the way to go.

Generational lows - a comment you took from Henry, but we shall have to wait to see if it's true...




Ok -your turn! The point is - you go around and agitate folks in other threads like I'm doing here and it has NO value to anyone. I'll stop by since I know you just need some attention and it's hard to get when you are a buy and hold investor. Just DCA and hold - it's great advice Dennis, just great!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

My oceanic and tugboat accounts will both be back sooner than a 90% required return - primarily because I bought all the way down at lower and lower prices accumulating more shares that are now geared for a positive return - that's why it was so easy to make $363K in one account and $120K in another account. All it takes is courage and confidence to absorb the pain when all others are running away out of abject fear. They are now getting their reward and I'm collecting mine. Dollar cost averaging is always the redeemer at the depths of a bear market - so I gave back some today not unexpected. Tomorrow could easily be a barn burner helping me finally make my $100K week.

 

[robo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

My oceanic and tugboat accounts will both be back sooner than a 90% required return - primarily because I bought all the way down at lower and lower prices accumulating more shares that are now geared for a positive return - that's why it was so easy to make $363K in one account and $120K in another account. All it takes is courage and confidence to absorb the pain when all others are running away out of abject fear. They are now getting their reward and I'm collecting mine. Dollar cost averaging is always the redeemer at the depths of a bear market - so I gave back some today not unexpected. Tomorrow could easily be a barn burner helping me finally make my $100K week.

Yeah Dennis, you are the man! You are one of smartest and best investors I have every read comments from. Trust me, I have probably tried over 100 paid services and none have ever matched up to you… You are amazing and have investment abilities are far beyond all those guys on CNBC and even Kudlow… You are the Man!

Take Care and I”LL BE BACK!


Look at all the value we are providing to TSPtalk readers....

I don't think you got my point since you have been doing this crap on the board for years.

Thanks for the comment - "Robo is actually a good guy", but I dislike the Bearshit just like the Bullshit and you assume I'm ticked because I'm not making money.... Amazing!

Just more Bullshit - and with that I'm done....


Oh - for the record, I'm not having a bad day. I'm actually having a very good day!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well I sincerely hope you will keep me on your e-mail list - you know I'm appreciative. I'm glad you are making your green - there is plenty of room inside the investing arena. Now if Coolhand requests that I not post in his thread I'll honor that - but you my friend are not old enough yet to be my dad so I don't have to listen to you. Of course unless you genuflect.

 

[robo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well I sincerely hope you will keep me on your e-mail list - you know I'm appreciative. I'm glad you are making your green - there is plenty of room inside the investing arena. Now if Coolhand requests that I not post in his thread I'll honor that - but you my friend are not old enough yet to be my dad so I don't have to listen to you. Of course unless you genuflect.

genuflect

Main Entry: gen·u·flect
Pronunciation: \ˈjen-yə-ˌflekt\
Function: intransitive verb

Etymology: Late Latin genuflectere, from Latin genu knee + flectere to bend — more at knee
Date: 1630
1 a: to bend the knee b: to touch the knee to the floor or ground especially in worship

2: to be servilely obedient or respectful
— gen·u·flec·tion \ˌjen-yə-ˈflek-shən\ noun

I don't genuflect, but I do the Funky Chicken.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6e9uk0fMNow


No - Coolhand is to cool for that. I will be commenting on your manue from here on out.

You don't listen to anyone you only give advice. Buy for the long haul and DCA....

Great advice during a Bull Market and the DCAing also works during Bears. You are the man!

Robo

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've got two days to reach the zero line on the tracker - today will certainly help the cause. Is today the harbinger of a buying panic to come? I mean the acceleration upward does feel good - like having a warm wind in my face riding the Ducati through the valleys and the current angle of ascent is getting steeper. Not that I would want to try the hill at Franconia Notch in New Hampshire. But the ride up Mt. Washington is doable.

 

[XL-entLady]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well, Birch, I certainly did my part to help your cause by going to 100% G yesterday. I'm a contrarian indicator.

Lady

 

[Medic72]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

sniff sniff... can ya smell it!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Did you C4 a few members out of your way today moving up the tracker. I may have passed a few myself. I guess today could be regarded as a mild melt-up when we hit +230 points on the Dow - perhaps tomorrow we'll get serious.

 

[Medic72]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

not sure, those i funders behind me might make it a tight race

i should have locked in 10 though. (i hope)