Birchtree's Account Talk

[Boghie]

This is Truly an Ugly Market

Birch,

This moronic market has to be traded, not invested in. This is truly an ugly market. And, the IFT directors blew our ability to trade effectively.

And, I don't mean day trading.

I do mean the ability to reallocate into any fund at least weekly. Too many days of huge dumps that take away weeks of meager gains.

Uuuuugggggghhhhhhh...

Just a person who likes to hold to a long term investing allocation.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Allah I feel like something hard and flat resembling a shovel fell on my head yesterday - but perhaps the storm will pass early. It may take all week to recoup that devaluation but progress is made in moving forward. It's useful though to keep the fear levels elevated and the sideliners right where they are comfortable. I did have three dividends hit yesterday for reinvestment so all was not lost. I have another two lined up for today.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"With Jupiter fast approaching its conjunction to Neptune in late May through mid-July, there is a geocosmic basis for thinking that any decline right now may hold above those lows of March 6-10, and then be followed by another rally to higher highs." See my post #5415 for the entire article - but only if you are so inclined.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The bottom line is that it is totally incorrect to assume that the massive expansion in recerves created by the Fed is inflationary."

http://safehaven.com/article-13145.htm

 

[turbo23dog]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

That article requires more moxie than I can muster up at the moment. Reading it brought back memories of droool out the left side of my face as my Macro Econ Professor was talking about "spider theory." I didnt' get what that was either.

I'll have to go with Birchtree's synopsis of the article: deflation, not inflation will be the problem.

 

[amoeba]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

i wonder how many peeps here put in for a buy today before noon

Poolman, last year's top returner, risked half his chips

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Poolman, last year's top returner, risked half his chips

That's an excellent observation

When the Top MB Players lean towards the BULL - it's a confirmation

 

[kymtngal]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I am new to the boards, and wish I had known of this a year ago. I would like some knowledgeable opinion on what I am doing...or haven't done. I am retiring in Jan. 2010 with 30 years CSRS. I believe in holding firm, and have not moved anything in years. I am 50% C, 25% I and 25% S, with about 6 grand sitting in the F. I don't plan to touch my TSP until I have to take out the minimum. I was thinking of leaving all $ where it is, and change allocations to 50% C (same), 10% S, 10% I, 15% G and 15% F. Any advice from all the pros out there would be welcomed!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

With the potential of a fresh start to another new bull leg I think you are set - no need IMHO to change anything. I would put new funds all in the C fund for the time you have left and maximize the share accumulation at these low levels. If you wait until required minimum distribution time you will undoubtedly have a nice balance because I believe the future will be bright.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I am new to the boards, and wish I had known of this a year ago. I would like some knowledgeable opinion on what I am doing...or haven't done. I am retiring in Jan. 2010 with 30 years CSRS. I believe in holding firm, and have not moved anything in years. I am 50% C, 25% I and 25% S, with about 6 grand sitting in the F. I don't plan to touch my TSP until I have to take out the minimum. I was thinking of leaving all $ where it is, and change allocations to 50% C (same), 10% S, 10% I, 15% G and 15% F. Any advice from all the pros out there would be welcomed!

You're in the same state as me...

It's amazing how many think it ends with NOISE

50% C, 25% I, and 25% S is EXCELLENT - I'd leave it unchanged.

You have done incredibly well to maintain your positions over the years and subsequently you've done nothing but collect additional shares every 2 weeks.

You are right now at your lowest point - or close to it and over the next few years can expect the best growth ever.

Birchtree is probably the ONLY one that has Bought and Held over the years. Almost everyone else is actively changing back and forth so DO NOT CHANGE YOUR WINNING STYLE. Over the next few years you are way better off leaving it in HIGH RISK and not watching it on a daily basis.


WHEN THE BULL MARKET ENDS (AND IT IS BARELY GETTING STARTED) THEN SHIFT TOWARDS G Fund or F Fund.

 

[kymtngal]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

You're in the same state as me...

It's amazing how many think it ends with NOISE

50% C, 25% I, and 25% S is EXCELLENT - I'd leave it unchanged.

You have done incredibly well to maintain your positions over the years and subsequently you've done nothing but collect additional shares every 2 weeks.

You are right now at your lowest point - or close to it and over the next few years can expect the best growth ever.

Birchtree is probably the ONLY one that has Bought and Held over the years. Almost everyone else is actively changing back and forth so DO NOT CHANGE YOUR WINNING STYLE. Over the next few years you are way better off leaving it in HIGH RISK and not watching it on a daily basis.


WHEN THE BULL MARKET ENDS (AND IT IS BARELY GETTING STARTED) THEN SHIFT TOWARDS G Fund or F Fund.

Thanks so much for your response. All around me are dropping out and moving all new $ to the G...and I am so close to retirement...I almost caved, but didn't. BIRCHTREE responded by putting all into the C.. The $6,000 I have sitting in the F fund...leave it there? I do appreciate your humble opinion!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I forgot to mention that I'd take that $6K out of the stinky F fund and buy some more C fund right now - one can never have enough C fund shares. Someday you may want to spin some of those shares off to the grand kids. When you are ready for RMD try to roll some of that money into a Roth IRA - they make great programs for heirs. You'll certainly encounter a lot of information on this board so have fun and learn before you churn. Once one hits the deep pocket level you can trade a little and roll over $30,000 to $40,000 a point. And that's without much effort You have followed the discipline of dollar cost averaging and I've always maintained that strategy is the redeemer of all portfolios. Would you mind sharing your experiences from the last bear market in 2000-2002 utilizing DCA and how you did? I think it would be instrumental as a demonstration of how buy and hold works as well as the virtue of dumping good money down the well buying those wonderful low priced funds and then chasing them all the way back up through 2007. This is exactly what I did and I've continued my buying all the way down this time also.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks so much for your response.

No problem - but Birchtree should get most of the praise as I am only newly convinced to be 100% BULLISH

All around me are dropping out and moving all new $ to the G...

ALL around you are MAJOR LOSERS - to drop out in the past month is the worst mistake they could possibly make

Going to G FUND is only acceptable if you're getting out of F Fund and you can not go to C, S, or I.

and I am so close to retirement...I almost caved, but didn't.

If you had caved and followed THE LOSERS - you'd regret it forever.

BIRCHTREE responded by putting all into the C..

I'd say you must have misread his response as I can't see Birch telling anyone to put all their eggs in 1 basket.

We had pretty much identical responses and were both writting at the same time. He said in His Humble Opinion - Don't change anything - in other words YOU HAVE A GOOD BLEND.

The $6,000 I have sitting in the F fund...leave it there? I do appreciate your humble opinion!

Here I would agree with Birch - it's just as easy to put it all in C FUND and it's only $6K. Leave the rest where it is and try to let it ride as long as possible.

BULL MARKETS usually last a lot longer than BEAR MARKETS so you can count on 4 to 6 years of excellent gains. The worse the BEAR Market (and this is historic - MONUMENTAL) - the BETTER THE BULL.

GL - You did very well

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

kymtngal,

If you decide to tell us about your last bear market and recession you don't have to be specific about dollar amounts - general terms of how you survived would be fine. I just want to know if a buy and hold approach was beneficial in your particular situation. I don't mean to apply any pressure on you to share your experiences since you are so new. I'm just curious that's all. Thanx.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The previous touch points on this resistance all had pullbacks. That was 1 day pullback yesterday, now we have to see if the Transports will retest the resistance or continue to fall." Transports were up +95.11 to 3019.97 today and maybe we get more tomorrow as a throw over. Yesterday it dropped 170.01.

http://safehaven.com/article-13155.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The Three Stages of a Bear Market Rally. In just six weeks the S&P 500 has climbed about 30% and the broader, small-cap focused Russell 2000 has soared 40%. It's the steepest rally in more than 70 years. The bulls are off and running. Despite it all, very few people believe this rally can last. And it's because there are still so very few people getting in on this rally, odds are it won't end very soon."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/article10152.html

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

That's an excellent observation

When the Top MB Players lean towards the BULL - it's a confirmation

Yes, but this year's current leader Clester went from being in stocks (S&I) to 100% G, What's up with that? :blink:.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yes, but this year's current leader Clester went from being in stocks (S&I) to 100% G, What's up with that? :blink:.

Clester supported his decision by stating 'THE TREND IS OVER'

So in his heart we are still in a BEAR MARKET and this was merely a sustained (and substantial rally). I would say the overwhelming bulk are still convinced this is true.

I don't mean this to take from Clester at all - nor would I say anything derogatory about anyone else - but don't get too caught up in the AT. Where someone is today (me especially) may not reflect where they would be if IFTs were unlimited.

I would have been fully in High Risk the moment I realized the 'New Bull Market' began. So in my situation I could care less about days like this - or 2 days prior - as I see any move down as sheer consolidation. IMHO - at this point leaving High Risk greatly increases your chance of missing inevitable and continual gains.

McDuck, don't be too easily swayed by those at the top of the AT. Gather your own information, search your heart, and determine if we honestly hit a BOTTOM last month. If we did - then overtime we will only go up over the long run.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Mr. Donald Kohn of the Fed has been saying: "There is the possibility that a recovery could be stronger than expected. The recessions that occurred between the end of World War 11 and the 1980s were typically followed by high-growth recovery phases that relatively quickly pushed output back up to its prerecession level." Such an outcome would require the Fed to pull back its stimulus and raise interest rates more quickly than is now expected.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
I realize this is the first time you're knowing me on a 100% Bullish basis - but I guess once I reach that point nothing else really matters. For me it's done - and there is no looking back or even an interest in the day to day because I'm in for the long haul.

I'd have a real hard time keeping up with everything the way you do. It would work against me - just in the way I'm natured - and for me it would be a lot harder keeping check BECAUSE with that would be some degree of confirmation or questioning.

So that's what I most admire about you - by far. I don't understand how anyone can remain BULLISH and not get UNEASY when they are scaning through everything and looking at all the figures and hearing what everyone else is saying.

That's something I can't do. With me I simply totally dismiss any comments that are not BULLISH and let it go. Where you can talk about a Rally in a Bear Market - and not even remotely be suckered in by what would have to be the underlying message.

Anyway - you have a way of making me feel 'Very Green' but that's cool as in comparison I really am.