Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
I've got two days to reach the zero line on the tracker - today will certainly help the cause. Is today the harbinger of a buying panic to come? I mean the acceleration upward does feel good - like having a warm wind in my face riding the Ducati through the valleys and the current angle of ascent is getting steeper. Not that I would want to try the hill at Franconia Notch in New Hampshire. But the ride up Mt. Washington is doable.
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Birch, I've cut my return from -13.5% to -6.5% this month. So I am also very happy. But let's not count our tadpoles until they hatch.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Now that the Kress interim cycle of 12 year has bottomed in December the market is free of all intermediate term cyclical constraints and should be able to commence a new cyclical bull market heading into 2009. Moreover, the important 10-year cycle is peaking in 2009 and should also support a recovery in the first half of the new year. This time, unlike 2008, the three nearest major Kress cycles including the 6-year and 10-year will be in harmony on the upside instead of at odds. And the key 6-year cycle bias in 2009 will be up instead of down. The VIX is again targeting 30 to coincide with a SPX of 1100. I'm waiting now on the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction, a 14 year cycle, approaching in late May through mid-July. Jupiter and Neptune are normally very optimistic and hopeful about the future. I wonder what Nenner has to say these days. Two more really good days and I will come very close to my desire for a $100K week. As long as we don't see a session where the decliner to advancers and down to up volume doesn't give us a ratio of 5 to 1 or higher on both indicators the likelihood of a retest in the near term is lessened. And of course as long as the bulls remain below 55% I feel safe.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I believe we just completed the intraday correction and should gain momentum into the close - at least that's the plan. But a blind side could happen at any time or the market could get some blast off fuel from the sidelines so I'm in regardless and will not be getting out any time soon.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

excellent, thats what i wanted to hear!

in it to win it!

id love to see 890 close myself, or higher :)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

birch did you see my post about v fibb lol. thought you would like that one :) anyway, we didnt get the up we wanted, but we didnt get a down either, which is a big plus.

it was a good month, lets hope next month is better!
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The MACD is a great tool when the market is trending, but loses its predictive powers when prices move sidways or attempt to form a divergence. Pay attention to the VIX for a break of previous support at 33.76 and forget the MACD for now. Waiting for a large up day to mark the top of the move that allows some to take profits - and then we continue to head higher.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

It was the NYSE leading the pack today producing a few valuable dollars. The VIX did close down 1.20 to close at 35.30. The 30 target is just down the road a little further.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I did fall a little short in the last eight weeks only making $390K off the March bottom. The last two weeks have been pretty much rolling correction weeks so I'm lucky to make anything - but I did. I'm seriously thinking of transferring my account from Merrill to the Bank of America investment platform.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

If I transfer my oceanic account BofA will advance me $1.4M as buying power in a margin account and only charge me 3% which is tax deductable. Boy I can surely damage myself with that kind of money especially in a new cyclical bull market. I may wait and see if we get any kind of serious retest of the March lows - if we nail Dow 9300 nothing is coming and the margin buying power will be even greater. I've already crunched the numbers and I really don't think interest rates are going up anytime soon. There still remain so many wall flowers that need a portfolio home and I got the room. I'll make the move within the next two months.

http://www.baisidirect.com
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Whats your theory on why the rocket fuel hasn't come in off the sideline? What are they waiting for?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The hedge funds are waiting to see if there is going to be a retest of the March 9th lows - if we don't get one then the coast is clear - the retest will happen when they are all back in and that will be their punishment. They all recognize that hesitation can be expensive. I think we get the correction in June that would compare favorably with the March '03 final bottom. But then again the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction would be in force in late May through mid-July so the correction may not happen until August or so - heck we may not get anything deeper than 4% which was typical of the 3,000 point 2003 bull run. Let'em eat cake.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I know it's a real stretch to ask you to think with any negativity :) but I'm wondering if you have an idea on what an unforeseen, un-priced-in economic or financial catalyst might be that would cause a huge move out of the market into cash at this point?

Absent a war, it appears everyone knows or anticipates all possible bad financial and economic news and also knows that anything that arises will be dealt with by the electronic creation of money. And that's priced in. :confused:

That statement by a CEO that "Government is all in and Government always wins" seems key and means that only minor corrections are probable at this point.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Anyone who wanted out of the market has gotten out - those that were left are hard core financial warriors and they cannot be swayed by emotion. I actually had two of my companies increase their dividends this week: Amerigas Ptnrs (APU) and UGI Corp (UGI) so there are good things happening. I'm thinking about how long and on what I could spend $1M of buying power. We are still 7,000 points from the old highs and stocks are very much on the value table. The Transports did overcome major double resistance and are now poised to rally further with no over head resistance. What if the market doesn't correct, what if it just continues to climb? The recession could be over by July. The economic climate is being transformed from bleak to bullish at one of the most rapid rates ever. This could be a long train ride and profitability resides in the ride ahead - and I ain't getting off until we reach NYC.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

So far we've had a stock market recovery and not an economic recovery. The stock market moves first and then the data follows. Better days ahead as a generic comment when both the equity and credit markets are healing in simultaneous fashion.

"Two S&P 500 sectors - Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Technology (XLK) - have actually just broken above their 200-day moving averages. This signals the end to a long term downtrend and the confirmation of an uptrend. It's also a positive for the overall market that two cyclical sectors (one that is extremely tied to the consumer) are the first ones to break above their 200-days."

http://safehaven.com/article-13245.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

From Henry To.

"It would now appear that the rally off the March low was significantly stronger than the rally on March 17, 2003 and immediately after. Based on valuation, sentiment, and various technical indicators, as well as the amount of cash sitting on the sidelines - the market was much more oversold than at any time since probably July 1982 - a period that marked the beginning of a 17 yearbull market in US stocks." If we run like we did in August 1982 I need to buy as much stock as I quickly can - it takes money to make money. With a possible buying power of $1.4M that amount will increase even more as the rally continues. It's simply the old pyramid scheme and legal. Buy all the way up and keep earning more buying power. I might have to get done work sooner than I had anticipated.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Whoa Ferdinand you're really squeezing them Smokies this morning. Pending home sales up 3%. Could this be a 300 point day?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

And we've only been open for 30 minutes - the 200-day MA for the Dow is at 9073 and the SPX is at 963. Money will flow like bear blood when we reach those levels - the Dow Theory buy signal is just around the corner. With 15 billion shares hanging tough on short positions - that will provide a mighty fuel and could last for months. Snort. Rawhide.
 
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