Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

A strange day indeed - my WAB was +4.00 to $34.82, for High-Speed Rail. DIN was +3.19 to $22.32 - IHOP celebrates 50 states in 50 years opening a new restrauant in Vermont. And a few more swingers but no sense in being braggadocio. I'm still worried we might blow right through the $10 C fund price leaving me in the dust.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch and Steady,

First off...thanks to both of you for your valuable (and often hilarious) running commentary. I signed on, after the past 2 years of being an observing poacher, mostly to catch you both in one thread where you actually agree on something:cheesy:

I have only been a federal employee since 97 and began actively managing my TSP account in 2000. I have been a fan of many members of this board and have valued alot of the insights into investing. I, and a few friends, made some serious cash over the years listening to everyones advice.

I lost some serious ching last year but have since made over 20%. Like you guys, and many others here, I too, now think we are at the beginning of a long bull run, I am just looking forward to another low buy in. Give me another 5-7% drop and I'm all on smalls. Sitting on the G for now with 1 transfer left.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Welcome Mcqlives! You came to the right thread if you're bullish. Just be careful about using that G-word around Birch. :)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Mcqlives said:
Birch and Steady,

First off...thanks to both of you for your valuable (and often hilarious) running commentary. I signed on, after the past 2 years of being an observing poacher, mostly to catch you both in one thread where you actually agree on something:cheesy:

I have only been a federal employee since 97 and began actively managing my TSP account in 2000. I have been a fan of many members of this board and have valued alot of the insights into investing. I, and a few friends, made some serious cash over the years listening to everyones advice.

I lost some serious ching last year but have since made over 20%. Like you guys, and many others here, I too, now think we are at the beginning of a long bull run, I am just looking forward to another low buy in. Give me another 5-7% drop and I'm all on smalls. Sitting on the G for now with 1 transfer left.
Click to expand...

The Family Grows ! Welcome Aboard ! ;)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Mcqlives said:
Birch and Steady,

Wow !!! Thank you !!!!
First thanks for posting your first message in Birch's home and making him the First name you typed.

There is certainly NO ONE MORE 'BULL' THAN HIM. I have long seen him as 'my superior' and been swept away by his wealth of info over the years. He honestly is 'my brother' in real life in that much of what he's been through and that largely molded who and what he is are pretty much identical to my own life.

First off...thanks to both of you for your valuable (and often hilarious) running commentary. I signed on, after the past 2 years of being an observing poacher, mostly to catch you both in one thread where you actually agree on something:cheesy:

Birch is an unmovable ROCK - so over the past 2 years it may have been somewhat annoying to hear these shouts of Bullish Enthusiasum - but I would agree - by weighing everything his input is priceless.

I am way more your 'chill and go with the flow' - don't take anything too seriously EXCEPT FRIENDSHIPS AND RELATIONSHIPS kind of guy that's largely learning to be (hopefully) a better investor.

With me however - I would have to give all the credit to the numerous Members that brought me to life. So whatever you saw in me - and however I entertained you - in all sincereity WAS MAINLY a reflection of the good others brought out and the deeper and powerfully meaningful bonds.

I have only been a federal employee since 97 and began actively managing my TSP account in 2000. I have been a fan of many members of this board and have valued alot of the insights into investing. I, and a few friends, made some serious cash over the years listening to everyones advice.

You'll become a FAR BIGGER FAN by making yourself known (and I'm really glad you have) and being actively engaged.

I'm thrilled for you - and your friends - very few things compare to making 'serious cash' from well planned investments.

I lost some serious ching last year but have since made over 20%. Like you guys, and many others here, I too, now think we are at the beginning of a long bull run, I am just looking forward to another low buy in. Give me another 5-7% drop and I'm all on smalls. Sitting on the G for now with 1 transfer left.
Click to expand...

Being in G - hopefully means you've avoided the Major Loss many others fell victum too. It could also mean you've missed out on the BIGGEST and MOST RAPID GAIN in 70 or more years.

I'm stuck in G and can't move to High Risk until 5/1 - so a 7 -10% drop about then would be wonderful. Part of me feels it's simply way better to resign - and go fully in - and maybe that makes me a BULL. But in all truthfulness - it's way more the recognition that being out (even briefly) eliminates potiential gains and at this point I am fully convinced that going in and staying in is the BEST POSSIBLE WAY to end up with the most.

Well thanks again for making yourself known - and don't be a stranger.

Steady
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've been in 85%G and 15% CSI since last thursday and I think there is an oscillation forming near 840-850. I have been 100%G for almost 2 weeks before last week and missed the rally. I read the chart and study the market, but because this market completely ignores any hard data, I couldnt decide when to jump back in stock. I'll probably just go all in stock on May 1.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks for all the warm welcomes.

As for my 20%, I freely admit I have been extremely lucky in my transfers this year. After initially following many into the 2nd bailout flush I have managed to be in on several nice, but short, bull runs and to be in the G when the bears came out. I wish I had a system to share but all I have done is look at the dollar, watch the transportations and financials, and keep a wary eye on the asian markets.

On my non TSP side, I have several mutual type accounts focusing on developing markets and then a few of the old stand-by stocks like Wal-mart and Busch. I have had these stocks since the late 80's so when Birch talks about rolling dividends I am 100% with him. The only thing that makes me happier than the dividend payments is when we get a stock split. I hope to see this start happening again in the next few years.

Overall I am a bull but am concerned about the next few weeks.

Thanks again for the welcomes and good luck to all!
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

We should have a throw over on the double resistance lines for the Transports. A value of 3715 will trigger a secondary Dow Theory buy signal. The primary will arrive with a Dow of 9035. Snort.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

OK...OK! I just hope when I get back in that I don't have to step in all the Bull $#!^ that is getting dropped this afternoon. Hopefully it gets shove out of the way by some bear claws (and not the pastry kind):D
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Fortunately this thread usually has the sweet smell of superlative bull manure wafting around especially now that spring has arrived and the barn doors are opened up. To me it smells alot like the scent of green money.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Mcqlives said:
OK...OK! I just hope when I get back in that I don't have to step in all the Bull $#!^ that is getting dropped this afternoon. Hopefully it gets shove out of the way by some bear claws (and not the pastry kind):D
Click to expand...


You might have to get some waders Mcqlives :) gonna be deep if you wait any longer to walk through the bull barn :)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I have 'em ready! I hope you guys are right but am still being cautious (probably too much so). I like how the transportations are sitting but the financials are so screwed up because of the stimulus that my gut can't trust the numbers.

Birch, thanks for the use of your thread and here's to a great weekend for everyone!
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Unfortunately I'm with Bullit on this one, how do you price a promissary note, based on a promissary note, from a promissary note, backed by a busted insurance guarantee and all held up with a stack of foreclosed houses and upside down house payments, with the risk calcluted using a computer program that didn't take risk into account??
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I was holding out for hope that my oceanic account would break even during this sideways correction week - but I pulled down $10K with the help of my restaurants. I'm now up $363K for the last seven weeks. And I caught a $10.10 price on the C fund - now if I can just get one more in the $10 range after the next two weeks - but I may just not be that lucky. I'm back close to $120K on my tugboat account. Long live the new bull market and may the faithful keep their gains - I'm not looking for a serious give back until sometime in June. That will compare favorably to the March '03 bottom retest.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Alrighty then let the games begin. Short-selling declined at the NYSE and Nasdaq in the first half of April. In the exchanges' latest twice a month statistics, the number of short-selling positions at the NYSE not yet closed out, known as short interest, fell 2.9% in the period ended April 15. The positions stood at 15,703,379,301 shares from a revised 16,173,689,617 shares in the period ended March 31. It would appear the shorts are holding tight and that's simply marvelous because when they do cover it'll be bottle rocket explosive all trying to get through such a small peep hole. Their loss in a bull market has no cap - it's limitless. All those shares that are borrowed eventually must be bought back - punish the rascals and punish them some more.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The NYSE AD (breadth) MCSUM is sitting at +789.66 up from a March low of -1000 and that low level happened to be an intermediate term bull divergence. The highest MCSUM level since 6/2007. The TICK money flow is positive and a a new all time high. I've got to stop with these fantasies but millions has such a nice ring to it. Honestly, by the time the chart slaves are done (even my friend Robo has finally turned the cheek) there is the possibility of an hellacious melt up day Monday to fully reverse the prior Monday cave in of 289 points - if I were bearish at the point in the cycle I've have to fo on medication to ease up on my anxiety level. I can only loose what I have but a short can loose to the sky unless they cover. A 300 point melt up day would take them jokers one step closer to religion.
 
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