Birchtree's Account Talk

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"You have to know which indicators to look at but when you examine them all in their proper context the intermediate-term picture that emerges is much more encouraging than the bleak picture being painted by doom and gloom member Corepuncher."

http://safehaven.com/article-13085.htm

I think short term, we are still in an uptrend, and you may be encouraged by the VIX staying low/not spiking up....yet. I'm looking at S&P 870-900 as top...thinking more likely 870s. Today's pullback was within the context of the bear rally...and may persist for a little while.

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

4/14/2009
Fisher Forecasts Steep Contraction in U.S. GDP
- Bloomberg

4/14/2009
What’s the Tab for the Bailout? Take your Pick
- MSNBC

4/14/2009
Recession Knocks VC Funds to 5 1/2-Year Low
- San Francisco Chronicle

4/14/2009
Bankruptcies Surge Across Country
- Charlotte Observer

4/14/2009
U.S. May Take Loss on GM Bankruptcy
- Detroit Free Press

4/14/2009
Glamour Dims as Hecklers Hit Auto Show
- New York Times

4/14/2009
Landlords Feel Troubled Retailers' Pain
- Washington Post

4/14/2009
Stores Suffer Big Drop in March Sales
- CNN Money

4/14/2009
Delta, AMR May Lead Airlines to $2B Q Loss
- Bloomberg

4/14/2009
More Hotels Facing an Uncertain Future
- New York Times

4/14/2009
Agencies See More People Without Health Ins.
- Arizona Republic

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Today would be a good day to run into the close. I see where both clester and Scribbler have both clucked back to the lily pad trying to lock those previous gains. They are now on ice for the next 11 trading days so the race becomes between optionman and wwwtractor - which one will cluck first.

 

[Medic72]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Danger Danger, I'm in the no Clucking Zone, i might not catch em, but i'm sure gonna try, I dont think the upswing is over yet!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"A lot of people are thinking this is the start of a new bull market or a rally that will last for months. I'm still bearish on the market and believe we won't see a real bottom until next year, but right now I want to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt. There is nothing certain in the stock market and if you want to make money in the market you always have to be open to changing your opinions and considerations of the other side of the story."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/article10049.html

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Bullishness Breaks Its Downtrend".

http://sentimentrader.blogspot.com/2009/04/bullishness-breaks-its-downtrend.html

 

[caymanbrac12]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"A lot of people are thinking this is the start of a new bull market or a rally that will last for months. I'm still bearish on the market and believe we won't see a real bottom until next year, but right now I want to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt. There is nothing certain in the stock market and if you want to make money in the market you always have to be open to changing your opinions and considerations of the other side of the story."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/article10049.html

Yesterday was my best day in a while basically heavy trading the banks which I rarely focus on one sector but usually spread it out. The bank index was up and HBAN, FITB, C, GS, JPM and a few others. The regionals made me a killing - I mean high 6 figures because I focused slightly more on the regionals which payed off. A little nervous about putting down that much in one sector but hey you got too play to win. Hell even American Express doubled on me - it seems like you can't lose if you time these sectors that have been crushed and do a little homework.
There may be some consolidation in the banking sector today but yesterday was one hell of a bang for the buck. Taxes are going to kill me this year but that's part of the game. It beats the other aspects one could fine oneself in.

Still think we have to break cleanly thru 855 on the S&P before we can maybe climb to 960-1000. If we retrace maybe 820 to 830 at this point but this has been an incredible financial result which when I read my statement I still can't believe the gains since the beginning of March. I've increased my overall portfolio by 1/3 so staying out for the first 2 months really paid off.

cayman

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yes, the BKX has been hot since it bottomed at 18 and ran up to 36.47 when only a few were watching. I did participate but not to your level but I'll keep making progress. I see the VIX is softening again down past 36.53 now to 35.91. Today could be a positive day.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

VIX now at 35.25 - as always I'm long and staying strong. It's time to buy PII for the summer fun.

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Be sure to let us know when we've reached the point you've spoken of before, where everyone says get me in at any cost.

It seems from the above that it's above 1000.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think many, many bears are about to get blindsided by the remaining hedge funds when they get ready to put their liquidity back to work. During their panic last year they drove the SPX from 1300 to 900 in a matter of a month - will they do the same this time around only on the upside? The cherry bomb bottle rocket is about to blast off like on one has seen it before - and inorder to participate you gotta be in. I think 1300 would bring back many of the traumatized individual retail investors - just in time for a June correction. That would be a classic move like getting out on the bottom - sure glad I kept my asset base intact. Now today I made some good dough and if I can hang on tomorrow it will be week #6 to be positive.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Now that the Dow has rallied almost 1500 points from its lows, the experts are snapping out of their panic induced stupor, the masses are wondering what in the hell possessed them to dump everything at or very close to the bottom and the few that resisted the urge to surrender and give into panic are finally feeling somewhat vindicated. Acknowledging that fear is far stronger than any other emotion you posses is not an easy task, the next step is to understand that it takes effort, at times super human effort to knock fear out, and prevent it from spiraling into its ugly sister panic. Once you are able to do this, you will have the ability to deal with extreme amounts of fear without reacting like animals; in other words, you will have finally acquired the ability to stop and think instead of just reacting."

http://safehaven.com/article-13097.htm

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree,
I do not care what any one says, emotion is part of investing. Even successful investing.
What we had in the recent past was investing only using emotion and that creates more volatility than any other factor of investing. We can only keep ourselves in check. There are quite a few investors on this MB that hold thier emotions very well and use a good balance of emotion, tech analysis, cross talk and good old fashion Luck.
You are a credit to the MB as are many others.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The monthly momentum/moving average indicator of the SPX has turned positive. That is to say that the 30-day MA just crossed above the 150-day MA, another important piece of the market's seemingly perplexing and rally from the early March low. Both of these upside breaks are longer term in nature, convincing me this rally is still playable."

http://greenfaucet.com Bruce Zaro 4/16/09

 

[Guest2]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The monthly momentum/moving average indicator of the SPX has turned positive. That is to say that the 30-day MA just crossed above the 150-day MA, another important piece of the market's seemingly perplexing and rally from the early March low. Both of these upside breaks are longer term in nature, convincing me this rally is still playable."

http://greenfaucet.com Bruce Zaro 4/16/09

Bear Rally or New Bull Market, in either case, James just posted the P&F
Chart for today and supports more upward movement. Crossovers and
technicals need to hold for awhile. The Melt-Up contunues !

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
I came knowing nothing - and I'm pretty much leaving the same way. Never heard of the E Wave Theory or any of that stuff. I guess 'for a moment' there seems to be some substantial validity to this Theory - yet no one is able hit the lows and the highs with any degree of reasonable certainty.

Of course I realize since becoming actively involved in 10/07 things have been incredibly bizarre. We have little choice but to be influenced by the Media and its constant assessment of the Economic circumstances and ALWAYS - and without exception - the talking heads have an explanation for why we have a good day or a bad one.

With all things considered - there is no reason why the current rally has stretched out as long as it has - there really is nothing to substantiate this event apart from something beyond what we would consider LOGICAL (or something manipulating the system) and I personally do not believe it is manipulation.

In the end I have to conclude that Natural Laws dominate the overall conditions of Expansion and Contraction and that the E Waves and Kress Cycles point to a more precise pattern that is likely extremely accurate. I guess I am somewhat puzzled by the B&H method because it ignores everything - except a belief that in the long run things will always get better.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

My friend things always do get better. But this buy and holder does not ignore anything - I do a lot of homework to be intelligent enough to simply hold my positions. I take some profits when necessary and I also absorb pain when necessary. I took in $336K in six weeks not counting today and that was because I held my asset base intact. Dollar cost averaging is the redeemer of all portfolios - you just have to maintain discipline. Who knows, I may actually catch you in the next ten trading days - wouldn't that be a pleasant surprise. Snort!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I was just thinking there are reasons the bull has four legs - we are currently experiencing leg #1. How high - who cares. Just clear the roadways please.

 

[Medic72]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Snort snort snort!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Snort to you too - the VIX just put in 33.78. Let's rock the last hour again. It could be worth another 100 points at least. I could certainly use another $35K day.