Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Do you have a chance at the $100K week? I can image how much you've made since early March. Good for you!
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Tom,

I'd have to do $66K to make my first ever $100K week - looks slim at this point. I'll simply have to wait until next week. Not counting today I'm up $336K for the six week period so far. Not bad for a buy and holder. Even the tugboat is perking up. SPX 878 is a 30% gain.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

hey birch, my woman said she wants to plant a birch-tree in our yard, maybe ease our financial woes lol.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'll be checking on the chart slaves over the weekend. It would be a real shame if today was the correction everyone is waiting on. Next week could easily start the second leg of this momentum move. 90% of SPX stocks are now over their 50-day MA. The problem for the sideliners is that an over bought market can stay over bought for several months. I remember one time in the Spring of 1983 the market went straight up for 13 days in a row without a rest. So who knows what the future might bring with all the liquidity that is available.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

If I were hold up on the lily pad my anxiety level would be through the roof - there just will not be any easy entry points - you want to play you'll have to pay. While tendencies suggest that the March bottom will require some form of testing, one cannot rule out an extended V to the upside. What if the market doesn't correct, what if it just continues to climb that wall of worry.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

For those that may be curious the oceanic account took in $51K this week which was better than last week. I hope next week will be gentle. For the 6 week interval I've gained back $353K - still a long way to make that other $700K but I'm confident that I will achieve my goal. At some point I'm going to start buying again. The VIX did close out at 33.94 which should provide some confidence to the bulls next week to stay on course and stampede the bears into covering their short positions. I'm not sure how many $10 price tags on the C fund I'll be allowed to catch on the way up - I'd like to have at least two buys in that range before we explode higher. Everyone is waiting on the second coming and it may never come. Yesterday may have been it. The amount of liquidity is not going to wait until blue skies are evident - soon the institutions will be singing get me in at any price. I'm going to stick to my SPX target for the close of the year at 1700. Seems silly doesn't it - but this rally to many has seemed silly.
 
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Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think today I'm going to take a moment and provide a little history on the power of the bull. When I was much younger I had what Merrill called their sharebuilder accounts for small investors and I also had a regular account that I had put on margin at that time. All during the middle to late 1970s I put $100 every two weeks into the sharebuilder that had around 30 different utilities with dividends reinvested for free. So to make a long story shorter, when the 1982 correction or bear market was trying to drive me into the ground I was forced as a sacrifice to transfer my sharebuilder account into the margin account to side step having to sell equities to meet margin calls. As fate would have it the bull took off about two weeks later amid tremendous skepticism. My broker at the time even came back from his vacation early so as to not miss any of the commissions he would earn because he knew I'd have expendable buying power accumulating. The head guru at Merrill at the time refused to believe the rally was real and kept his broker staff on the sidelines for several months - their clients paid a dear price for that mistake. I managed to make $300K on essentially very little of my own money during the next ten months. That time period in 1982 happened to begin the mega trend secular bull market. So why am I telling you this - well history may not repeat exactly but it does rthyme on occasion. Today could be another historical event with the continuation of the mega trend secular bull market and I've already made $353K in 6 weeks - where will I be at the end of 10 months again - perish the thought. This bull has the potential to last up to seven years going forward and I'll ride the Ducati through every cycle.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Gosh it looks like I'm being a little chatty Kathy today - I plan to spend most of my afternoon pulling the good stuff out of some of my WSJ issues. The VIX is setting us up for an explosive move to 950 and if it drops to 30 that will target SPX of 1000. Is it the Saturn-Uranus opposition? I'll have to check Merriman later. I do believe we are in fact starting to see a point of recognition and many bears will flip before the month is over.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"This rally is now exhibiting a very bearish rising wedge pattern. That is, a line connecting the lows of the move is at a much steeper angle than the line connecting the highs of the move. Such a pattern has preceded the previous devastating declines in the stock market over the past year. All the rallies of the post crash September crisis have been similar in price and length too. The rally from the 7880 low of October 10 to the 9650 high on Election Day, November 4 (also the first of the five Saturn-Uranus oppositions), was about 1770 points and lasted four weeks. The rally from the 7449 of November 21 to the high of 9088 on January 6 covered about 1640 points and lasted 7 weeks. This current rally has now lasted 6 weeks and has gained 1720 points. As you can see, all rallies so far since the crash of September 2008 have lasted 4-7 weeks, and the DJIA has gained between 1640-1770 points. Coincidence? Only if it reverses here. And according to the correspondence of the Venus retrograde period and the presence of the bearish wedge formation chart pattern, it is possible. Ju[iter and Neptune are normally very optimistic and hopeful about the future."

http://www.mmacycles.com
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I thought about posting this bit of information earlier but I can't remember where it came from so here it is regardless - Sugar could probably find it for me. "The +97 weekly AD MCO nominally topped the +96 weekly NY AD MCO posted in late spring 2003. Historically speaking NY composite AD MCO postings near +100 range have been followed by strong advances over the next year or two." Well that ain't no surprise it it? I believe the BKX bank index did close back above 37 - gimme more banks - they are keeping me afloat.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

It will only take a 74% rise from here in the Dow to reach its peak hit in October 2007. We are now at the highest MCSUM level since 6/2007 at +595.58. The NYAD cumulative has just exceeded its' 200 EMA and the 19 EMA and 39 EMA are catching up fast. The S&P 500 is up 28.5% and the DJIA is up 24.2%. The AAII sentiment only has the bulls at 44.14% so we got a long way to go yet before I worry.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Seems reasonable, we have 7.5 months left this month.

Birchtree said:
For those that may be curious the oceanic account took in $51K this week which was better than last week. I hope next week will be gentle. For the 6 week interval I've gained back $353K - still a long way to make that other $700K but I'm confident that I will achieve my goal. At some point I'm going to start buying again. The VIX did close out at 33.94 which should provide some confidence to the bulls next week to stay on course and stampede the bears into covering their short positions. I'm not sure how many $10 price tags on the C fund I'll be allowed to catch on the way up - I'd like to have at least two buys in that range before we explode higher. Everyone is waiting on the second coming and it may never come. Yesterday may have been it. The amount of liquidity is not going to wait until blue skies are evident - soon the institutions will be singing get me in at any price. I'm going to stick to my SPX target for the close of the year at 1700. Seems silly doesn't it - but this rally to many has seemed silly.
Click to expand...
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"As shown in the table below, the 50-day MAs have been cleared comfortably by all the major US indices and the early January highs are the next important targets. As a matter of fact, the Nasdaq Composite Index is already 1.2% above this level. It has to rise by a further 6.7% in order to reach the key 200-day MA - an indicator often used to distinguish between primary bull and bear markets. On the downside, the levels from where the nascent rally commenced on March 9 should hold in order for the upward trend to remain intact. We are seeing nothing less than the greatest asset reflation in history. This is bullish and all that bearish sentiment tells us that there is still plenty of cash on the sidelines, capable of fuelling additional gains in stock markets and commodities over at least the medium term."

http://safehaven.com/article-13121.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Handballer says "Seems reasonable, we have 7.5 months left this month."

He meant to say "we have 7.5 months left this year.":mad::mad:
 
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